Favre td to int ratio

[pbmax]

Plyr...............Att/TD.......Att/Int........Diff
J Montana..........19.75........38.78.........19.04
D Marino............19.90........33.17.........13.27
B Favre..............19.22........29.85.........10.6 3
J Elway...............24.17........32.08..........7. 91
B Esiason...........21.07........28.29..........7.22
J Kelly................20.16........27.31..........7 .14
D Krieg..............20.35........26.69...........6. 34
P Simms............23.35........29.60...........6.25
D Bledsoe..........26.84........33.07...........6.23
W Moon.............23.45........29.28...........5.84
F Tarkenton........18.91........24.31..........5.40
T Aikman...........28.58........33.44..........4.86
J Everett.............24.25........28.13..........3. 88
J Unitas..............17.88.......20.50...........2. 62
K Collins............29.38........30.61...........1. 24
D Fouts..............22.06........23.16...........1. 09
V Testaverde......24.26........25.00...........0.74
S Deberg............25.63........24.63.........-1.01
J Hadl................19.21........17.49..........-1.72
J Hart................24.29.........20.55..........-3.74

[MadtownPacker]

WOW, first Shamrock breaks down OTA attendence then Red cracks down on Favre fact! You got down player!

[Bretsky]

Why is anyone that points out, that Favre needs to play better this season than last, considered a Favre "basher." I have always said that Brett is a great Q.B., but he can't have a repeat performance of last season, no matter the circumstances. Don't paint everyone that thinks Favre has to play better, as a hater. Some of us want him to do well, but we're not going to make excuses for him when he doesn't.

Who said you were a Favre hater ? You are a bit defensive today SOV.

[Bretsky]

Plyr...............Att/TD.......Att/Int........Diff
J Montana..........19.75........38.78.........19.04
D Marino............19.90........33.17.........13.27
B Favre..............19.22........29.85.........10.6 3
J Elway...............24.17........32.08..........7. 91
B Esiason...........21.07........28.29..........7.22
J Kelly................20.16........27.31..........7 .14
D Krieg..............20.35........26.69...........6. 34
P Simms............23.35........29.60...........6.25
D Bledsoe..........26.84........33.07...........6.23
W Moon.............23.45........29.28...........5.84
F Tarkenton........18.91........24.31..........5.40
T Aikman...........28.58........33.44..........4.86
J Everett.............24.25........28.13..........3. 88
J Unitas..............17.88.......20.50...........2. 62
K Collins............29.38........30.61...........1. 24
D Fouts..............22.06........23.16...........1. 09
V Testaverde......24.26........25.00...........0.74
S Deberg............25.63........24.63.........-1.01
J Hadl................19.21........17.49..........-1.72
J Hart................24.29.........20.55..........-3.74

This is great information as well.

Bretsky

[KYPack]

Good job, Red.

It's amazing when there is a lot of discussion about a topic, then you do the work and look up the answer & nobody seems to care or post.

[pbmax]

Brad Johnson!?

Plyr...............Att/TD.........Att/Int.........Diff
T Brady..............20.72..........38.61..........1 7.89
B Johnson..........24.50..........37.23..........12. 73
B.Roethlisberger..16.56..........28.15..........11 .59
K.Warner............19.66..........30.00.......... 10.34
R.Staubach.........19.33..........27.14..........7 .80
M.Rypien............22.72..........29.69.......... 6.97
L.Dawson...........15.65..........20.44..........4 .79
J.Theismann.......22.51..........26.10..........3. 59
J.McMahon..........25.73..........28.59..........2 .86
B.Starr...............20.72..........22.82........ ..2.10
B.Griese.............17.86..........19.94......... .2.08
D.Williams..........25.07..........26.96.......... 1.89
T.Bradshaw.........18.40..........18.58..........0 .18
K.Stabler............19.55..........17.09......... .-2.47
T.Dilfer...............27.85..........25.23....... ...-2.62
J.Plunkett...........22.57..........18.69......... .-3.88
J.Namath............21.75..........17.10..........-4.65

[Patler]

Red, I also did a similar analysis elsewhere, except I compared interceptions directly to attempts. Again, Favre fairs pretty well. The reason I don't like the comparison to TDs is that a lot depends on the teams "1st and goal" philosophy, which I recognize can be dictated by the quality of the QB. However, for many years the Packers play selection inside the 5 was heavily weighted toward passing.

