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12 wins guarantees playoffs, since they will win the division outright.
11 wins gets us in, UNLESS, the one loss is to the Bears and the Bears winning the rest of the games...then it goes to the tie-breakers, which goes all the way down to best won-loss in common games. Since we lost to Tennessee, and the Bears will have won against Tennessee, my guess is that the Bears would have the advantage. Next you would have to check whether or not it would be possible for enough wild card teams to have 11 wins or more AND have the tie-breaker over us.
Basically, almost guaranteed.
10 wins, there are many scenarios where they would not get in, but none of them are very likely.
Very likely.
9 wins, any one's guess.
Probably a 60/40 proposition.
8 wins, perfect storm of events to make it.
11 wins gets us in, UNLESS, the one loss is to the Bears and the Bears winning the rest of the games...then it goes to the tie-breakers, which goes all the way down to best won-loss in common games. Since we lost to Tennessee, and the Bears will have won against Tennessee, my guess is that the Bears would have the advantage. Next you would have to check whether or not it would be possible for enough wild card teams to have 11 wins or more AND have the tie-breaker over us.
Basically, almost guaranteed.
10 wins, there are many scenarios where they would not get in, but none of them are very likely.
Very likely.
9 wins, any one's guess.
Probably a 60/40 proposition.
8 wins, perfect storm of events to make it.
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