Williams could net Packers second-round pick

[Patler]

I'm not against keeping Williams this year by any stretch, but the most important thing Williams did that the other DT's did not was be on the field in passing situations.

The Packers did not use a three man rush very often, which means there was another DT on the field as well. The second DT, who ever it was, or all of them combined, should have shared in the sacks to a higher proportion than they did.

[Fritz]

The attitude about keeping Williams seems somewhat cavalier in some quarters, yet, when the Packers' vaunted depth took some hits due to injury later in the season, the reserves didn't step up big. I think the team ought to sign Williams long term, within what constitutes "reason" in the NFL these days.

[The Leaper]

Williams is like Beanie Babies. Trade him now while his value is overinflated or he'll just end up practically worthless and tucked away in a tuperware under the bed.

I tend to agree with this logic. He's never been dominant, although as a pass rusher he certainly has value.

In many ways, Williams is to DTs what KGB is to DEs. Many of the same people looking to run KGB out of town and/or chop his salary down to nothing are the same ones claiming we should do whatever it takes to sign Williams.

I don't get that logic whatsoever.

Williams is NOT an every down force at DT. He's got ability as a pass rusher, but he's certainly not dominant in that regard. In our system, Williams is basically a situational pass rusher at the DT position.

To sign Williams, we will have to throw at least a $10M bonus and $30M total contract value at him...because he would easily get that on the open market IMO, probably more. Who here honestly believes Williams will be a solid return on that kind of investment over the next 5 years?

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not against keeping Williams this year by any stretch, but the most important thing Williams did that the other DT's did not was be on the field in passing situations.

The Packers did not use a three man rush very often, which means there was another DT on the field as well. The second DT, who ever it was, or all of them combined, should have shared in the sacks to a higher proportion than they did.

Vince has a point. I'd like to see how many snaps each guy had on third pass defense. KGB and Kampman were obviously in there a lot on 3rd down pass defense. Williams was too. Jenkins usually slid inside. We know he had a down year--although he got more pressures than sacks. I'm thinking the rest of the DTs were barely on the field in these situations, so that comparison isn't a good one. You could say that Williams was more productive than Jenkins (although I'd like to see how many pressures both of them got), but I think that's about all you can say at this point.

[The Leaper]

I'm not against keeping Williams this year by any stretch, but the most important thing Williams did that the other DT's did not was be on the field in passing situations.

Huh? His entire role is to be on the field in passing situations, and the Packers purposely rotate their DTs because each guy has different skill sets. Williams has no ability to stop the run, so getting sacks is all he's got.

I would be more impressed if the important thing was that Williams developed into a true dominant DT who is capable of being on the field on first down. I doubt that will happen.

[The Leaper]

You could say that Williams was more productive than Jenkins (although I'd like to see how many pressures both of them got), but I think that's about all you can say at this point.

I agree. Pickett/Jolly/Harrell aren't going to be seeing action on 3rd and long anytime soon. The other DT on passing downs was usually Jenkins...and he clearly had a down year regardless of where he lined up.

[HarveyWallbangers]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=711575

Williams (played more in pass defense than base defense)

* Tackles per snap: one every 12.3
* Pressures per snap: one every 37

Jolly (played more in base defense than pass defense)

* Tackles per snap: McGinn didn't say, but said he was "a stout, instinctive, high-energy player against the run."
* Pressures per snap: one every 66.8.

Harrell

* Tackles per snap: one every 6.32.
* Pressure per snap: he didn't have any.

Pickett (played a lot more in base defense than pass defense)

* Tackles per snap: one every 7.9.
* Pressures per snap: McGinn didn't say, but said he was "Stationary pass rusher who almost never gets off the line of scrimmage."

Jenkins

* Tackles per snap: one every 15.5 (down from one every 8.4 last year)
* Pressures per snap: one every 30 (down from one every 15.5 last year)

Cole

* Tackles per snap: one every 10.
* Pressures per snap: McGinn didn't say, but said he was "Not much of a pass rusher."

*****

What does this tell us?

1) The run stuffers (Pickett, Harrell, Cole) stuffed the run and rarely get a pressure.
2) Williams gets a disproportionate amount of sacks for the number of pressures he gets.
3) Jenkins obviously appeared to be affected by the injuries he went through.