I like comparisons to attempts because it is a simple question, "When he throws the ball, how often do the 'bad guys' catch it?" Taking your list of the top 20 in attempts, the percentage of interceptions to attempts looks like this:

D Marino..........8358/252 .... 3.01%
B Favre............7612/255 .... 3.35 %
J Elway.............7250/226..... 3.12%
W Moon ...........6823/233..... 3.41%
D Bledsoe ........6548/198..... 3.02%
V Testaverde.....6526/261..... 4.00%
F Tarkenton.......6467/266..... 4.11%
D Fouts ............5604/242..... 4.32%
J Montana .........5391/139..... 2.58%
D Krieg .............5311/199..... 3.75%
B Esiason ..........5205/184..... 3.54%
J Unitas..............5186/253..... 4.88%
K Collins ............5082/166..... 3.27%
J Hart ................5076/247..... 4.87%
S Deberg ............5024/204..... 4.06%
J Everett .............4923/175..... 3.55%
J Kelly ................4779/175..... 3.66%
T Aikman ..........4715./141..... 2.99%
J Hadl ................4687/268..... 5.71%
P Simms ............4647/157..... 3.38%

Favre is #7 best (7th lowest interception percentage).

The long and short of it is that Favre has thrown the ball a lot of times. Because of that, he has an awful lot of completions, TDs and interceptions, as you would expect. If he wasn't a great QB, he would never have had the opportunity to throw as many passes as he has. His is among the best in every category, no matter how you compare it.

[esoxx]

I've always felt uncomfortable "defending" Favre to other Packer fans. What's funny is I never seem to have to defend him to other teams fans. They respect him b/c they've been on the receiving end of his thunder. Meanwhile, Packer fans seem to take him for granted. Now, does this mean he played well last year and doesn't need to play better this year? No. I don't think anyone's thinking or saying that. It's just the lack of persepctive given to Favre's overall body of work, by the actual following of the Green & Gold, I often find embarrasing and based in ignorance and petulance.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

The problem with Favre is, he likes to throw ints at the most opportune time. No one would be talking about 4-26 or 4-1 if not for 1st and 10 in overtime against the Eagles after the Pack defense had just got the ball back. Throw it away, hell even take a sack, and hope would still be alieve and Pack would have gone on to beat Carolina and win the SB.

That game wasn't Mike Sherman's fault.

[woodbuck27]

Good job, Red.

It's amazing when there is a lot of discussion about a topic, then you do the work and look up the answer & nobody seems to care or post.

Yea. They all go to the toilet.

That is what the forum is really all about . To divert 'the dieing brain syndroms'.

Now alot of the posters on here, will argue that for some, that issue is already settled.

[red]

Red, I also did a similar analysis elsewhere, except I compared interceptions directly to attempts. Again, Favre fairs pretty well. The reason I don't like the comparison to TDs is that a lot depends on the teams "1st and goal" philosophy, which I recognize can be dictated by the quality of the QB. However, for many years the Packers play selection inside the 5 was heavily weighted toward passing.

