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This is a division that features new head coaches at three of the four franchises. The only team that seems to have continuity and stability is Chicago, which returns all 22 starters from a year ago, in addition to the same coaching staff. The Bears also have the easiest schedule in the NFL.
New Minnesota coach Brad Childress has a great roster on paper and the Vikings were very active in free agency. But will they jell? New Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli is a tough guy who will bring discipline to a non-disciplined team. But will that be enough, even with a pretty talented roster? Green Bay still has Brett Favre, but the Packers also have a rookie head coach and marginal personnel on both sides of the ball.
This division should be dominated by the talented Bears and 2005 NFL Coach of the Year Lovie Smith. We will know early how the NFC North will shake out as Chicago opens the season with Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota. The Bears should win the division, but Minnesota is very dangerous and Detroit and Green Bay are capable of playing better than expected, which adds up to a very competitive race in 2006.
Chicago Bears
Obviously, Chicago feels it has the pieces in place to contend for the Super Bowl. The Bears have a built-in advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL, as their 2006 opponents had a combined record of 114-142 in 2005. Rex Grossman returns at quarterback and he is competent and confident. However, if he stumbles at all, veteran Brian Griese easily can step in and give direction to this run-oriented offense. That's a far cry from 2005, when rookie Kyle Orton was thrown into a Bears' starting role even though he wasn't ready.
Thomas Jones
Running back
Chicago Bears
Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Yds Avg Long TD
314 1335 4.3 42 9
The duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should give the Bears a potent run game; both backs could get 200 carries in 2006. The biggest challenge for Chicago is to become more explosive on offense and create more big plays. In all of their five losses a year ago, the Bears scored 10 points or less and averaged only 43 yards per offensive play.
With Grossman at quarterback they will open up the offense and won't be as predictable as they were a year ago. A strong run game, better decision-making at QB, and a good play-action package should add up to a dramatic improvement in offensive production.
Defensively, the Bears will be rock solid. They return all of their starters from a year ago, including five Pro Bowlers. This was the No. 2 total defense in the NFL and the No. 1 scoring defense in 2005. Led by middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, the Bears' entire defense has great range and speed. It plays the Cover 2 scheme to perfection and is a great attacking unit. The scary thing about the Bears' defense is that it is young, with no starters over 29, so it should be good for years to come.
This is a very confident group of players and coaches who expect to win with a strong run game and defense. The Bears might not be flashy, but they know what it takes to win games.
Minnesota Vikings
This was a good football team a year ago that seemed to lack discipline. New head coach Brad Childress will establish an environment of mental toughness and stress cutting down on the mistakes that haunted the Vikings in 2005. They were horrible on third down on both sides of the ball, finishing 30th in offensive conversions and 31st in defensive efficiency on third downs. That led to marginal time of possession and forced a good defense to be on the field too much.
In 2006, Minnesota will run a West Coast offense that is run-oriented with Childress calling the plays out of two-back sets. Defensively, coordinator Mike Tomlin will bring the Cover 2 defense from Tampa Bay. Both schemes appear to fit the Vikings' personnel very well. A big key will be quarterback Brad Johnson. If a revamped offensive line, led by All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson from Seattle, can protect him, this can be a versatile, but safe offense capable of ball control.
Chester Taylor
Running back
Minnesota Vikings
Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Yds Avg Long TD
117 487 4.2 52 0
Former Ravens running back Chester Taylor finally gets a chance to start, but he's never had over 160 carries in any NFL campaign. This will be a physical and efficient offense designed to chew up the clock and operate with improved discipline from a year ago.
The defensive personnel is better than the production they showed in 2005. The Vikings have an excellent defensive line rotation, led by mammoth tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, and have a rock solid secondary, led by free safety Darren Sharper and cornerback Antoine Winfield. There is some work to do at linebacker, but this unit has depth and good speed. The Vikings will concentrate on getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks (only 34 sacks in 2005) and concentrate on not giving up big plays and having coverage breakdowns (22nd in pass defense in 2005).
