How Has the Game Changed Over the Decades?

[Fritz]

I heard an absolutely fascinating claim on the radio tonight. It was staticky so I didn't catch the name, but in an interview this guy from - I think - footballoutsiders.com claimed that many announcers today overemphasize the importance of the running game. He says this is because many of them played in the 70's, when the running game was much more emphasized. Then he said this: that pro football was more pass-oriented in the 50's, 60's and even the 40's than it was in the 70's.

So I had to check this out. Went to Profootballreference.com and took some random samples. Here they are:

Year #Passes Passes Yds/G Rush Att/G Yds/G
Comp./G Att/G

1943 9.6 - 21.7 141.7 36.8 118
1945 9.6 - 21.2 143.8 36.2 122.7
1948 12.5 - 26 173.9 37.9 151

1953 14 - 29.6 173.8 33.5 133.6
1955 12.7 - 26.5 159.8 36.8 147.1

1963 14.2 - 27.6 185.7 31.2 126
1965 14.2 - 27 183.8 30.8 127
1968 13.8 - 26.8 168.5 31.5 126

1973 12.6 - 24.3 140 35.5 144
1975 14 - 27 162.8 36.3 145
1978 14 - 26.4 158.8 35.9 141.8

2003 18.9 - 32 200 28.3 117
2005 19.1 - 32.2 203 28.1 112

Holy cow. There's lots to be said about all this, and I can't wait to read what you all make of this.

One thing I see is that the run/pass ration has changed over the years, and I'm tempted to go for cause/effect reasoning and say this is because - it seems - passing has become more efficient over time. In the forties and fifities teams completed less than half of their pass attempts. In the 2000's that has changed considerably. So it seems on the surface that passing is a more high-percentage option than it used to be. The seventies featured more running than the sixties, but the announcer appears to be wrong - the forties and fifties seem fairly equal to the seventies in terms of rushing attempts. However, the seventies seemed to feature an ability to make yards running - look how high the rushing yds/game is compared to other decades.

Wow. So were the seventies the be-all and end-all of rushing the football? And has it influenced not only announcers but those like me, who came of age in the seventies, to over-emphasize the need to run the football?

Does this affect the way we judge play-calling today?

[mraynrand]

Do those numbers include the AFL? I assume so. Without looking, I'm thinking: pass happy. What happens to 'pro football' stats in the 2000s if you factor in arena ball?

[Harlan Huckleby]

all i know is that there aren't any players like Brian Noble in the league anymore and I don't like it.

[mraynrand]

Or guys like Bryan Cox with the swim board coming out of their collar.

[Tyrone Bigguns]

ty wishes fritz knew how to make tables.

(edit)
let's see if tables work here:

<table>
<tr>
<td>Year </td><td>#Passes </td> <td> pass Attempts</td> <td>passing Yards</td> <td>rushing attempts</td><td>Yards</td>

</tr>
</table>

[Tyrone Bigguns]

Ty apologizes to Fritz...and curses Mad.

[mraynrand]

ty wishes fritz knew how to make tables.

(edit)
let's see if tables work here:

<table>
<tr>
<td>Year </td><td>#Passes </td> <td> pass Attempts</td> <td>passing Yards</td> <td>rushing attempts</td><td>Yards</td>

</tr>
</table>

Even if it worked, that's too much work!

[TravisWilliams23]

I think the defense and defensive schemes were becoming dominant in the 70's. The NFL was seeing lower scoring games and wanted to keep or gain the fan base so they devised rules to "allow" the receivers to basically run free down the field + they were smart enough to change rules to "protect" the quarterbacks more. I remember watching games where the defense would absolutely mug a receiver off the line with no chance of that receiver getting open. At the time it was legal and smart defensive coordinators used it to take another teams weapon out of the game.
That's one of the biggest reasons why the passing game is showing so much improvement over the running game now.

[pbmax]

Re: How Has the Game Changed Over the Decades?

Its a great site and while it takes a while to slog through and become familiar with the stats, they make some great points. And that is the website as you have it: Football Outsiders.

As for the run to win philosophy see:

100 Yards Rushing = Win?

and Establish the Run Early to Win-Not So Much

The point most likely made on the radio (if its the one I have heard Schatz making before) isn't that statistics show why teams to choose the run/pass mix, but that the analysis that came of age during the 70s in the NFL and the 3 yards and a cloud of dust in College, often focuses on gameplans that are unique compared to other decades.

They also have data that show running early isn't a good indicator of success. Running late is, for obvious reasons. Packer fans who remember our Defense pre-Bates in 2004, will remember a defense that on based on statistical ranks looked like it could defend the pass. But what was really happening was that that D gave up the lead early to teams that were passing and then were so bad at run D that they could not get the ball back late in the game.

I heard an absolutely fascinating claim on the radio tonight. It was staticky so I didn't catch the name, but in an interview this guy from - I think - footballoutsiders.com claimed that many announcers today overemphasize the importance of the running game. He says this is because many of them played in the 70's, when the running game was much more emphasized. Then he said this: that pro football was more pass-oriented in the 50's, 60's and even the 40's than it was in the 70's.

