The Offseason

[Deputy Nutz]

I have a similar problem. I blame it on my ADHD. The draft allows me to stay busy with something that is at once meaningful and meaningless, important and unimportant, surprising and predictable. I prepare charts that make me feel happy when a knowledgeable guess is confirmed, and then the charts make me feel dumb when I can't get a single pick right in the second half of the first round. I root for the Packers to pick players that probably aren't even on Ted's board. And then, as in the 2009 draft, something amazing happens as in the legendary TT trade up to get Matthews!

My family cannot fathom the bonds that hold me to the draft, and I know many true green and gold smart Packer fans that are content to wait until the 7th round is over before finding out what happened. I admit I have a problem but until my family does an intervention they are stuck with me brooding over my notebooks and websites in the days before the draft, and they are stuck with me treating them like alien invaders to my private world when they need me to leave the television and return to their planet.

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

[mraynrand]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

IT depends on the circumstances. But he can hit them, and others can't. I guess it doesn't hurt to bring in a competitive camp leg, you need an extra one or two anyway. Maybe the contrast will shock you.

[mraynrand]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

DVR

[Patler]

He is average at best, and what good is it to send a kicker out for a 50+ field goal if the chances of making them are less than half? The bottom line is that Crosby hasn't had any competition in camp, so we simply don't know if there is a better kicker out there for the Packers. 78% was his average this year, which ranked him 30th in the NFL.

David Akers has been named to the Pro-Bowl five times and a first team All-Pro four time. Let's compare:

Overall:
Akers - 294/359 81.9%
Crosby - 107/137 78.1%

0-19 yards
Akers - 5/5 100%
Crosby - 4/4 100%

20-29 yards
Akers - 95/96 99%
Crosby - 36/37 97.3%

30-39 yards
Akers - 96/109 88.1%
Crosby - 31/38 81.6%

40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

50+
Akers - 15/32 46.9%
Crosby - 10/21 47.6%

Two things jump out at me, looking at those stats:

- The difference at 30-39 yards. That seems to be Crosby's only weakness. However, his sample size is somewhat small, thus magnifying the significance of each miss. If he "fixes" that he compares favorably to a perennial Pro-Bowl/All Pro kicker.

- 21 of Crosby's 137 attempts have been from 50 or more. That's 15% of his attempts. 32 of Akers' 359 attempts have been from 50 yards or more. That's 9%. For Crosby, 1 of every 7 is from 50+. For Akers, 1 of 11. Since that is clearly where success drops significantly, kicking that frequently from that distance hurts Crosby's overall success rate a lot.


Really, we should expect this. For most of Crosby's career the Packers have been very successful scoring TDs when they get inside the red zone. As a result, Crosby has fewer chances for the most makeable FGs. Couple that with MM's willingness to try 50-55 yarders whenever possible, and you will have a fieldgoal kicker that has almost no chance to match the success rate of kickers on teams that struggle to score TDs in the red zone.

[Deputy Nutz]

Well I guess Crosby is the "bee's knees" then. I am sorry I am not sold on the progress he has made, and I would rather have a rock of a kicker from 45 yards and in than one that has a 47% chance of making a 54 yard field goal.

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out? At this point in his career he should be counted on to nail that kick, and I don't think many of you can express that kind of faith in him.

[mraynrand]

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out?

40-49 yards
Akers - 83/117 70.9%
Crosby - 26/37 70.3%

I trust him about as much as most of the better kickers, maybe not as much as Vinatieri, but a whole lot more than Nick Folk. It doesn't matter, if it comes down to a 46 yard FG, and it's Crosby or Vinatieri I'm going to be pacing the room. If it's Nick Folk, I'll be loading my pistol.

[Patler]

Well I guess Crosby is the "bee's knees" then. I am sorry I am not sold on the progress he has made, and I would rather have a rock of a kicker from 45 yards and in than one that has a 47% chance of making a 54 yard field goal.

Crosby is servicable, no doubt, but do you trust him with the game on the line from 46 yards out? At this point in his career he should be counted on to nail that kick, and I don't think many of you can express that kind of faith in him.

Would you trust him any less than you would trust Akers to make that kick? Their success rates are almost identical from 40+.
One of my problems with MM (and with many fans) is that they seem to expect a 40+ yard field goal should be almost as certain as an extra point kick. It's not, for any kicker. A ball shaped like a football is shaped, kicked broadside so it will either float or tumble is not very stable aerodynamically. It will not always fly "true". Over a distance of 40+ yards it will wonder, even without the outside influence of wind. From the center of the field, the kicker has a tolerance of 9'3' on either side of dead center. If the kick comes from the hash mark, the tolerance is less due to the angle. That's not a lot from 40 yards away or more.