I like comparisons to attempts because it is a simple question, "When he throws the ball, how often do the 'bad guys' catch it?" Taking your list of the top 20 in attempts, the percentage of interceptions to attempts looks like this:

D Marino..........8358/252 .... 3.01%
B Favre............7612/255 .... 3.35 %
J Elway.............7250/226..... 3.12%
W Moon ...........6823/233..... 3.41%
D Bledsoe ........6548/198..... 3.02%
V Testaverde.....6526/261..... 4.00%
F Tarkenton.......6467/266..... 4.11%
D Fouts ............5604/242..... 4.32%
J Montana .........5391/139..... 2.58%
D Krieg .............5311/199..... 3.75%
B Esiason ..........5205/184..... 3.54%
J Unitas..............5186/253..... 4.88%
K Collins ............5082/166..... 3.27%
J Hart ................5076/247..... 4.87%
S Deberg ............5024/204..... 4.06%
J Everett .............4923/175..... 3.55%
J Kelly ................4779/175..... 3.66%
T Aikman ..........4715./141..... 2.99%
J Hadl ................4687/268..... 5.71%
P Simms ............4647/157..... 3.38%

Favre is #7 best (7th lowest interception percentage).

The long and short of it is that Favre has thrown the ball a lot of times. Because of that, he has an awful lot of completions, TDs and interceptions, as you would expect. If he wasn't a great QB, he would never have had the opportunity to throw as many passes as he has. His is among the best in every category, no matter how you compare it.

the reason i don't like that way is because it doesn't really show the productive good numbers. and just like the reason you gave for not liking the td ratio, this one also depends a lot on the offense run. if there is a pass happy team that likes to bomb the ball down the field alot (like we did last season) then the INT ratio will be higher compared to the attempts. but if its an offense that dinks and dunks with little short passes all day, the attempts will be way up and the ints should be way down

i do like that other numbers that pbmax gave a lot. using int % to td %. it kind of takes the best of both worlds

[Patler]

the reason i don't like that way is because it doesn't really show the productive good numbers. and just like the reason you gave for not liking the td ratio, this one also depends a lot on the offense run. if there is a pass happy team that likes to bomb the ball down the field alot (like we did last season) then the INT ratio will be higher compared to the attempts. but if its an offense that dinks and dunks with little short passes all day, the attempts will be way up and the ints should be way down

i do like that other numbers that pbmax gave a lot. using int % to td %. it kind of takes the best of both worlds

I don't think an interception analysis shouldn't show good numbers. There is no relationship between touchdowns and interceptions, in my opinion. The two are unrelated. As far as a pass happy team, long bombs are still the responsibility of the QB, he has to take care of the ball in that situation too. And we saw last year that the dinks and dunks can be intercepted too. Favre had plenty of those, including the one against the Bears for a TD. To me, the qustion is very simple. When he throws the ball, does he take care of it, or is he careless with it.

[pbmax]

shamler, I was going to do a list of how the drive "ended" for the team. Either INT or score. I think TDs not FGs, but you could argue either case.

And it was because of the point you made. QBs can control most, not all, of the INTS. There are still the matter of tipped or deflected passes, as well as wrong routes to a lesser degree.

But in any case, an INT ends the possession and the possibility to score. And it should be compared to total scoring opportunities and actual scores. A good QB would maximize the latter, no matter who scores and minimizes the former.

As I said, I was going to do it, but the data was all over the place and would take forever to lookup. Not to mention finding older game data.

Have you ever visited footballoutsiders.com? You might like it.

[Patler]

As I said, I was going to do it, but the data was all over the place and would take forever to lookup. Not to mention finding older game data.

Ya, so what's the problem? Get on it!!

[Patler]

But in any case, an INT ends the possession and the possibility to score. And it should be compared to total scoring opportunities and actual scores. A good QB would maximize the latter, no matter who scores and minimizes the former.

Those kinds of comparisons are very interesting, but can be a little mind boggling too.

An interception in the red zone ends a real scoring opportunity, but if the defense gets a "3 and out" you're often right back there again.

An interception deep in your own territory doesn't end much of a scoring opportunity for you, but may result in an immediate scoring opportunity for your opponent.

Which is worse? I would argue that any interception when the line of scrimmage is inside either 30 yard line is much worse than an interception when the line of scrimmage is between the 30s. If I did an anlysis like you suggested, I would identify at least those three groups.