Packers Rush Defense Struggles

[red]

i have to also agree that i think our run d has been pretty damn solid this year. turner is just a monster. he did to us what he's done to everyone

[Pugger]

I voted Zombo. Atlanta bottled up CM3 and so we had little pass rush. Turner is a LOAD and is built like a brick out house. I'm sure our DBs are sore today.

[hoosier]

I think the run defense this year suffers beyond that. Football Outsiders takes into account the result of the play: so the 14 yard gain by the punter on 4th and 15 is viewed as unsuccessful compared to yardage statistics, which would show it positively. So that play would be compared to others that failed to gain a first down when that was the only successful outcome. Same with QB scrambles that result in something other than progress toward a score.

By that same token, FO didn't think the Packer run D last year was the best in the league (it was 5th). But that is a substantial drop off none the less. By the simplest measure, yards per attempt, the Packers are surrendering 4.5 yards a crack this year compared to 3.6 a year ago. That is not good. I think the perception of the defense is off and it is being hurt by its previous strength. These FO numbers are prior to Atlanta's results, the averages includes that game.

I also think the Packers have failed, in multiple games to get the lead and take the other side out of their run game in the second half. But that is just an impression, I haven't tallied the scores. But that should affect the totals more than the average.

I don't know, for some reason I feel better about the Packers defense this year than I did last year. Maybe part of it is they have overperformed after getting gutted by injuries and self-inflicted wounds. But if you asked me which I would rather have, the 2009 Packers defense which was statistically stellar against the run but showed a propensity to get smoked by high caliber passing attacks, or the 2010 version which has shown some bend against the run but which pressures the QB and has yet to get lit up through the air, I would take this year's version in a heartbeat. And then they would probably promptly go and make Alex Smith look like the second coming of Steve Young.

[pbmax]

hoosier- I feel better about the pass defense, especially at CB where Williams and Shields appear to be light years ahead of Bell and Bush. And that is despite Chillar and Barnett being out for long stretches.

harv - If you wish to account for QB scrambles with the Pass D that is fine. But those yards produce first downs and keep possessions and scoring chances alive the same as RB runs or completed passes. I would bet they are worse than passes because the chance for a fumble from a QB run is not as high as an INT or fumble from getting hit in the pocket.

Eliminate Vicks' yards (which is problematic for comparison since we aren't doing it for the rest of the league) and the Packers are still allowing 4.27 yards per carry (1135/264). This year the Packers have allowed 58 first downs by rushing, last year it was 68 for the season (current pace = 84).

[pbmax]

Bob McGinn covers the Packers Run D and makes the following statements on JSO:

Based on rankings, the fall of a run defense from No. 1 in 2009 to No. 18 this year might appear to be a serious blemish. But the yields of 112.6 and 4.50 per carry would be 90.2 and 4.05 if the composite quarterbacks' rushing totals (30-246-8.2) were eliminated.

But he doesn't explain that the filtered RB numbers are still worse than the overall rush D last year.

My first inclination is that the improvement is the Packer pass D has caused teams to shift to the run. But both the metrics for plays, Pass Attempts and Run Attempts are up slightly per game, though run atts have increased more. Total yards yielded are up in both pass and run. So perhaps the offensive struggles have turned over more opportunities for the defense to be on the field? Perhaps, but they are yielding more yards per play than last year.

Turnovers are down per game (1.9 per game versus 2.5 per game last year). Net yards per game on pass plays is nearly the same (5.5 vs. 5.6) and first downs yielded have increased for both the pass and run.

In short, the Packers are yielding fewer points and playing worse defense by many measures. The factor that holds all this together is passing touchdowns allowed. As McGinn covers, both in Red Zone and long TD catch areas, the Packers are playing far better. Teams may be running a bit more (and QBs are running more) and passing a bit more successfully, but they are not finding the endzone and all the improvement is in the passing game.

I think the secondary explains a lot of this. Despite an injury to safety, they have been healthy and Peprah has performed better than the starters and backups at safety last year. Woodson may not be the DPOY, but he and Williams have been as good or better than last year's multiple combos. And perhaps most significantly, Shields (and a couple of others) at nickel have been better than the late years combo platter of Bush, Underwood and Bell. Playing more nickel also might some of this, but I have not come across year to date numbers for this.

The front seven has not been as effective, but they can still rush the QB, more effectively than last year even. Even with Capers blitzing large numbers less (there is a danger here with Matthews injured). This defense does not help its offense as much in field position (turnovers and yards per drive), but it is keeping the game closer. If Special Teams could find a way to be mediocre and help the O, this team would be an absolute force.

[Fritz]

Injuries and Jolly's absence. Raji is playing too many snaps and is wearing down. Had Jolly been here, and Neal not gotten hurt, you'd have a more stout defensive line.

[pbmax]

The Numbers:

[MichiganPackerFan]

Clay Matthews didn't do much in the third quarter. Started out as the first half defensive player of the year, but now seems far short of that.

[mission]

CM3 had Smith in the grasp a couple times ... what he did yesterday is exactly what he's done all year. Give him a sack on one of those and everyone's talking about how good of a game he had with all his hurries and allowing Zombo and Jenkins to get sacks.

[SnakeLH2006]

Personally, I believe our DL has been pretty good up front. But, with depth issues, and injuries are backups are all but gone (Harrell, Neal, etc.) I'm sure it's taking a toll on the bigger guys (Pickett has had nagging issues and Raji has had to play huge amounts of snaps in 2010).