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2005 First Round BUSTS

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  • 2005 First Round BUSTS

    Florio at PFT has declared 15 of the 32 2005 first round picks a BUST, with 3 wait-and-see's (including Rodgers obviously)...

    Clearly, the better teams in the league have been able to get greater contributions from their picks, perhaps due in large part to the opportunity to fit in with a stronger supporting cast.

    Posted by Mike Florio on May 7, 2008, 9:54 p.m.

    1. Alex Smith, quarterback, 49ers: When the first overall pick is competing three years later with Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan for the starting job, that’s by definition a BUST.

    2. Ronnie Brown, running back, Dolphins: After a so-so first year, Brown has been solid. A torn ACL derailed his opportunity to have a strong third year. Though he hasn’t lived up to the billing of the No. 2 overall pick, we’re not yet ready to call him a bust. (But we could be after 2008.)

    3. Braylon Edwards, receiver, Browns: Edward is becoming one of the best receivers in the league. Clearly, not a bust.

    4. Cedric Benson, running back, Bears: He’s been a disappointment on the field, and his arrest conjures memories of past incidents in college. Without question, he’s a BUST.

    5. Cadillac Williams, running back, Buccaneers: Williams made a huge splash as a rookie, but can’t stay healthy. After rupturing a patellar tendon in 2007, he might not play again. If he does, he might never be the same. Based on his top-five selection, he’s a BUST.

    6. Pacman Jones, cornerback, Titans: Do we even have to type the word? BUST

    7. Troy Williamson, receiver, Vikings: We once tried to throw Williamson a compliment, but he dropped that, too. BUST.

    8. Antrel Rolle, cornerback, Cardinals: When a cornerback might be shifted to safety at only age 25, it’s not because he’s a great cornerback. BUST.

    9. Carlos Rogers, cornerback, Redskins: He’s on the path to being declared a bust. We’ll give him one more year.

    10. Mike Williams, receiver, Lions: Maybe he wouldn’t have been a BUST if the Lions had made him an offensive lineman.

    11. DeMarcus Ware, linebacker, Cowboys: A 2006 Pro Bowl + a 2007 Pro Bowl = not a bust.

    12. Shawne Merriman, linebacker, Chargers: He could still be a bust if he gets suspended again for steroids (or blown up on a regular basis by a pint-sized running back); for now, though, Merriman is clearly not a bust.

    13. Jammal Brown, tackle, Saints: The Pro Bowler in 2006 slipped a bit last year, and the Saints were rumored to be shopping him. Still, he’s not a bust.

    14. Thomas Davis, safety/linebacker, Panthers: He’s not spectacular, but he started 16 games in 2007. Not a bust.

    15. Derrick Johnson, linebacker, Chiefs: Johnson made a splash as a rookie and hasn’t taken it quite to the next level in two years since, but he’s not a bust.

    16. Travis Johnson, defensive tackle, Texans: When the biggest hit of your career is one that you unknowingly put on a quarterback’s head with your knee, you might be a redneck. And a BUST.

    17. David Pollack, linebacker, Bengals: Though he was on his way to becoming a great player, a neck injury ended his career early in his second season. Unfortunately, he must be declared a BUST.

    18. Erasmus James, defensive end, Vikings: Knee problems have slowed his development, but barring injury to Jared Allen and Ray Edwards (and maybe Brian Robison), James won’t be a starter in his fourth season. BUST.

    19. Alex Barron, offensive tackle, Rams: The Rams wouldn’t have been dreaming of Jake Long sliding to No. 2 if they thought that Barron was the long-term solution on the left side, or the right. BUST.

    20. Marcus Spears, defensive end, Cowboys: Yeah, he has been a three-year starter. But he was rumored to be on the trading block earlier this year, and his impact hasn’t reflected his stature as one of the top 20 players in the draft. BUST.

    21. Matt Jones, receiver, Jaguars: This much-hyped quarterback-turned-receiver isn’t very good, and doesn’t seem to care. The Jags would have been wise to let him play quarterback — for another team. BUST.

    22. Mark Clayton, receiver, Ravens: The thinking in NFL circles is that a player destined to be a high-end receiver performs like one by his third NFL season. For his third season, Clayton had 49 catches for 531 yards, and no touchdowns. BUST.

    23. Fabian Washington, cornerback, Raiders: Being traded for a fourth-round pick after only three seasons automatically qualifies him for BUST status.

    24. Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Packers: He has looked good when he’s gotten a chance to play, but the jury is out on whether he’s a bust. Get back to us in a year.

    25. Jason Campbell, quarterback, Redskins: Campbell is on his way to becoming a solid starter, and could evolve into one of the better signal-callers in the conference. Not a bust.