[pbmax]

Your point is a good one. And given the way the game had been played previously, it also puts the NFL decision in 1978 in a good light. At the time, the rules changes were widely criticized as changing the fundamental nature of the game by helping the offense.

Given that offense was at an all-time low in the early 70s, this decision makes more sense. Commentators, to me, did not seem to warm to the idea of passing more than running until the 49ers had won two Super Bowls. The usual cautionary tale of being out of balance was the San Diego Chargers of Fouts, Winslow, Jefferson and Joiner.

I think the defense and defensive schemes were becoming dominant in the 70's. The NFL was seeing lower scoring games and wanted to keep or gain the fan base so they devised rules to "allow" the receivers to basically run free down the field + they were smart enough to change rules to "protect" the quarterbacks more. I remember watching games where the defense would absolutely mug a receiver off the line with no chance of that receiver getting open. At the time it was legal and smart defensive coordinators used it to take another teams weapon out of the game.
That's one of the biggest reasons why the passing game is showing so much improvement over the running game now.

[mraynrand]

The usual cautionary tale of being out of balance was the San Diego Chargers of Fouts, Winslow, Jefferson and Joiner.

And who wanted to watch that? But the west coast offense really came into prominence because offenses like the Chargers (and Oakland) were based on a passing game that made liberal use of the deep ball - requiring 7 step drops and resulting in sacks-o-plenty. Thus, the dump off/check down off the 3 step drop that neutralizes the pass rush. The rules will always have to be tweaked, because constant adjustment. As long as the NFL doesn't ever look too much like the arena league, it should be OK.

[Deputy Nutz]

Most points=wins

I don't think that has ever changed. There are all kids of philosophies about winning football games, but the only one that is 100% factual is the above equation.

[Fritz]

I think the defense and defensive schemes were becoming dominant in the 70's. The NFL was seeing lower scoring games and wanted to keep or gain the fan base so they devised rules to "allow" the receivers to basically run free down the field + they were smart enough to change rules to "protect" the quarterbacks more. I remember watching games where the defense would absolutely mug a receiver off the line with no chance of that receiver getting open. At the time it was legal and smart defensive coordinators used it to take another teams weapon out of the game.
That's one of the biggest reasons why the passing game is showing so much improvement over the running game now.

You make a good point about rules changes, but there are a couple of issues that remain a mystery to me:

First, why was % of completions so low? I mean, mugging a guy at the line means he won't get open - so that would explain fewer attempts. But why were offenses of the 40's and 50's not able to complete half the attempts they made? Did they throw more long balls, maybe?

Secondly, the rules changes don't quite explain why teams in the 70's seemed to be able to gain so many yards rushing. I guess I ought to figure the yards/carry, but on the surface it appears to be higher than in other decades. Why?

[Patler]

You make a good point about rules changes, but there are a couple of issues that remain a mystery to me:

First, why was % of completions so low? I mean, mugging a guy at the line means he won't get open - so that would explain fewer attempts. But why were offenses of the 40's and 50's not able to complete half the attempts they made? Did they throw more long balls, maybe?

I don't know exactly when the rule changed, but the "5 yard contact" rule changed things significantly. It used to be the DB could stay in contact with the receiver until the ball was in the air. By maintaining contact you can feel the direction the receiver is going, and maintain tighter coverage. Practically, it meant more situations where both players were going for the ball (their rights to it are equal) Subconsciously, it was just a more physical game around the point of reception. Now the DB gets called if he touches the receiver and his options are to get the ball or lay the hit on afterward.

You didn't used to see as many multiple receiver formations, motion, etc all designed to get mismatches and cause confusion and easy completions.

Lots of little reasons too:

Receivers now use gloves that help greatly in catching a ball. Bare hands, then moderate amounts of "stick-um" were all that was allowed. Todays gloves are designed to make it less likely the ball will slide through.

Over the years the shape and surface texture of the ball has changed, new balls are put into play frequently.

Teams are allowed to "prepare" the balls their offense will use in the game, to their QB's preference.

The rules to protect the QB give them the confidence to stand in and throw, without thinking of a hit after the throw. QBs commonly got drilled just from a lineman's "momentum" carrying him into the QB.

[Fritz]

Hmm. Interesting. Any theories about why the 70's teams seemed to do so well running the ball? These days if you get over 100 yards on the ground it's an accomplishment. In the seventies the league average was around 142 yds/game. Wow. And that's with maybe - maybe four or five more carries per game than the sixties, and nearly an equal number of carries in the forties and fifties. Hmm.

I thought - as far as the balls went - that a couple of years ago the NFL stopped allowing teams to "work over" the balls that were used in the game. Remember Ryan Longwell and other kickers talking about how hard it was going to be to kick the "new" balls?

It appears from what you and others have said, that the rules changes are the primary reason passing is so much more efficient these days.

This brings up one of my original questions: I'm a fan of the running game. Am I overemphasizing its importance because I came of age in the seventies?

I wonder what some of you other old timers think of this. I still get uncomfortable when the coach calls for 35 - 40 passes in a game.