10 biggest 07 Draft Duds (2 Packers make list)

[motife]

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Rookie+of+the+Year+Meter/2007/rookie16.htm

Rookie of the Year Meter
A look at the duds of the first-year crop
By Matt Sohn
Dec. 26, 2007

For the past 16 weeks, we’ve used this spot to chronicle all the standouts, surprises, movers and shakers among the NFL’s freshmen. But as is the case every year, the 2007 rookie crop has produced its share of duds in addition to the studs. From both a physical and mental standpoint, the jump from the college game to the professional ranks is littered with obstacles. Some rookies take a year to emerge, some will take a couple years, and inevitably, some of the first-year fizzlers will wind up as career busts. Taking into account the expectations of the player, here’s a rundown of the 10 most disappointing rookies of ’07 (Players whose seasons were cut short due to injury, such as Bills LB Paul Posluszny and Broncos DE Jarvis Moss, are excluded):

1. Saints WR Robert Meachem (first round, 27th overall): Has yet to appear in a game. Unable to grasp Sean Payton’s playbook, the Saints have essentially redshirted him.

2. Steelers LB Lawrence Timmons (first round, 15th overall): Has been outplayed by the team’s second-round linebacker, LaMarr Woodley. Mostly has been a special-teams guy.

3. Patriots S Brandon Meriweather (first round, 24th overall): The only 2007 Patriots draftee still on the roster, he’s not even a regular in DB-heavy sub packages.

4. Packers DT Justin Harrell (first round, 16th overall): The masses who called this a wasted pick have, thus far, been vindicated.

5. Dolphins QB John Beck (second round, 40th overall): Unlike JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, Beck has logged significant time under center, and has only exacerbated the Dolphins’ woes. Even glimpses of potential were in short supply.

6. Falcons DE Jamaal Anderson (first round, eighth overall): Despite starting from Week One, he hasn’t recorded a single sack. Nothing special against the run, either.

7. Chargers WR Craig “Buster” Davis (first round, 30th overall): His lack of production necessitated the trade for Chris Chambers.

8. Panthers WR Dwayne Jarrett (second round, 45th overall): Panthers cut Keyshawn Johnson shortly after drafting Jarrett. Oops.

9. Packers RB Brandon Jackson (second round, 63rd overall): Most figured the former Cornhusker would emerge as the Packers’ workhorse. Instead, his dismal performances helped open the door for revelation Ryan Grant.

10. Cardinals DT Alan Branch (second round, 33rd overall): Dropped like a rock in the weeks leading up to the draft. Now we know why.

On to the head of the class...

1. 49ers LB Patrick Willis
Season stats (15 games): 162 tackles, three sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery
Week 16 stats: 20 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble
Last week’s ranking: 1
Stock: Rising
Much like Adrian Peterson in his breakout game at Soldier Field in Week Six, Willis’ latest performance solidifies his standing among the league’s elite at his position. Granted, the NFC South champion Buccaneers benched their starters for much of the game, but a 20-tackle, two-sack outing is remarkable regardless of the situation. With Willis leading the charge, the Niners limited Earnest Graham to 21 yards on nine carries.

2. Browns OT Joe Thomas
Last week’s ranking: 3
Stock: Steady
Credit the weather, the Bengals’ secondary and poor decisions with Derek Anderson’s shoddy showing. Don’t point the finger at the offensive line. The line has certainly been better, but Thomas was solid. Jonathan Ogden’s selection to the Pro Bowl over Thomas proves that name recognition is as important as performance in determining who goes to Hawaii.

3. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson
Season stats (13 games): 227 carries for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns, 19 receptions for 268 yards and one touchdown, three lost fumbles
Week 16 stats: nine carries for 27 yards, two receptions for 21 yards
Last week’s ranking: 2
Stock: Falling
Behind the effort of an inspired Redskins defense, Peterson was unable to get anything going for the second time in the past three games. With the Skins getting out to a big lead, the ground-oriented Vikings had to go to the air, further diminishing Peterson’s impact. Minnesota is now in need of outside help if Peterson’s rookie campaign is to extend into the postseason.

4. Jets LB David Harris
Season stats (15 games): 116 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery
Week 16 stats: eight tackles, one sack, one forced fumble
Last week’s ranking: 5
Stock: Steady
Not only does he consistently put up impressive numbers, but Harris seemingly delivers at least one attention-grabbing highlight each game. On Sunday against the Titans, it was his backside pursuit and subsequent strip-sack of Vince Young. Once the Jets acquire a couple beefy D-linemen to tie up blockers, Harris will evolve from rookie standout to perennial Pro Bowler.

