Packers keeping their options open for draft

[Brando19]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=721383

Will this be the year when Ted Thompson dips his toe into the turbulent trade waters of a National Football League draft and makes the first move upward of his career?

[RashanGary]

I just wrote McGinn an email because I thought his comment that Thompson has never been one to take a win now approach was wrong.


Thompson wants to win now and over an extended period of time. Just because he's not going to go commit errors that he knows are errors in the name of desperation doesn't mean he doesn't want to win now.

In fact, he turned it around faster than anyone thought possible so obviously he his decisions are ones that help the team win now.

[Joemailman]

With this draft being deep at OT, TE and CB, I think TT would have little incentive to trade up. The exception would be if there is an OLB they really like.

[MJZiggy]

I love very specific, definite articles like this one. Eh. He may trade up if there's someone he likes (but he doesn't see much reason to with a deep draft, or he could draft in his original spot, but don't rule out trading down.

btw, Brando, you're not supposed to post the story, just the link, so JSO doesn't twist up their panties again.

[Brando19]

I love very specific, definite articles like this one. Eh. He may trade up if there's someone he likes (but he doesn't see much reason to with a deep draft, or he could draft in his original spot, but don't rule out trading down.

btw, Brando, you're not supposed to post the story, just the link, so JSO doesn't twist up their panties again.

Sorry about that Ziggy. Does that go for JSO only or everything else?

[MJZiggy]

May as well do it for all of them so no one gets upset.

[Bretsky]

I just wrote McGinn an email because I thought his comment that Thompson has never been one to take a win now approach was wrong.


Thompson wants to win now and over an extended period of time. Just because he's not going to go commit errors that he knows are errors in the name of desperation doesn't mean he doesn't want to win now.

In fact, he turned it around faster than anyone thought possible so obviously he his decisions are ones that help the team win now.

Of course you are assuming that his gamble that McGinn would argue he chooses not to take would turn into an error.

[RashanGary]

Of course you are assuming that his gamble that McGinn would argue he chooses not to take would turn into an error.

I don't assume anything in this case. I'm using what Thompson said (in the press conference that McGinn got his info from). McGinn is not using what Thompson said. He's taking what Thompson said and twisting it to mean what he thinks it means (in spite of Ted saying otherwise). That is a wrong opinion or at least and opinion of what Ted is trying to do that doesn't reflect what Thompson said he was trying to do.


Thompson said the reason he doesn't reach for need is becuase it ends up hurting the team both long and short term (go listen to the press conference. He says taking BPA helps the team most NOW, so he is taking a win NOW approach even if McGinn can't understand it). How McGinn twisted that to mean Ted doesn't want to win now or isn't interested in winning now is beyond me, but I'm leaving open the possiblity that McGinn just can't see how taking the best player helps now so he's just writing up to his abilty, which is disappointingly low IMO. Whatever the case, I didn't like it and expected more.

[RashanGary]

Another possible excuse for McGinn twisting what Thompson said (and you wouldn't know he did it unless you acctually go listen to the conference) is that he want to drum up interest, excitement and anxiety toward what the Packers are doing this off season from hsi reader base. Good drama makes for good ratings.

All I know is if I was Thompson I would not do another interview with McGinn. He's a patent liar or an idiot and in either case, I wouldn't want my words being filtered to the fan base through him if at all preventable.

[b bulldog]

Good drama = good ratings, agreed and I'm wondering who the first poster will be that loses it when every team is signing players in UFA and we just keep following TT's plan. I like what TT has done so far but I don't see this team winning it all unless we make some moves

[Bretsky]

Good drama = good ratings, agreed and I'm wondering who the first poster will be that loses it when every team is signing players in UFA and we just keep following TT's plan. I like what TT has done so far but I don't see this team winning it all unless we make some moves

Not me this year

Any free agent GB gets with TT this year will be a bonus

[Bretsky]

Of course you are assuming that his gamble that McGinn would argue he chooses not to take would turn into an error.

I don't assume anything in this case. I'm using what Thompson said (in the press conference that McGinn got his info from). McGinn is not using what Thompson said. He's taking what Thompson said and twisting it to mean what he thinks it means (in spite of Ted saying otherwise). That is a wrong opinion or at least and opinion of what Ted is trying to do that doesn't reflect what Thompson said he was trying to do.


Thompson said the reason he doesn't reach for need is becuase it ends up hurting the team both long and short term (go listen to the press conference. He says taking BPA helps the team most NOW, so he is taking a win NOW approach even if McGinn can't understand it). How McGinn twisted that to mean Ted doesn't want to win now or isn't interested in winning now is beyond me, but I'm leaving open the possiblity that McGinn just can't see how taking the best player helps now so he's just writing up to his abilty, which is disappointingly low IMO. Whatever the case, I didn't like it and expected more.

