Players >80% likely to be here in 2008

[RashanGary]

I am not a good written or oral communicator. It's a really annoying thing to suck at.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Yeah, I communicated what I meant pretty badly. I see the error of my ways. I deserve the flack. I'll edit the original and admit error to Lurker.

I don't see how it was communicated badly. It's a pretty basic idea, list the players you think for sure will be on the team. Whats the problem in that.

[Joemailman]

Crosby
Rodgers
Bigby
Woodson
Grant
Harris
jackson
Collins
Rouse
Hawk
Poppinga
Chillar
Barnett
Wells
Tauscher
Spitz
Colledge
Kampman
Clifton
Jenkins
Barbre
Pickett
Driver
Jennings
Lee
Jones
Harrell
KGB
Jolly

Some young players, even though they're not really established, are virtual locks because they are seen as guys who haven't had a chance to show their potential yet. So, for instance, Justin Harrell is a lock, but Colin Cole is not.

[Lurker64]

I'm wondering why you put "lock" in the title of the thread, but you don't actually talk about locks in the original post and you chide me for assuming you're talking about locks. I assumed that your contribution would be the players that you think would be locks, but apparently the title of the thread has nothing to do with the topic you wanted to discuss.

If we're just talking about "players who will probably make the team" I'll say the list is:
Mason Crosby, Jon Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Atari Bigby, Charles Woodson, Ryan Grant, Will Blackmon, John Kuhn, Al Harris, Brandon Jackson, Korey Hall, Nick Collins, Aaron Rouse, A.J. Hawk, Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Tracy White, Junius Coston, Scott Wells, Mark Tauscher, Jason Spitz, Daryn Colledge, Aaron Kampman, Tony Moll, Chad Clifton, Cullen Jenkins, Allen Barbre, Ryan Pickett, Donald Driver, Koren Robinson, Ruvell Martin, Greg Jenning, Donald Lee, James Jones, Colin Cole, Justin Harrell, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Daniel Muir, Johnny Jolly.

But then again "probably" isn't a very strong statement, if I feel that there's a greater than 51% chance of a guy making the roster, I think he'll probably make it. Some of those guys are 95%+ to make the roster (e.g. Rodgers, Hawk), and some of those guys are closer to 55% likely to make the roster (e.g. Muir, Koren Robinson).

Now that the title has been re-edited, I think the 80% list is:
Mason Crosby, Aaron Rodgers, Atari Bigby, Charles Woodson, Ryan Grant, Will Blackmon, Al Harris, Brandon Jackson, Korey Hall, Nick Collins, Aaron Rouse, A.J. Hawk, Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Tracy White, Mark Tauscher, Jason Spitz, Aaron Kampman, Tony Moll, Chad Clifton, Cullen Jenkins, Allen Barbre, Ryan Pickett, Donald Driver, Ruvell Martin, Greg Jennings, Donald Lee, James Jones, Justin Harrell, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and Johnny Jolly.

[Gunakor]

The whole point was that no matter what happens in the draft, I think the guys I listed in the upper group are locks.

I disagree. If we get Stewart in the first round and Ray Rice in the third, Jackson is out of a job. If we get two high quality CBs in the first three rounds, at least one of which has return experience, Tramon Williams is going to have to compete for this job in training camp. If Jolly's shoulder doesn't heal well and we pick up a value like Pat Sims in the third, Jolly might sit out the year in IR or have a tough training camp battle ahead of him (particularly if one of the DTs we have that we didn't see much of last year like Muir or Bolston has a hell of an offseason).

The fact is, it's impossible to (barring the guys who are borderline probowlers) to predict who is a lock to make the team at this point in the season.

If we're talking about guys who can't possibly lose their jobs barring injury I would say that list consists of:
Rodgers
Jennings
Clifton
Tauscher
Driver
Hawk
Barnett
Woodson
Harris
Kampman
And that's it.

Add Pickett, Jones, Grant, and Wells.

I'd put Donald Lee on that list as well.

[Guiness]

I'm surprised to see so many LB's on the list.

Barnett and Hawk, of course. But will Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar and Tracy White all make it? I know it's a good group, but are we really not looking for any improvement with that crew?

[Lurker64]

Lurker, why did you leave Grant off your list?

If I'm talking about absolute locks (which the short list was), I had to leave Grant off as I could easily see a combination of 1) Difficulty in signing Grant to a deal both he and the Packers are happy with and 2) The potential of drafting a top flight RB who drafts means that I can imagine a plausible scenario in which Grant does not play for the Packers much (if at all) next year. Very small chance of that happening, but it still keeps me from saying he's a lock. He's not, after all, currently under contract. Hard to call a guy like that a lock.

Barnett and Hawk, of course. But will Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar and Tracy White all make it?

I don't really know about Chillar, I'm guessing that since they thought highly enough of him to sign him he'll make the team. Poppinga probably makes the team because his fill-ins against the run are top-notch and he has improved steadily the last couple of years. Chillar makes the team to back up Poppinga, if nothing else, since we have very little in the way of depth at LB. Tracy White makes the team not so much to play linebacker (though he can fill in at 3 positions if he needs to), but because he's likely the single best player on our special teams coverage units. He did, after all, force both of the fumbles that our ST recovered for TDs last season. Guys who aren't starters usually make the team based on one of two things: 1) Special Teams play or 2) Longterm potential. I'd say there's a 95%+ chance that Tracy White makes the team, just because he's our special teams ace.