5. Panthers LB Jonathan Beason
Season stats (15 games): 130 tackles, one interception, one fumble recovery
Week 16 stats: 12 tackles
Last week’s ranking: 6
Stock: Steady
The Panthers offered only tepid resistance to the Cowboys’ ground game, with most of the effort coming from their rookie middle linebacker. A force from Week One, only Willis and D.J. Williams of the Broncos sit above Beason, who's tied with Nick Barnett of the Packers, on the NFL’s tackle charts. Whether or not John Fox is replaced at season’s end, the Panthers have themselves the consummate defensive centerpiece already in place.

6. Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe
Season stats (15 games): 69 receptions for 982 yards and five touchdowns
Week 16 stats: eight receptions for 97 yards and one touchdown
Last week’s ranking: 9
Stock: Rising
Damon Huard, who replaced a nicked-up Brodie Croyle, did the smartest thing a Chiefs quarterback can do: Get the ball to Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. Bowe feasted on the Lions’ maligned secondary, outperforming the more heralded Calvin Johnson (two receptions for 47 yards). Bowe needs just 18 receiving yards in the finale to become the rare rookie wideout to reach 1,000 yards.

7. Jets CB Darrelle Revis
Season stats (15 games): 82 tackles, three interceptions, one forced fumble
Week 16 stats: two tackles
Last week’s ranking: 4
Stock: Falling
It’s difficult for a cornerback to have a statement game against the Titans’ vertically challenged passing attack. Next week’s matchup against the Chiefs’ Bowe, however, is a different story. Whichever rookie gets the best of the other will go a long way in deciding which teams enters the offseason with some momentum after falling from ’06 playoff participant to ’07 flop.

8. Bills RB Marshawn Lynch
Season stats (12 games): 258 carries for 1,010 yards and seven touchdowns, 17 receptions for 162 yards, one lost fumble
Week 16 stats: 18 carries for 70 yards and one touchdown, two receptions for 42 yards
Last week’s ranking: 10
Stock: Steady
With an 88-yard TD scamper capping off a 151-yard gem of a game, the Giants’ Ahmad Bradshaw was the awe-inspiring rookie running back in Orchard Park on Sunday. For Lynch, it was business as usual. Few ankle-breaking shimmies, but a whole lot of high-impact collisions. You don’t see many tailbacks run with as much authority as Lynch, whose style exemplifies the city of Buffalo’s blue-collar mentality.

9. Redskins S LaRon Landry
Season stats (15 games): 90 tackles, 1½ sacks, one fumble recovery
Week 16 stats: three tackles
Last week’s ranking: 8
Stock: Steady
If the Redskins end up securing the NFC’s last playoff berth, Landry and his defensive cohorts deserve as much praise as QB Todd Collins. However, they would just as soon settle for a Tylenol and an ice bath. After winning consecutive games against Brandon Jacobs’ Giants and Adrian Peterson’s Vikings, they finish up with Marion Barber’s Cowboys. Seeing as how the Skins drafted Landry in part because of his sustained excellence throughout his four-year career at LSU, a brutal stretch run won’t pass as a viable excuse should Landry regress.

10. Bengals CB Leon Hall
Season stats (15 games): 64 tackles, five interceptions, one forced fumble
Week 16 stats: five tackles, one interception
Last week’s ranking: Honorable mention
Stock: Steady
Hall will still give up the occasional deep ball, but he has gambled more judiciously as the season has progressed. It’s no coincidence that since he entered the starting lineup in Week 10, the Bengals’ leaky pass defense has steadily improved. The secondary was at its best last Sunday, containing the Browns’ aerial attack while baiting Derek Anderson into throwing four interceptions.

Honorable mention (In no particular order)

Bills QB Trent Edwards: The only rookie quarterback who can be satisfied with his season.

Texans DT Amobi Okoye: Testament that the “rookie wall” is no myth.

Buccaneers S Tanard Jackson: Unlike fellow Syracuse safeties Tebucky Jones and Donovin Darius, Jackson has exceeded expectations in the NFL.

Giants CB Aaron Ross: Should hang his head in shame when reviewing film of Lee Evans’ TD grab.