FAIR OR NOT McGinn is equating a win now mentality with trading up to get that special player than can make a greater impact sooner. I didn't wince at all when I read that. Here is the context.

The Packers own the 30th pick in a draft that is nine weeks off. If Brett Favre returns, it's reasonable to think Thompson might like to trade up in the first round for a player that could offer more to a team seeking a Super Bowl appearance before their aging quarterback loses his stinger.

However, Thompson has never displayed much enthusiasm for a win-now approach.

"We're always shooting for a title," Thompson said evenly.

As the former head of draft operations for the Seattle Seahawks, Thompson traded down five times in five drafts without trading up. In three drafts for the Packers, he has traded down nine times without trading up.

Nevertheless, Thompson was on the Packers' staff when his more aggressive mentor, GM Ron Wolf, traded up three times in the first round alone. Wolf moved from 46 to 29 for defensive back George Teague in 1993, from 20 to 16 for guard Aaron Taylor in '94 and from 29 to 19 for defensive end Vonnie Holliday in '98.

[GBRulz]

Perhaps TT's approach to the draft and trading up is different than Wolf's because TT had alot more holes to fill. Now that the team is on the winning track, he can focus on really upgrading certain positions. I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a little more agressive this year.

BTW, brando - yes you only have to post links to JSO stuff. It's a pain, I know! I'm an admitted guilty party of being too lazy to click on links and don't normally read linked articles! It certainly beats JSO breathing down Mad's neck though.

[RashanGary]

It's not about fair. It's about accuracy. Thompson never said or hinted to not wanting to win now. McGinn writes about Thompson not being enthusiastic about the win-now approach after Thompson just said he shoots for the title every year. How is that not enthusiastic about winning now.

You're probably right that McGinn equates trading up for trying to win now. I wouldn't doubt if he thought that. What is right and wrong obviously has some abiguity to it. Sometimes trading up works. Sometimes it doesn't. When to do it and when not to is something nobody I've seen has nailed down. Regardless, for McGinn to go writing with the assumption that trading up is wanting to win now is just irresponsible. All he showed was Wolf tradign up and let's face it, the ONE championship we had had a lot more to do with Brett Favre and Reggie white than it did Ross Verba or George Teague yet somehow that was enough evidence for McGinn to paint a picture that Thompson isn't trying to win now.

I do question someones ability to piece evidence together if Teague and Verba tradeups was enough to draw the conclusion that Wolf wanted to win now and Thompson doesn't.

[RashanGary]

If you want to find a piece of writing that acctually backs up their conclusions, that old piece by Thaler and Massey that Tank introduced to us is the place to go.

They showed in detail that teams who trade up typically lose and teams who trade down typically win. They showed that the trade chart is drastically out of whack in favor of the team trading down and on top of that chart being out of whack, Thompson's trades are typically more in favor of him than the out of whack chart that already favors him.

But that's not the point either. That is just a matter of tendency. Each situation varies. Maybe your 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks are worth 1900 points and you're trading up in the 1st to get a pick worth 1600 points but the player you're hoping to draft is far more valuable to you than the picks typical point value. Maybe you feel he's a superstud. In that case, the chart is not accurate obviously and rather than being skewed in favor of the person moving down, it's in favor of the person moving up (assuming the talent evaluator was correct *which often times is not the case either).


ONE OF THE TOP THEMES FROM THALER AND MASSEY's RESEARCH: The draft value chart tends to overvalue higher picks and undervalue lower picks

They went into many possible psychological reasons for why GM's fail so regularly. The resounding theme is false ego in their ability to evaluate talent, desperation, arrogance and fear of the unknown.

If the tendancy is NFL GM's overvalue higher picks, it's a reasonable conclusion to think a good GM would tend to trade down, taking advantage of that tendency.

Thompson has said multiple times, consistantly and clearly that he always looks to maximize value either trading up, trading down or staying put. Based on Thaler and Massey's reasearch and the words of Thompson, I think it's completely bogus to jump the the conclusion that he doesn't want to win now. The conclusion I draw is that Thompson is aware of the psychological tendency to be desperate and arrogant and rather than falling into the traps that skew the value chart and cause mistake, he works in the realm of reality based on experience (and he gives 1,000 examples of how desperation usually fails). The conclusion I draw is that Thompson always wants to do what's best, but he's working in an enviorment where what is best tends to be trading down; hence he trades down more than up; hence a big reason I laud him regularly for being oppertunisic. Keep in mind, without skill and wisdom it would be impossible to be oppertunistic and that same skill and wisdom or lack there of is what separates McGinn's foolish conclusion from Thompsons realilty based one.

I look forward to Thompson shoving the ego, arrogance and ignorance down the cowardly throats of the idiotic pussies with pens.