[mraynrand]

OK, just for fun, here's Mason Crosby's 2010 (regular season) misses: (he was 22 of 28)

First miss: at Chicago, Mason was 1 of 2 - the 'miss' was blocked (Loss)

Two misses at Washington Mason's makes were from 52 and 36; misses were 1) from 48 wide right and 2) off the left upright from 53 yards (on grass) at the end of regulation; Packer lose 16-13 in OT


Missed one of four in 9-0 win at Jets

Missed one of 2 in 45-7 shellacking of Dallas

Missed chip shot in first of three attempts in win over SF

I guess you could say Crosby cost the Packers the Redskins game, or at least could have won it for them


His kicks in the other games didn't decide any outcomes

One recovered onside kicks (at NE) didn't alter outcome.

21.8 average return pretty close to average. Touch backs at all time low of 4 after averaging 14 (Scheme?)

Miskick set up huge return at NE - but would you blame the longest return for a lineman on Crosby's kick?

OK, I'm officially bored now. You probably are too. That wasn't really fun at all.

[Patler]

Miskick set up huge return at NE - but would you blame the longest return for a lineman on Crosby's kick?

Miskick? I don't think that was a miskick at all. I think it is what they wanted to do with 2 minutes left in the half. Kick it short to a lineman at the 20, 25 yard line and have him mishandle it or fall on it with little or no return. On their previous kickoff they kicked to the 25 and Crumpler returned it 4 yards.

[pbmax]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

This. The draft schedule stinks to high heaven now. Ruins it as a weekend event.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

Agreed.

[HarveyWallbangers]

DVR

Agree with this too. Maybe the wife doesn't need to know that the draft isn't an all day Saturday event.

[mraynrand]

Miskick? I don't think that was a miskick at all. I think it is what they wanted to do with 2 minutes left in the half. Kick it short to a lineman at the 20, 25 yard line and have him mishandle it or fall on it with little or no return. On their previous kickoff they kicked to the 25 and Crumpler returned it 4 yards.

Yeah, it wasn't supposed to be a normal kick off, but I read somewhere that he was supposed to get it farther down the field. Anyway, I don't think the outcome of that kick off was his fault - after all, he was illegally blocked in the back...

[mraynrand]

Agree with this too. Maybe the wife doesn't need to know that the draft isn't an all day Saturday event.

Just don't fast-forward through the commercials and turn the volume down when there is some ad for a show/event that already happened...

[Little Whiskey]

Nice to see you post again, nutz. this forum misses some of your insights.

[Lurker64]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

I think that the NFL draft would be greatly improved if they would just switch the first round to friday night, if they want to do it by itself in prime time, and then do rounds 2-3 (the ones in which championships are built) on Saturday and finish up on Sunday. Sadly, I don't think that would happen.

I have to say, though, that I like the 1/2-3/4-7 split better than I liked the 1-2/3-7 split... that 5 round day was really very long. 1-3/4-7 was pretty good too.

[Guiness]

I used to love the draft, and I still won't miss it. I make it an event, but they way they lay it out now with only the first round on a Thursday night really wrecks it for me. I could commit a full Saturday to the first 3 rounds of the draft, now Saturday is a throw a way day, one where I will be expected to do work around the house. The NFL really screwed this up.

Agreed. Splitting it up the way they have rots.

[SavedByGrace]

Guys, thanks for the warm welcome!

Just a few thoughts:

I am not a huge Ryan Grant fan. His style of running is conducive to a short career. His straightforward, smashmouth mentality is fun to watch. But it hasn't been hugely successful (not necessarily this year), which is interesting seeing that we have such a deadly pass attack. We definitely don't have a good line, which hurts, but how many more years does Grant actually have? I'd love to see DeAngelo Williams in green and gold. He could catch some passes out of the backfield and be a Jamaal Charles type of guy.

I agree that the Packers MUST address their O-Line this offseason. With Tauscher probably done and Clifton nearing the end (yes I know he made the Pro Bowl this year, but he's going to be 35), there's not a lot of experience and/or good players. Bulaga is going to be solid, but Colledge...ugh.

Somebody a few posts back talked about moving Barnett outside, which I think would be a pretty good idea. But didn't he reject the idea a few years ago? We'll have a lot of depth a LB if we can resign some of these guys we picked up as fill-ins this year. Might we draft Clay's little bro, Casey, to compliment him on the other side in the mid rounds of the draft?

Finally, I think this Mason Crosby talk is interesting. Not that I think Crosby is bad, but I'd like to see the Packers upgrade. The guy has a huge leg, but he definitely has struggled with accuracy this year. He's been better as of late, but he hasn't been great. I like Crosby, but I do wonder whether or not upgrading him is a priority...probably not.

[Deputy Nutz]

Barnett rejected it a couple of years ago when the Packers drafted Hawk and Abdul Hodge. The thought was that Barnett would be asked to move to the strong side and Hodge would play the middle. That was in the 4-3 defense where the strong side backer ate up blockers, ala Poppinga. Barnett had every reason to turn that down, considering how poorly Hodge performed in the NFL.

In the 3-4 Barnett would have a better opportunity to make big plays.