I also suspect there's a spot there for either Desmond Bishop or Abdul Hodge, I expect one of (but not both) of those guys to make the team, that'll be an interesting camp battle if we assume that the reports of Hodge's progress are true. It may well come down to ST play. I could see a draft pick here, but I kind of doubt it. If there's a tremendous value there for SLB, I could see picking up a guy who could potentially create a logjam there with Chillar and Poppinga. But 2/3 of our starters are chiseled into stone for years to come, and we'd primarily be drafting a guy to be a backup. I don't see us drafting another backup MLB since we already have both Hodge and Bishop who are basically the same player and are exclusively MLBs. If we find a guy who can back up Hawk, I could see him making the roster, but it'll be a numbers crunch.

Like I said, this is hard to do before the draft.

[The Leaper]

Here is my .02

Guys who are a virtual lock (95%) to make the final 53 man roster:

Rodgers
Grant
Lee
Driver
Jennings
Jones
Clifton
Tauscher
Wells
Pickett
Harrell
Jenkins
Kampman
Barnett
Hawk
Chillar
Harris
Woodson
Bigby
Crosby

Guys who are a prohibitive favorite (75%) to make the final 53 man roster regardless of draft picks:

Jackson
Kuhn
Colledge
Spitz
Moll
Jolly
Cole
Poppinga
Bush
Rouse
Ryan

That takes 31 spots off the board. In addition to those 31, here are some others who I expect have a very strong opportunity to claim a roster spot, but who could be impacted by a serious injury:

Hall
Martin
Coston
Barbre
KGB
White
Collins

So, I expect these 38 players to make the team at this point almost regardless. That leaves 15 slots where I expect stiff competition in camp to make the roster:

#2 QB
#3 QB
#3 RB
#2 TE
#3 TE
#5 WR
#4 OT
#4 OG
#5 DT
#4 DE
#6 LB
#4 CB
#5 CB
#4 S
#5 S

That's my guess. Do we keep a long snapper in favor of one of the slots I've mentioned? I dunno...probably. Then the #5 DT or #6 LB probably is a casualty.

[The Leaper]

Barnett and Hawk, of course. But will Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar and Tracy White all make it? I know it's a good group, but are we really not looking for any improvement with that crew?

Chillar is a pretty big improvement in that 4th slot. Make that a HUGE improvement.

Chillar is a capable starter...and that gives us 4 in that regard. How many other teams have 4 capable starters at LB...including 2 that have potential for Pro Bowl caliber seasons?

I guess I don't understand how signing a starter to your LB corp when you already have 3 guys who did pretty well in 2007 is standing pat. Barnett and Hawk are givens...they are both very good and very durable. Chillar's addition brings a high degree of competition to that 3rd spot...and adds a capable reserve regardless of who gets the starting role.

[Patler]

Player who, in my opinion, are certain to be here next season, unless injured:

Offense
QB - Rodgers
RB - Grant, Jackson, Hall, Kuhn
WR - Driver, Jennings, Jones,
OL - Clifton, Tauscher, Wells, Spitz, Barbre, Colledge, Coston
TE - Lee
Kicker - Crosby
LS - Gafford

Notes about the offense: One of Martin and Robinson will be back at WR if they keep only 5. The 5th spot will go to a rookie. I do not think any of the other O-linemen are certain to be back, including Moll. Obviosuly some will be, but I think which ones will be decided in camp. I also look for at least one, and maybe two new faces on the O-line from the ones who were on the roster last season. I also think it is likely that Ryan will be the punter, but not a certainty.

Defense
DL - Kampman, Jenkins, Harrell, Jolly, Pickett,
LB - Poppinga, Barnett, Hawk, Chillar
DB - Harris, Woodson, Blackmon, Collins, Bigby, Rouse

Notes about the defense: I think they will be open to finding a new "KGB" type player, and if they do, KJB will be gone. I put both KGB and Cole in the "likely" category, but I think the Packers would like to replace both, if they can. I also think Muir is likely to get a 2nd season. I expect a new face or two on DL, too, most likely at DE. The 5th and 6th LBs will be decided strictly on special teams play, and are spots for rookies to catch on. I think the three corners and three safeties listed are the only certain ones. I expect a high draft pick at DB.

[KYPack]

Player who, in my opinion, are certain to be here next season, unless injured:

Offense
QB - Rodgers
RB - Grant, Jackson, Hall, Kuhn
WR - Driver, Jennings, Jones,
OL - Clifton, Tauscher, Wells, Spitz, Barbre, Colledge, Coston
TE - Lee
Kicker - Crosby
LS - Gafford

Notes about the offense: One of Martin and Robinson will be back at WR if they keep only 5. The 5th spot will go to a rookie. I do not think any of the other O-linemen are certain to be back, including Moll. Obviosuly some will be, but I think which ones will be decided in camp. I also look for at least one, and maybe two new faces on the O-line from the ones who were on the roster last season. I also think it is likely that Ryan will be the punter, but not a certainty.