Dolphins C Samson Satele: One of a small handful of Dolphins secure in a starting role.

49ers OT Joe Staley: Worth a high first-rounder in ’08? Patriots think so.

Titans S Michael Griffin: Three interceptions in the past four games.

Jaguars S Reggie Nelson: Fumbling immediately after nabbing an interception is a microcosm of his inconsistent season.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson: “Can’t miss” prospect yet to redefine the WR position.

Ravens OG Ben Grubbs: Sure thing on an offense rife with uncertainty.

Best of the rest (In no particular order)

Broncos RB Selvin Young
Raiders TE Zach Miller
Buccaneers OG Arron Sears
Packers WR James Jones
Colts DT Ed Johnson
Chiefs RB Kolby Smith
Cowboys PK Nick Folk
Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez
Chargers S Eric Weddle

[The Leaper]

I wouldn't call Harrell a dud yet...he's been OK when he has played, and DTs have historically taken several years to develop at the next level. Jackson certainly belongs on the list. Green Bay had no RB to speak of and Jackson was a 2nd round pick. He rarely has shown anything that makes you think he can be a player at the next level.

[b bulldog]

jackson isn't explosive and he is small

[The Leaper]

Also, Mason Crosby deserved mention somewhere as well...the guy is only leading all NFL kickers in points scored.

[b bulldog]

he's a kicker

[The Leaper]

he's a kicker

They mentined Folk, who isn't doing any better or worse than Crosby IMO...although he was drafted higher. As such, Crosby is the better pick if you have to split hairs.

[SkinBasket]

he's a kicker

They mentined Folk, who isn't doing any better or worse than Crosby IMO...although he was drafted higher. As such, Crosby is the better pick if you have to split hairs.

Yeah I noticed that too... in the same article where he laments the effect of name recognition on Pro Bowl picks.

[ND72]

Jackson certainly belongs on the list. Green Bay had no RB to speak of and Jackson was a 2nd round pick. He rarely has shown anything that makes you think he can be a player at the next level.

Traditionally, RB's don't even play in their rookie seasons. Lawrence Marooney, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Cadillac Williams are few RB's that play. Ronnie Brown was a backup, but did get time, and is pretty good. Frank Gore rarely got on the field his rookie year....he turned out ok. You cannot bank anything on a RB's rookie season. When the Packers took Jackson, TJ & Steve Young both said on espn don't watch his rookie year, pay attention to his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seasons. Jackson has ran better in the 2nd half of the season when he's had his chances....The offensive line has also started to block better as well, which helps. If Ryan Grant had started the season behind the way the OL was playing, you'd probably want that guy cut also. Big difference when the OL actually makes holes for a RB.

[The Leaper]

Traditionally, RB's don't even play in their rookie seasons.

Good RBs can step in from day one and contribute. Nearly all NFL observers remark that RB is one of the EASIEST positions to transition from college football to the NFL.

The rookie RBs who don't play typically have a capable veteran in front of them. As I clearly pointed out, Jackson had no capable veteran in front of him...which is why he most certainly is a dud. He had every chance to step in and succeed with a productive passing game in support. Don't give me the OL failure crap. Jackson was averaging about 2.5 ypc during the first 5-6 games of the year...when the other RBs were still averaging around 4.0 ypc with the same crappy OL blocking for them. Jackson hasn't looked like an NFL RB at any point this year in any capacity. That isn't good.

You point out a guy like Frank Gore as someone who did not contribute? What are you talking about ND? Gore had 600 yards and 3 TDs for the 49ers...and was their LEADING RUSHER that season on a putrid offense that offered him no assistance. He didn't have a rejuvinated Brett Favre taking pressure off of him. He didn't have Driver or Jennings out there as threats downfield. He only started one game, but he averaged almost 5 yards per carry and was certainly viewed as the RB of the future by midseason. WTF is Jackson viewed as right now...other than a waste?

There are NUMEROUS rookie RBs that impress every year. Lynch, Peterson, and Young are 3 prime examples this year. Claiming that you can't judge a RB until later years is useless...because the evidence is clear that most RBs worth a damn at least look NFL ready in limited duty as rookies.

[oregonpackfan]

I have voiced my disappointment with Harrell as well. There are supporters who claim a rookie DT needs two full seasons to reach his potential. Perhaps it is true, perhaps it is not.

I remain unconvinced thus far that Harrell's pick was worth it. Here is a #1 pick whose skills are so marginal that he was declared inactive for almost half the games this season!