That's about all you can gather. Muir rarely played. Williams is obviously one of our two best pass rushing DTs (along with Jenkins when he moves inside and he's healthy), but that's not saying a whole lot. I like him. I just don't think he's great. He's great the way they used him early in the season. When he had to be a full-time player, he fell off.

[The Leaper]

2) Williams gets a disproportionate amount of sacks for the number of pressures he gets.

That is the key. Sure, he racked up 7 sacks...but if he isn't consistently pressuring the QB all the time, he isn't worth the kind of money we will have to pay him to lock him up long term.

If we can get a second round pick for him, I'd dance a jig.

[Patler]

Vince has a point. I'd like to see how many snaps each guy had on third pass defense. KGB and Kampman were obviously in there a lot on 3rd down pass defense. Williams was too. Jenkins usually slid inside. We know he had a down year--although he got more pressures than sacks. I'm thinking the rest of the DTs were barely on the field in these situations, so that comparison isn't a good one. You could say that Williams was more productive than Jenkins (although I'd like to see how many pressures both of them got), but I think that's about all you can say at this point.

Sure Williams was on the field for a lot of pass plays, but most of the time so was another tackle. And Williams was by no means on the field for all of the passing plays either.

I don't know how to find the data, but I would be willing to bet that all of the other tackles in total, played more snaps on passing downs than Williams did, just because most of the time another one was on the field with Williams, and when Williams was not on the field for a pass, two other DTs were. Again, Williams had 7 sacks and all the others combined had 2 (maybe 3 if Jenkins only sack came as a DT).

I'm not suggesting Williams is a great DT, my concern is that there is no one else who steps up and makes the sacks that Williams does.

As for comparing Williams and KGB, Williams is no where near the liability in the run game that KGB is. Not even close, in my opinion.

[The Leaper]

I'm not suggesting Williams is a great DT, my concern is that there is no one else who steps up and makes the sacks that Williams does.

IMO, a pressure is almost as good as a sack from the DT position...getting that pressure right into the QB's face is very disruptive. To get a real appreciation for what is happening, I think you need to add together the pressures and sacks.

Considering Williams' weak pressures per snap in 2007, it is likely that other DTs were as just as effective as he was in creating pressures...they just didn't tally up sacks.

In other words...if Williams had 40 pressures and 7 sacks and Jenkins had 40 pressures and 0 sacks, would Williams really be a huge upgrade over the guy next to him over 7 plays in the course of a season?

Williams is helped a lot by having 2 very good pass rushing DEs on the edges in Kampman and KGB. Stick him on a ho-hum DL, and he disappears IMO. He's not worth a huge long term deal. People get caught up in how well his sack numbers compare to other DTs...when he probably is very average in terms of all DTs in terms of how regularly he actual puts real pressure on the QB, even if he does get a higher percentage of sacks.

[Patler]

I'm not suggesting Williams is a great DT, my concern is that there is no one else who steps up and makes the sacks that Williams does.

IMO, a pressure is almost as good as a sack from the DT position...getting that pressure right into the QB's face is very disruptive. To get a real appreciation for what is happening, I think you need to add together the pressures and sacks.

Considering Williams' weak pressures per snap in 2007, it is likely that other DTs were as just as effective as he was in creating pressures...they just didn't tally up sacks.

In other words...if Williams had 40 pressures and 7 sacks and Jenkins had 40 pressures and 0 sacks, would Williams really be a huge upgrade over the guy next to him over 7 plays in the course of a season?

Williams is helped a lot by having 2 very good pass rushing DEs on the edges in Kampman and KGB. Stick him on a ho-hum DL, and he disappears IMO. He's not worth a huge long term deal. People get caught up in how well his sack numbers compare to other DTs...when he probably is very average in terms of all DTs in terms of how regularly he actual puts real pressure on the QB, even if he does get a higher percentage of sacks.

I don't dispute any of that; however, why were not any of the other tackles, or all of them collectively, helped in the same way Williams was?

Clearly all the DTs have different strengths and weaknesses, but it seems that only Williams gives them sacks. In that way he has something to offer that the others do not.

Jenkins has not convinced me yet at all. He was a DT for two and a half years and was just another one of the rotation. He was a virtual non factor this year, even if an improvement over KGB as an every down DE. I think too many fans are overly excited over the 4 games he played at DE at the end of 2006. I'm not convinced that he is or will be anything more than just OK. Even at DT he would have streaks of a game or two that you would notice him, then he would sort of disappear again. I wonder if all we saw was a longer flash in 2006. I hope not.

