What was Thompson thinking?

[woodbuck27]

Brave thread JH.

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

NO! I'll say this again though. This is TT's season to taske stock. DD is getting up there in age but his marvelous conditioning trumps that.

How many QB's do we need with zero to little NFL experience? I'll buy the Brian Brohm pick as a player that was much higher on TT's board; therefore excellent value, but to pick another QB and WR late on Sunday?

I'm not getting it. I'll welcome any explanation of the merit in 2XQB and 2X WR.

Packers Forever!!

[HarveyWallbangers]

I feel overall that this was a strange and unfocused draft for us and that TT reached a couple of times and drafted where we didn'y have need. 2X WR and QB?

How did you feel about his reaches for Greg Jennings and James Jones?

[Patler]

Very simple. If you truly subscribe to the "best player available" philosophy, it does not matter what position they play. Even apart from that, I think it can be explained:

The Packers had 1 QB. That's it. Drafting two establishes competition of sort for the back-up and gives three to work with for down the road. Three is not too many QBs. Most complained when they carried only two.

TT is still looking for the "burner" at WR. Something they don't have.

Both were 7th round picks. I get the feeling TT felt there wasn't a lot left, anyway. Why not take a chance with some guys that might have developmental potential (Flynn) or provide a missing dimension (Swain).

If you can draft a QB late, work with him a couple years and trade him for a higher pick, you have created value. Flynn could be that type of pick.

[Lurker64]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

[3irty1]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

I think Wynn will make the team. Until Ryan Grant was sent from heaven, Wynn was our most productive back.

[Bossman641]

Both were 7th round picks.

Exactly. It really shouldn't matter what position you pick because 7th round picks don't usually make the team for the teams that drafted them.

Last year we took a TE (Clark Harris) in the 7th round and everybody was relieved that TT took a TE because they were concerned with the fact that we didn't have one. Harris didn't make the team and nobody was broken up over it. Last year's other 7th, Deshawn Wynn wouldn't have made the team were it not for the mess we had at the RB position. He is a longshot to make the team this year. Our 7th round pick the previous year, Dave Tollefson, is no longer with the team. Our two 7th round picks the previous year, Kurt Campbell and Will Whittacker are likewise no longer with the team. In 2004 we actually hit on a guy in the 7th round, getting Scott Wells, but other than Wells and Williams that draft was absolutely horrible. Going back further, in 2003 we had four seventh round picks: Chris Johnson, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford, and Steve Josue; none are currently with the Packers. The last time we had picks in the seventh was 2000 when we took Tauscher (another success), and also Ron Moore, Charles Lee, Eugene McCaslin, and Rondell Measley. The last five for that group made little to no contribution to the Packers.

So from 2000-2007 we have had 14 seventh round draft picks. Two of them of them have turned out to be good players (Tauscher and Wells), one other is currently on the team but may not be for much longer (Wynn). Other them, 11/14 contributed essentially nothing of value to this team.

So spending a 7th round pick on a position you're deep in, isn't any great loss since most 7th round picks end up on the practice squad or get cut anyway.

Personally, I would rather see TT take a flyer on a QB and a WR that he thinks could develop in time into a good NFL player after spending a few years on the practice squad, even though we're deep at those positions, than a DB or RB who will probably never develop into anything but we take because we lack bodies at those positions.

Amen

I'm not gonna sit here and complain about any 7th round picks. 7th round picks barely make any contribution. Like Lurker said, if TT thinks they can make something of these guys, then take them and stash them on the PS. It's better then drafting a position of need and then cutting him a couple months later.

[KYPack]

Hodge was the next coming of Brian Urlacher. He took over for Barnett and pushed Barnett to the outside. Oh wait, that was the speculation then that never came true.

Although I agree with some of what JH said, it is just that, pure speculation along with hints of personal bias.

I agree, let the pads get put on before we go crowning anyone or changing your nickname to one.

A lot of people went nuts over Hodge. He was projected as a 1 & people when gaga when we picked him up as a 3. He's a pretty good kid, can fill like crazy. But cover? he can't do it. They kept him for potential and ST. Now. his knees are shot. I don't look for him to get out of camp.

I went nuts on JSO when that draft was over. I went postal bc some dumb shits were saying now that we had Hodge (Like that was a big thing) we should switch to a 3-4! They just have no grasp of what it takes to install a totally different defensive system.

So, I let 'em have it.

Hodge has really fallen off the radar scope. I never hear a thing about his rehab. So it probably, it ain't good.

[run pMc]

Agree it's a brave post, and one that is somewhat biased.

I think Thompson fell in love with Nelson similarly to the way he fell in love with Harrell last year. He didn't want to take an equally rated player at a positoin of need so he dropped back knowing the other guys would get scooped up and he could take the guy he wanted all along. Result, Jordy Nelson is a Packer.

I don't understand this. If two players were rated equally, and one was for a position of need, why wouldn't you pick them? Either Nelson was clearly the BPA at #36 in TT's mind, or he felt WR is a bigger position of need than most fans do. Does anyone think if TT had Brohm rated as the better player, he'd have taken him at #36 instead of Nelson?

As for Harrell, he didn't trade down. Harrell was a BPA pick at a position most fans thought was well stocked. I think TT said he thought Harrell would have been a top 10 pick if he'd been healthy. Meanwhile, many were saying TT should pick Meachem or Bowe.

Maybe I'm missing the point?

[RashanGary]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.