Defense
DL - Kampman, Jenkins, Harrell, Jolly, Pickett,
LB - Poppinga, Barnett, Hawk, Chillar
DB - Harris, Woodson, Blackmon, Collins, Bigby, Rouse

Notes about the defense: I think they will be open to finding a new "KGB" type player, and if they do, KJB will be gone. I put both KGB and Cole in the "likely" category, but I think the Packers would like to replace both, if they can. I also think Muir is likely to get a 2nd season. I expect a new face or two on DL, too, most likely at DE. The 5th and 6th LBs will be decided strictly on special teams play, and are spots for rookies to catch on. I think the three corners and three safeties listed are the only certain ones. I expect a high draft pick at DB.

We kept a bunch of DL's last season, there might be a lot of new faces if your list is followed. & that may happen. I thought KGB was gone last season, but his play surprised me. His big contract may finally get him, but we don't need the money or the room.

OL, I expect one or two OG's to be drafted. If Coston shows up fat and gets lost in games again, I think they will turn their back on him and give his roster spot to a kid with upside. Juice is what he is at this point. I think Moll makes the team, based on his versatility.

DB is another spot that should see a first day pick. These guys like to turn over the roster. You could see some surprising DB cuts in pre-season.

[The Leaper]

Notes about the defense: I think they will be open to finding a new "KGB" type player, and if they do, KJB will be gone.

I completely disagree with you Patler. I think KGB is likely to stay regardless.

Few rookie DEs make an immediate impact...even high draft picks. I would expect that the Packers would love to draft the replacement for KGB this year...but with the notion that replacement happens in 2009, not 2008. Our pass rush wore down as the year went on. If anything, we need MORE pass rushers to give Kampman some rest to keep him strong for the stretch run.

Montgomery or Hunter is more likely to be a casualty this year than KGB. Any rookie DE would only stand to learn from KGB and his approach to the game. KGB is a credit to this team...he handled his demotion from a starting role with class. Cutting him this year would be a huge mistake IMO when he clearly still has the capacity to be a key player in a situational role.

[KYPack]

Notes about the defense: I think they will be open to finding a new "KGB" type player, and if they do, KJB will be gone.

I completely disagree with you Patler. I think KGB is likely to stay regardless.

Few rookie DEs make an immediate impact...even high draft picks. I would expect that the Packers would love to draft the replacement for KGB this year...but with the notion that replacement happens in 2009, not 2008. Our pass rush wore down as the year went on. If anything, we need MORE pass rushers to give Kampman some rest to keep him strong for the stretch run.

Montgomery or Hunter is more likely to be a casualty this year than KGB. Any rookie DE would only stand to learn from KGB and his approach to the game. KGB is a credit to this team...he handled his demotion from a starting role with class. Cutting him this year would be a huge mistake IMO when he clearly still has the capacity to be a key player in a situational role.

That one will be interesting, Leap.

The KGB at the start of last season & the guy who played in mid-season would be a no-brainer. The guy that finished up the year will have to fight for a job. Kabeer wore down. He had a decent game against Seasttle, but man, he disappeared against the Giants.

If he can still play at the high level, fine, but he might be running low on fuel.

It will be interesting to see which guy shows up.

[Patler]

Notes about the defense: I think they will be open to finding a new "KGB" type player, and if they do, KJB will be gone.

I completely disagree with you Patler. I think KGB is likely to stay regardless.

...

Montgomery or Hunter is more likely to be a casualty this year than KGB. Any rookie DE would only stand to learn from KGB and his approach to the game. KGB is a credit to this team...he handled his demotion from a starting role with class. Cutting him this year would be a huge mistake IMO when he clearly still has the capacity to be a key player in a situational role.

I think Montgomery is a very likely roster casualty. He has had his opportunity, and has done little with it.

If some combination of Hunter (who the Packers seem to think has pass-rush potential), Chillar and Poppinga can give them decent pressure, I could see KGB being let go and replaced by a rookie for the future. Hunter is also one of their best ST performers, so has a leg up on some others.

I by no means think KGB is certain to be gone, I'm just not certain that he won't be.

[texaspackerbacker]

While the actual list of players kept is interesting, the breakdown by position of roster spots is more significant, especially now, when we don't have a clue about at least 8 or 10 in the overall pool of players (draftees and street free agents).

How many extra O Linemen do you keep? 2 TEs or 3? 5 wideouts, or a 6th if somebody looks good? 2 fullbacks, which seems highly probable, but which practically nobody else does? 3 RBs or 4--or maybe only 2? Long Snap Specialist or not? Extra D Linemen or Linebackers because they are good on special teams? Same question regarding DBs?

As for throwing out names, I have a couple of sleepers to make the roster and contribute already in house that have gotten little or no mention. One of those is Corey White who I see as better than any RB we have other than Grant and maybe Jackson. Another is Desmond Bishop, who ought to be (IMO) valued higher than White or Hodge, and who I wish they would give a try at OLB; A third is Mike Montgomery, who I have always seen as underrated and more than just a KGB-type DE.