Minnesota was the most aggressive organization in the NFL this offseason. They had $31.5 million in salary-cap room with which to work, and owner Zygi Wilf let them spend it all on 10 quality free agents. In addition to the new players, Childress has the largest coaching staff in the NFL, with 21 assistants. The organization believes that the 9-7 team from a year ago badly underachieved and anything less than a solid playoff run will be a disappointment.
Detroit Lions
Under Marinelli, things will be different than they were under Steve Mariucci. Marinelli is a strong disciplinarian who will demand dedication and toughness from his players. If they don't conform to his system, they will be gone. This is a roster with good, but underachieving talent -- especially on offense. So how do they fix an offense that was ranked 26th in passing, 26th in rushing and 27th in first downs and one that produced only 29 touchdowns in 2006?
Enter ex-St. Louis head coach Mike Martz, who will run a much more balanced and complicated offense. He will install a sophisticated passing game, featuring a lot of deep crossing routes by his wide receivers, with backs and tight ends utilizing underneath dump-offs and safety-valve passes. He also will utilize a run game with a lot of draws and isolation plays by running back Kevin Jones -- usually against soft nickel and dime defenses.
The offensive line is not pretty, but it is made up of tough, blue collar guys who will get the job done. Success on offense will come down to which quarterback, Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, can run this offense without a lot of mistakes and whether an underachieving receiving corps of Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams can handle the intricate route-running demands of Martz's offense.
Defensively, new coordinator Donnie Henderson is a vocal guy who demands speed and toughness from his players. Detroit will employ the Cover 2 with an emphasis on eliminating mistakes and the big plays that plagued it a year ago. The linebackers are fast and active, but the secondary is just average and needs the benefit of a solid pass rush for protection.
This is a better roster than a lot of people realize, but the Lions have not played with any sense of urgency. To establish an improved atmosphere the Lions signed 15 free agents this offseason, and most of them are journeyman-type players with average skills but great work habits and attention to detail. Marinelli is counting on this influx of his kind of guys to improve the practice habits and competitiveness of his talented, young underachievers.
The philosophy for Detroit in 2006 will be to play sound on both sides of the ball, along with being more physical. Expect continued turnover in personnel by Marinelli and his staff as they try to put together the right group of players to carry out the plan. Detroit might not be a playoff contender in 2006, but it won't be the soft pushover it has been in the past.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers enter the 2006 season with the weakest personnel in the division, a new and untested head coach, and a future Hall of Fame quarterback who is coming off the most uneven season of his career. If you are a Green Bay fan you have to look long and hard for positive signs.
It all starts with Brett Favre, who returns for his 16th season. Despite his flaws, he still is one of the most exciting players in the league. He still can make all the throws and his leadership and competitiveness are legendary -- but he must cut down on his mistakes. In 2005, he threw an amazing 29 interceptions against 20 touchdowns and the Packers' offense also lost 15 fumbles. A lot of the offensive problems were due to a rash of key injuries and a glaring lack of playmakers.
The problem for this organization is that it did virtually nothing in free agency to add talent. However, to be fair, the front office did a nice job of re-signing some of its own key players, including backs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. To cut down on mistakes and also get more production from a 30th-ranked rushing offense in 2005, new coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is installing a new zone-blocking scheme and the players really seem to be buying into it.
The key for success offensively will be for new head coach Mike McCarthy to simplify the offense and make easier reads for Favre. The Packers' offense will feature a lot of slants and crossing routes with fewer vertical throws.
Defensively, the Packers played better than their talent level a year ago under coordinator Jim Bates. With virtually no stars on defense, Green Bay finished seventh in total defense and led the league in passing yards allowed per game. Bates is gone, but the Packers will retain his aggressive defensive schemes that feature a variety of blitzes and a lot of press coverages.
The front office did a good job of upgrading talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers added free agents Charles Woodson (defensive back), Ben Leber (linebacker) and Ryan Pickett (defensive tackle). They also selected playmaking linebacker A.JHawk in the first round of the draft. This will be a faster and more active defense with better coverage skills than a year ago.
Coaching will be a big key to the success of this team in 2006. McCarthy has never been in this role before -- on any level -- and both coordinators, Jagodzinski and Bob Sanders, have never been in that role on the NFL level.
