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Prediction: 4th Round Compensatory Pick

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  • Prediction: 4th Round Compensatory Pick



    Prediction: Pack gets 4th round pick

    The Green Bay Packers appear to be getting a fourth round draft choice as a compensatory selection for free agents lost prior to the 2007 season.

    There's an expert out there in cyberspace that goes by the username of AdamJT13 who can predict the compensatory draft choices given out by the NFL with suprising accuracy.

    This may sound like the biggest rumor in the world, folks, but you'd be amazed with accuracy in which this guy makes his projections.

    In AdamJT13's own words, "For the seventh consecutive year and eighth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past six projections, I’ve averaged 23.7 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.2 more."

    I've been following his predictions for a couple years now, and I can confirm that this is legit. Nothing is carved in stone, but it's highly accurate.

    The NFL award compensatory picks to teams that lose more free agents than they sign. Before the 2007 season, the Packers lost running back Ahman Green and tight end David Martin while they only signed cornerback Frank Walker.

    Seeing as they lost considerably more than they gained, the Packers are projected to receive a fourth round draft choice this April as compensation. And if you're skeptical, rarely is AdamJT13 off by more than one round, so the Packers might be looking at an extra fifth round choice as worse scenario.

    This also maybe goes to show why Packers general manager Ted Thompson isn't as active in free agency as many fans would like him to be. As a result, the Packers have had several compensatory selections in the past couple years and maybe even more in years to come. Although seeing as the Packers are losing very few if any free agents this season, they may not have any compensatory picks next year.

    So enjoy it, Packer fans. That now makes for six draft choices in the first four rounds if this prediction stands. Official confirmation is usually given by the NFL after spring meetings in late March.

  • #2
    I predict a fifth; so we'll see which cyberspace idiot is correct
    TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

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    • #3
      Those picks are also awarded based on players' performances. Green was hurt and didn't do squat, nor did Martin do much.

      I see a sixth or seventh round compensatory pick.
      "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

      KYPack

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Bretsky
        I predict a fifth; so we'll see which cyberspace idiot is correct
        I'm with you.

        My experience has been, we never get as high a pick as you think you'll get.

        We hae gotten a ton of 7th's, so I'll take a fifth.

        Hell, I'll always take a fifth!

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        • #5
          Green and Martin in 07'? We'll get an 8th round pick.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Fritz
            Those picks are also awarded based on players' performances. Green was hurt and didn't do squat, nor did Martin do much.

            I see a sixth or seventh round compensatory pick.
            Player performance seems to be a lesser part of it than salary. Then again, Ahman got $6.5M/year, but that wasn't as exorbitant as past years.

            "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

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            • #7
              Originally posted by twoseven
              Green and Martin in 07'? We'll get an 8th round pick.

              As silly as this sounds, I think the contract amounts also play into it.
              TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

              Comment


              • #8
                I think it is the signing bonuses, not the contracts as a whole.
                Pass Jessica's Law and keep the predators behind bars for 25 years minimum. Vote out liberal, SP judges. Enforce all immigrant laws!

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                • #9
                  Every year I look this up and then forget it 'cause it's too complicated...

                  "Compensatory Picks
                  In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of up to 32 picks dispersed at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

                  If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft.

                  Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft."

                  Guess the NFL doesn't really know, either.

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                  • #10
                    I would be overjoyed with a fourth. When is the annual meeting this year?
                    </delurk>

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                    • #11
                      March 30-April 3 - NFL Annual Meeting - Palm Beach, Florida


                      Let's party.

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                      • #12
                        I KNEW there was a reason TT didn't sign any free agents last year!
                        "Greatness is not an act... but a habit.Greatness is not an act... but a habit." -Greg Jennings

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bretsky
                          I predict a fifth; so we'll see which cyberspace idiot is correct

                          Uh, aren't we all cyberspace idiots?

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                          • #14
                            Speak for yourself buddy
                            Pass Jessica's Law and keep the predators behind bars for 25 years minimum. Vote out liberal, SP judges. Enforce all immigrant laws!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by MJZiggy
                              I KNEW there was a reason TT didn't sign any free agents last year!
                              dammit you took my comment!!

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