    26. Chris Spencer, center, Seahawks: If he’d been taken higher, Spencer might qualify for strong consideration as a bust. But he started every game in 2005, and the Seahawks have gotten decent value out of him. Close, but not a bust.

    27. Roddy White, receiver, Falcons: White was on his way to being a bust after his first two years. He broke out in 2007, which coincidentally was his first season without catching one-hoppers from Mike Vick. Not a bust.

    28. Luis Castillo, defensive tackle, Chargers: Solid defensive linemen despite some injuries. Not a bust.

    29. Marlin Jackson, defensive back, Colts: Steady but unspectacular Tampa Two corner. He might be another Jason David in a defense that requires him to cover wideouts down the field. But his performance allowed the Colts let guys like David walk away. Not a bust.

    30. Heath Miller, tight end, Virginia: The Steelers arguably reached on a guy who wasn’t healthy in the months leading up to the draft. They ended up with a solid tight end. Not a bust.

    31. Mike Patterson, defensive tackle, Eagles: The Philly chapter of PFT Planet will revolt if we were to call Patterson a bust. Not a bust.

    32. Logan Mankins, offensive lineman, Patriots: Solid contributor on the offensive line. Besides, we can’t call anyone who paid $7,500 for the privilege of punching a guy in the crotch a bust.

  • #2
    It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
      It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."
      thats a very tuff call

      but you do have a high draft pic that did next to nothing for your team, so you would have been better off picking someone else

      like us with t-murph. is he a bust or not? the guy showed he could turn out to be a great player, but he really didn't contribute at all to the team. so it turned out to be a wasted pick

      but in most of these cases a gm can't possibly imagine that the guys career will be cut short by injury. so you can't really blame the gm, and call his pick a bust. unless its a case like harrell, where the guy has a huge list of former injuries, if his career turns out to be a waste do to injury, then you have to say, yes, that was the gm's fault because you know the guy has a history

      its difficult

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by red
        Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
        It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."
        thats a very tuff call

        but you do have a high draft pic that did next to nothing for your team, so you would have been better off picking someone else

        like us with t-murph. is he a bust or not? the guy showed he could turn out to be a great player, but he really didn't contribute at all to the team. so it turned out to be a wasted pick

        but in most of these cases a gm can't possibly imagine that the guys career will be cut short by injury. so you can't really blame the gm, and call his pick a bust. unless its a case like harrell, where the guy has a huge list of former injuries, if his career turns out to be a waste do to injury, then you have to say, yes, that was the gm's fault because you know the guy has a history

        its difficult
        Cadillac Williams would be an example of that. He was basically a star until he got hurt.

        Antrel Rolle started off strong, too. You can't call a guy a bust just because he tailed off. Rolle is a decent corner that needs to pick it up.

        Comment


        • #5
          [quote="KYPack"][quote="red"]
          Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
          Cadillac Williams would be an example of that. He was basically a star until he got hurt.
          Cadillac was the primary one I was thinking of regarding this. I wouldn't consider him a bust. I agree, though, that if there is a prior HISTORY of injuries, then THAT would be a bust because the scouting dept./GM would have known this going into the pick and still rolled the dice.

          If there isn't any indication of an injury that would be significant prior to the pick, though, and THEN sustains a big injury that thereafter hampers his career, that is a different story.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
            It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."
            I agree, and this category is a high percentage of the people he calls busts. To me, a bust is different than a disappointment; Cadillac getting hurt was a disappointment in Tampa Bay, but he didn't fail when he was able to perform. That in my mind makes him a disappointment, not a bust.
            Teamwork is what the Green Bay Packers were all about. They didn't do it for individual glory. They did it because they loved one another.
            Vince Lombardi

            Comment


            • #7
              This article gives support to my article that you cannot effectively "grade" the value of an NFL drafte until 3 years after the draft. You just never know how these players are going to play at the pro level.

              There are countless examples of 1st round picks who are busts and late round picks who become all-Pros. Certainly, there are many examples of first round pics who develop into all-pros and late round picks who never make the training camp cuts.

              What I am saying that all the "experts" and non-experts like me, cannot effectively grade the 2008 draft until 2011. Sure, we can applaud or bemoan certain picks but the real evaluation comes three years later, IMO.

              Comment


              • #8
                Kind of the same with Terrence Murphy. I don't consider him a bust, and I don't consider a bad pick. Just bad luck. He hadn't gotten hurt in college, so you wouldn't have expected him to get hurt. Now, if Justin Harrell gets injured, I think you could label it a bust.