I don't expect a #1 pick to automatically start but I do expect him to make a significant contribution to the team. I also expect him to do more than just "Hold his own" in the line. He should be able to make penetration once in a while and meet the running back behind the line of scrimmage. In addition, he should be able to put some semblance of a pass rush on the quarterback.

If there was ever a time for Harrell to "Step up" and make a contribution, it is now. There is one game remaining in the regular season and at least one more in post season. Let us all watch his progress, or lack of it.

[The Leaper]

I remain unconvinced thus far that Harrell's pick was worth it. Here is a #1 pick whose skills are so marginal that he was declared inactive for almost half the games this season!

Go back and check the history of first round DTs and their production in their rookie year against their future production. Nearly ALL high picks at DT struggle during their first few seasons in the league.

Case in point...current uber-DT Albert Haynesworth. As a first round rookie pick, he started only three games...and he really did not become a true force in the middle until his 4th year in the league.

If you think we are making this stuff up, try going back and finding first round DTs who tore up the league as rookies. I guarantee you'll find about 10 guys who didn't do much of anything to every 1 you find that actually was productive.

The bottom line is that all of these guys get by in college SOLELY on their athletic dominance...but that won't cut it when they reach the NFL. Their game is not fundamentally sound, and they need to learn how to use their hands and leverage properly.

Harrell is a huge man with pretty good athletic ability. If he has a work ethic, he'll become a good player. He's proven to at least be capable when thrown to the wolves as a rookie...which is a good sign at this point. He'll only get better from here, barring laziness.

However, his pick was a waste in terms of helping the team now. A capable DB or OL prospect might be more useful to us in a playoff push this year...and probably would even still be of more use next season. Harrell is more likely to pay dividends years down the road...and why Thompson is a good GM who is looking ahead, not just at what is needed now. He needs to do both...and you can't sacrifice either one for the other and maintain a healthy roster long term.

[KYPack]

I think the guy was too hard on some of these players and I found other errors in his piece. Harrell has had a rookie year. He has played OK at times, poorly at others. But he's playing in a tough spot. That's down where the men play & he's still a kid. I think he's done OK.

Jackson hasn't done much, but he ain't a flop for a slow 1st year, either. If he gets cut next year, he's a flop. Let's wait to find that out.

On the error side, Leon Hall of the Bengals has started all year, not in the 10th game as the article notes. And he got burned a nice golden brown 'til his OJT kicked in and he learned more about the gig. If this was a mid-year review around game 8, Hall would be listed as a flop.

He rebounded, some of these other "flops" will, too.

[The Leaper]

I think the guy was too hard on some of these players and I found other errors in his piece.

Trying to label anyone a true flop after 15 games of their career is pretty dumb. Very few guys can be designated as complete failures just 15 games into their career.

I do think Jackson deserves to be on the list though. He was practically handed the job in camp due to circumstances...and he never once looked like a guy capable of taking that job and running with it. While Wynn or Grant showed flashes of talent, Jackson seemed to always wallow in mediocrity.

In his first 3 games, he had 38 rushing attempts. He never had a run over 10 yards. He averaged 2.56 ypc. He was poor in his pass protection capacity. He didn't really have one moment where you said "see, that is why he was a 2nd round pick".

Some might say his OL didn't help him...OK. Let's go to weeks 9-11...when Grant was beginning to put it together and the OL clearly wasn't as putrid. Jackson had 12 more carries as a reserve...for a measly 32 yards. He finally did break off an 11 yard gainer...good for you, Brandon. That means you averaged 1.9 ypc on your other 11 carries.

Jackson has blown goats this year...that doesn't mean I will label him a flat out flop just yet...but he's well on his way and deserves to be one of the top 10 disappointments as a rookie in 2007.

[Bossman641]

I think Jackson has showed a lot more over the second half of the season. Too early to call him a bust. I hope he gets a good amount of PT on Sunday.

Not a bust, but definitely a disappointment so far.

[FritzDontBlitz]

. Packers RB Brandon Jackson (second round, 63rd overall): Most figured the former Cornhusker would emerge as the Packers’ workhorse. Instead, his dismal performances helped open the door for revelation Ryan Grant.

I agree Jackson has been a bit of a disappointment, but he looked decent in garbage time duty this past Sunday.

Ryan "the revelation" Grant. I like it.