In Nelsons case he traded down for an excuse to take him. He has a board that goes on quality first and need 2nd. At 30 he had guys that he "needed" more but were rated equally to Nelson so he couldn't take Nelson because it's against his holy book of Draft rules. Instead of breaking one of the unbreakable, he dropped back, letting teh other guys get scooped up and giving him an excuse to take Nelson. In short, he fell in love and did what he had to do to justify picking him. Harrells situation was different in that he declined trades but the same in that he did what he had to do to get him even if it meant passing up good offers.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

It may be that he didn't think the offer to him was good enough value or too risky. He turned out to be correct on the trade. He may or may not have picked the wrong guy. Remember that the folks that took the time to actually analyze the offer from Cleveland said that the Packers would have lost on that trade according to the value chart.

I have no doubt that Thompson would trade any player if he felt the value was right.

[Lurker64]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

I don't think you're any more capable of reading Ted Thompson's mind than anybody else is.

I'm personally of the mind of "Thompson was sitting there at 30 and there were no players left with first round grades, the Jets called and he figured that if he moved back a few spots he could have his pick of a bunch of guys he had second round grades on." I have found absolutely no reason to believe that Thompson was more in love with Nelson than with Brandon Flowers, for example. He just picked Jordy and not Flowers because Flowers was gone by the time he picked. McGinn had it right, the probability of a guy who had a legitimate first round grade being there at 30 was very slim, so he expected Thompson to trade. Most scouts did not have a first round grade on Keller, Phillips, or Flowers for example. You could make a case for Merling having a first round grade and being good value at that position, but there can be a strong case made for staying away from Clemson DEs with injury problems based on history. I most strongly believe that Thompson traded down since there simply wasn't first round value that he cared for available and he didn't want to reach for a second round player he liked when he could get an extra draft pick out of it instead.

But I don't get to see TT's draft board, and neither do you, so I would suggest you avoid making definitive statements that imply you are some kind of mindreader, unless of course you are in which case you should get a job with the Packers to predict what play the opponent will run or what other teams will do in the draft. We could use a guy who can read minds in the front office.

[Bretsky]

The point was he fell in love with both players. In Harrells case he would not trade down. He wanted one guy and one guy only at that point.

It may be that he didn't think the offer to him was good enough value or too risky. He turned out to be correct on the trade. He may or may not have picked the wrong guy. Remember that the folks that took the time to actually analyze the offer from Cleveland said that the Packers would have lost on that trade according to the value chart.

I have no doubt that Thompson would trade any player if he felt the value was right.

I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ? I don't know if I agree or disagree with that to be honest. The value charts are outdated. If you look at the value charts from this year TT lost on almost every deal he made

Harrell, to me showes a bit of potential, but not enough for me to argue anything for him. Would I rather have had Harrell, or Mendenhall or Jenkins..or others there at 22 that were available ? Debateable IMO

TT chose to stand firm last year and that was his perogative. Time will tell.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ?

He turned out to be right because if he had made the trade, he would have traded the 16th pick in a draft for the 22nd pick in the following draft. Even though it looked like Cleveland would have a bad pick, he decided it wasn't worth the risk. The way teams rise and fall in the NFL he turned out to be 100% correct on his decision not to make that trade. Anyway anybody wants to spin it otherwise is hogwash.

His choice of the player he drafted cannot not be analyzed at this time. Let's see what Harrell turns into before we write him off.

I'll take Grant over Mendenhall right now.

[Bretsky]

I'm not sure I'd say TT turned out to be right on the trade ?

He turned out to be right because if he had made the trade, he would have traded the 16th pick in a draft for the 22nd pick in the following draft. Even though it looked like Cleveland would have a bad pick, he decided it wasn't worth the risk. The way teams rise and fall in the NFL he turned out to be 100% correct on his decision not to make that trade. Anyway anybody wants to spin it otherwise is hogwash.

His choice of the player he drafted cannot not be analyzed at this time. Let's see what Harrell turns into before we write him off.

I'll take Grant over Mendenhall right now.

Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

[Lurker64]

Didn't we also get a high 2nd as part of that deal ?

No, the deal that Cleveland offered Thompson (and other teams) was "2008 first round picks and swap 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks in 2007." That was a lowball offer and would have been a mistake for any of those teams (including ours to make).

The deal that Cleveland ended up giving Dallas was 2007 Round 2 and 2008 Round 1. They had to sweeten the deal for Dallas as Kansas City was picking at 23, one behind Dallas, and the Chiefs had made it public that if Quinn were available they would take him. So the Browns either had to make an offer that was sweet enough for the Cowboys to take, or not get Quinn. They were under no similar compunction not to lowball Green Bay, since if Green Bay didn't take their offer they still had the opportunity to work out a deal with Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, the Giants, or the Cowboys. So Cleveland ended up lowballing all the teams before Dallas, hoping they'd bite on the promise of a "very high pick in 2008", to get a deal which was in their favor. None of those teams (not just ours) took the bait. In retrospect, those teams were correct to do so. Dallas made out only about even since they traded the 22nd pick in 2007 for the 22nd pick in 2008 and the #36 pick in 2007 (which they traded).

It is dangerous to become enamored with "that team will do very poorly next season so that will be a very good draft pick" since the team trading you the pick is going to do their darnedest to devalue that pick during the season.

In his 2007 post draft press conference Thompson specifically said that he didn't want to take the Cleveland deal since it would have resulted in a net loss in number of picks in 2007. So we weren't offered a second round pick. In theory you could imagine how Thompson might have been able to talk them into throwing in a second, but that would be difficult to do considering that there were six other teams they could negotiate with who might take a better deal (for the Browns.)