                Antrell Rolle isn't a complete bust, but he was just an average corner. He's playing safety now, and I think he's better suited for that. So, I think the jury is still out on him.
                "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

                Comment


                • #9
                  It's interesting how most of the picks in the top half of the round are busts...makes me feel better about TT picking at 30 (well, 36 actually). Where someone gets drafted obviously plays into this; if Ronnie Brown or Cadillac were drafted between picks 8-15 I doubt they would be considered busts.
                  I'm not sure it's fair to label someone a bust because they get an ACL injury within 3 years. A GM usually can't predict or prevent a player from getting hurt.

                  Here's hoping Rodgers stays healthy and out of the BUST category.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL Draft First Round=the most over-rated hyped up land mine in all of sports. Any team that can get out of the first round and get value should. Until there is a rookie salary cap I would jump out of the first round at the first possible opportunity.

                    There isn't anything real unusual about 2005. Just google it and look back. Florio is one of the few guys with the stones to keep bringing it up.

                    I would rather be the team that pays the highest salaries and incentives to it's GM and scouts than overrated ball busters like these guys.

                    P.s. I think were among that group.
                    Lombardi told Starr to "Run it, and let's get the hell out of here!" - 'Ice Bowl' December 31, 1967

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      What a shitty year for first round picks.
                      In truth, the first round is usually where the superstars are found. The NFL Hall of Fame site lists the Hall of Famers and their draft position.

                      82 taken in the first round

                      -27 picked in the second round

                      -18 picked in the third

                      -40 from all the rest of the rounds

                      -3 'special selections'

                      -13 undrafted

                      Almost half of the HOF was taken in the first round. And, a lot of those second round picks would be in the first round in today's 32 team NFL.



                      Visit the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio & create long-lasting memories. Learn about the Legends of the Game & experience interactive exhibits.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Hinging too much on the word bust...I think what he was trying to get at was 'given a do-over, this wouldn't be the selection', or 'didn't come close to meeting expectations'.

                        Putting it that way, you have to agree with most of his evaluations. Even Rolle, who I consider the most boderline, because nobody takes a safety that high.

                        Who from the first round of that draft is out of the league? Cadillac and Pacman are close. M. Williams and Pollock are gone. Counting the almosts as half, thats 3 players in 2 seasons. About average, I'd guess. But with the amount of major disappointments, I can see that number going way up after '08.

                        btw the most informative part for me...O'Sullivan is in SF??? lol
                        --
                        Imagine for a moment a world without hypothetical situations...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by red
                          Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
                          It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."
                          thats a very tuff call

                          but you do have a high draft pic that did next to nothing for your team, so you would have been better off picking someone else

                          like us with t-murph. is he a bust or not? the guy showed he could turn out to be a great player, but he really didn't contribute at all to the team. so it turned out to be a wasted pick

                          but in most of these cases a gm can't possibly imagine that the guys career will be cut short by injury. so you can't really blame the gm, and call his pick a bust. unless its a case like harrell, where the guy has a huge list of former injuries, if his career turns out to be a waste do to injury, then you have to say, yes, that was the gm's fault because you know the guy has a history

                          its difficult
                          I would agree, Red. If a guy doesn't have an injury history and then gets injured to the extent his career is ruined, then he's not a "bust." A bust, by my definition, is a bad pick - one you might have been able to avoid. So if a guy without an injury history gets hurt and is lost forever, you couldn't have foreseen that - so it's not a bust, it's bad luck.

                          On the other hand, if you pick a guy with an injury history and he re-injures that same body part, or if he's just gotten hurt a lot and lets the stuff keep him out in college, then the GM had that background, coulda picked someone else but didn't, so that guy is a bust.

                          I don't think Murph was a bust. That was bad luck. If Harrell doesn't work out cuz he never can get healthy, then he's a bust cuz TT knew of his injury history ahead of time.
                          "The Devine era is actually worse than you remember if you go back and look at it."

                          KYPack

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2005 First Round BUSTS

                            Posted by Mike Florio on May 7, 2008, 9:54 p.m.


                            8. Antrel Rolle, cornerback, Cardinals: When a cornerback might be shifted to safety at only age 25, it’s not because he’s a great cornerback. BUST.
                            By that definition, Leroy Butler was a bust. Drafted as and started for the Packers as a cornerback, and was not a great one. Was shifted to safety as a 24 year old.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SudsMcBucky
                              It is hard for me to consider anyone who's only apparent setback to be injury as a BUST. If he showed the tools to be an extremely productive NFL player but had a significant injury situation, I'd consider that more "bad luck", but not really labeled as "bust."
                              HAAAAA--yeah that's because you're not paying him. With all the hype in the first round-He's a bust. A huge bust!
                              Lombardi told Starr to "Run it, and let's get the hell out of here!" - 'Ice Bowl' December 31, 1967

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