[The Leaper]

I don't dispute any of that; however, why were not any of the other tackles, or all of them collectively, helped in the same way Williams was?

Jenkins was helped in 2006...he had one pressure every 15.5 snaps, more than double the production Williams had in that category in 2007. That is a rather signficant statistic IMO.

I think injuries and other factors played a role in Jenkins just not having the same year in 2007. There certainly is the possibility Jenkins could return to his 2006 form in 2008. But he's certainly not a sure thing either.

Clearly all the DTs have different strengths and weaknesses, but it seems that only Williams gives them sacks. In that way he has something to offer that the others do not.

I'm not disputing that point. Williams has value...just not equivalent to what his worth is on the open market IMO. I also agree that Jenkins isn't a consistent force either. Our DL is actually a sum-of-its-parts...we don't really have one dominant player, but as a group the collection has what it needs to be very effective when healthy.

IMO it wouldn't be that hard to replace Williams with someone comparable for far less money than 99 will get a long term contract for. He's a good player, but not worth $6M a year. Thompson shouldn't give Williams up for nothing...but if a good enough deal comes along, I'd jump at it.

To me, being a football GM is no different than playing the stock market. Buy low, sell high. If you do that enough, over time your team will be a winner. I just can't see Williams ever reaching a point where he is worth much more than a 2nd round pick...so he's at his high. Unless you can lock him in for a good price, I think you should strongly consider selling and using the proceeds on a different investment...hoping to reap additional rewards.

[Patler]

Most of Jenkins stats in 2006 came in the last 4 game stretch he played replacing KGB at DE, not as a DT. I suspect the same was true this year, although it is just an impression I had while watching this year. I just don't recall him being that effective as a DT this year, or for that matter when he was a full time tackle and not a DE.

I have said all along that Williams is not a player worthy of top 5 money on a long contract, but he might be this year, and maybe even next unless one of the other DTs show something they haven't yet. I think too many fans dismiss what he provides, thinking another of the DTs will do it. So far, none of them have as a tackle, even though as a group they have had the opportunities/advantages/situations that Williams has had. I'm not sure there is a player comparable to Williams on the roster right now, but that doesn't mean I think he has to be kept long term.

"Pressures" are a subjective thing, because it includes the undefined category of "hurries". If you look at the factual components, sacks and knockdowns, Williams had 16, the clear leader among DTs. Jenkins had 10.5, but I have no idea how many came as a DT and how many as a DE. After Kampman, KGB, Williams and Jenkins, the others simply didn't do anything, and Williams is the only one of the 4 that we know generated his performance as a DT. With Jenkins we just don't know how much came as a DT in 2007. When he was a starter at DT in 2005 he didn't leave much of an impression on me as either a pass rusher or as a run stuffer. He was just sort of there, made plays now and then, but that's about it.

Again, I'm not suggesting Williams is a great DT or anything like that. My point is just that right now the roster doesn't have anyone who has demonstrated that they can replace him as a pass rusher. Hopefully, someone in 2008 will demonstrate that he can. Since the Packers can keep Williams in the mean time, they might as well, because without him they might have even more problems in generating a pass rush.

DTs simply do not do a lot as pass rushers in NFL defenses as played now. I was quite surprised to see that Williams with 14 sacks the last two seasons is the NFL leader among all DTs. His 7 each season put him in third each season among DTs. Maybe that just demonstrates that they can let him go an not worry about it, because no one has DTs that do much as pass rushers. It just seems to me that when you have one that does, he is worth keeping as long as you can afford it.

Pass rushing DEs seem easier to find.

[Guiness]

Jenkins has not convinced me yet at all. He was a DT for two and a half years and was just another one of the rotation. He was a virtual non factor this year, even if an improvement over KGB as an every down DE. I think too many fans are overly excited over the 4 games he played at DE at the end of 2006. I'm not convinced that he is or will be anything more than just OK. Even at DT he would have streaks of a game or two that you would notice him, then he would sort of disappear again. I wonder if all we saw was a longer flash in 2006. I hope not.

Yes, what he did at the end of '06 was big...but I think what convinced me as much was the way he continued it during the '07 preseason. I know, it was only the preseason...but he was really tearing things up.

So question is, why did he roll off the table?