However, before Packers fans give up on the 2006 season, we should remember that this team lost eight games in 2005 by seven points or less. If Green Bay can cut down on turnovers, some of those narrow losses could turn into wins. With Favre, anything is possible.
Gary Horton has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm called "The War Room."
New Minnesota coach Brad Childress has a great roster on paper and the Vikings were very active in free agency. But will they jell? New Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli is a tough guy who will bring discipline to a non-disciplined team. But will that be enough, even with a pretty talented roster? Green Bay still has Brett Favre, but the Packers also have a rookie head coach and marginal personnel on both sides of the ball.
This division should be dominated by the talented Bears and 2005 NFL Coach of the Year Lovie Smith. We will know early how the NFC North will shake out as Chicago opens the season with Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota. The Bears should win the division, but Minnesota is very dangerous and Detroit and Green Bay are capable of playing better than expected, which adds up to a very competitive race in 2006.
Chicago Bears
Obviously, Chicago feels it has the pieces in place to contend for the Super Bowl. The Bears have a built-in advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL, as their 2006 opponents had a combined record of 114-142 in 2005. Rex Grossman returns at quarterback and he is competent and confident. However, if he stumbles at all, veteran Brian Griese easily can step in and give direction to this run-oriented offense. That's a far cry from 2005, when rookie Kyle Orton was thrown into a Bears' starting role even though he wasn't ready.
Thomas Jones
Running back
Chicago Bears
Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Yds Avg Long TD
314 1335 4.3 42 9
The duo of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson should give the Bears a potent run game; both backs could get 200 carries in 2006. The biggest challenge for Chicago is to become more explosive on offense and create more big plays. In all of their five losses a year ago, the Bears scored 10 points or less and averaged only 43 yards per offensive play.
With Grossman at quarterback they will open up the offense and won't be as predictable as they were a year ago. A strong run game, better decision-making at QB, and a good play-action package should add up to a dramatic improvement in offensive production.
Defensively, the Bears will be rock solid. They return all of their starters from a year ago, including five Pro Bowlers. This was the No. 2 total defense in the NFL and the No. 1 scoring defense in 2005. Led by middle linebacker Brian Urlacher, the Bears' entire defense has great range and speed. It plays the Cover 2 scheme to perfection and is a great attacking unit. The scary thing about the Bears' defense is that it is young, with no starters over 29, so it should be good for years to come.
This is a very confident group of players and coaches who expect to win with a strong run game and defense. The Bears might not be flashy, but they know what it takes to win games.
Minnesota Vikings
This was a good football team a year ago that seemed to lack discipline. New head coach Brad Childress will establish an environment of mental toughness and stress cutting down on the mistakes that haunted the Vikings in 2005. They were horrible on third down on both sides of the ball, finishing 30th in offensive conversions and 31st in defensive efficiency on third downs. That led to marginal time of possession and forced a good defense to be on the field too much.
In 2006, Minnesota will run a West Coast offense that is run-oriented with Childress calling the plays out of two-back sets. Defensively, coordinator Mike Tomlin will bring the Cover 2 defense from Tampa Bay. Both schemes appear to fit the Vikings' personnel very well. A big key will be quarterback Brad Johnson. If a revamped offensive line, led by All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson from Seattle, can protect him, this can be a versatile, but safe offense capable of ball control.
Chester Taylor
Running back
Minnesota Vikings
Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Att Yds Avg Long TD
117 487 4.2 52 0
Former Ravens running back Chester Taylor finally gets a chance to start, but he's never had over 160 carries in any NFL campaign. This will be a physical and efficient offense designed to chew up the clock and operate with improved discipline from a year ago.
The defensive personnel is better than the production they showed in 2005. The Vikings have an excellent defensive line rotation, led by mammoth tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, and have a rock solid secondary, led by free safety Darren Sharper and cornerback Antoine Winfield. There is some work to do at linebacker, but this unit has depth and good speed. The Vikings will concentrate on getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks (only 34 sacks in 2005) and concentrate on not giving up big plays and having coverage breakdowns (22nd in pass defense in 2005).
Minnesota was the most aggressive organization in the NFL this offseason. They had $31.5 million in salary-cap room with which to work, and owner Zygi Wilf let them spend it all on 10 quality free agents. In addition to the new players, Childress has the largest coaching staff in the NFL, with 21 assistants. The organization believes that the 9-7 team from a year ago badly underachieved and anything less than a solid playoff run will be a disappointment.
Detroit Lions
Under Marinelli, things will be different than they were under Steve Mariucci. Marinelli is a strong disciplinarian who will demand dedication and toughness from his players. If they don't conform to his system, they will be gone. This is a roster with good, but underachieving talent -- especially on offense. So how do they fix an offense that was ranked 26th in passing, 26th in rushing and 27th in first downs and one that produced only 29 touchdowns in 2006?
Enter ex-St. Louis head coach Mike Martz, who will run a much more balanced and complicated offense. He will install a sophisticated passing game, featuring a lot of deep crossing routes by his wide receivers, with backs and tight ends utilizing underneath dump-offs and safety-valve passes. He also will utilize a run game with a lot of draws and isolation plays by running back Kevin Jones -- usually against soft nickel and dime defenses.
The offensive line is not pretty, but it is made up of tough, blue collar guys who will get the job done. Success on offense will come down to which quarterback, Jon Kitna and Josh McCown, can run this offense without a lot of mistakes and whether an underachieving receiving corps of Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams can handle the intricate route-running demands of Martz's offense.
Defensively, new coordinator Donnie Henderson is a vocal guy who demands speed and toughness from his players. Detroit will employ the Cover 2 with an emphasis on eliminating mistakes and the big plays that plagued it a year ago. The linebackers are fast and active, but the secondary is just average and needs the benefit of a solid pass rush for protection.
This is a better roster than a lot of people realize, but the Lions have not played with any sense of urgency. To establish an improved atmosphere the Lions signed 15 free agents this offseason, and most of them are journeyman-type players with average skills but great work habits and attention to detail. Marinelli is counting on this influx of his kind of guys to improve the practice habits and competitiveness of his talented, young underachievers.
The philosophy for Detroit in 2006 will be to play sound on both sides of the ball, along with being more physical. Expect continued turnover in personnel by Marinelli and his staff as they try to put together the right group of players to carry out the plan. Detroit might not be a playoff contender in 2006, but it won't be the soft pushover it has been in the past.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers enter the 2006 season with the weakest personnel in the division, a new and untested head coach, and a future Hall of Fame quarterback who is coming off the most uneven season of his career. If you are a Green Bay fan you have to look long and hard for positive signs.
It all starts with Brett Favre, who returns for his 16th season. Despite his flaws, he still is one of the most exciting players in the league. He still can make all the throws and his leadership and competitiveness are legendary -- but he must cut down on his mistakes. In 2005, he threw an amazing 29 interceptions against 20 touchdowns and the Packers' offense also lost 15 fumbles. A lot of the offensive problems were due to a rash of key injuries and a glaring lack of playmakers.
The problem for this organization is that it did virtually nothing in free agency to add talent. However, to be fair, the front office did a nice job of re-signing some of its own key players, including backs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. To cut down on mistakes and also get more production from a 30th-ranked rushing offense in 2005, new coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is installing a new zone-blocking scheme and the players really seem to be buying into it.
The key for success offensively will be for new head coach Mike McCarthy to simplify the offense and make easier reads for Favre. The Packers' offense will feature a lot of slants and crossing routes with fewer vertical throws.
Defensively, the Packers played better than their talent level a year ago under coordinator Jim Bates. With virtually no stars on defense, Green Bay finished seventh in total defense and led the league in passing yards allowed per game. Bates is gone, but the Packers will retain his aggressive defensive schemes that feature a variety of blitzes and a lot of press coverages.
The front office did a good job of upgrading talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers added free agents Charles Woodson (defensive back), Ben Leber (linebacker) and Ryan Pickett (defensive tackle). They also selected playmaking linebacker A.JHawk in the first round of the draft. This will be a faster and more active defense with better coverage skills than a year ago.
Coaching will be a big key to the success of this team in 2006. McCarthy has never been in this role before -- on any level -- and both coordinators, Jagodzinski and Bob Sanders, have never been in that role on the NFL level.
However, before Packers fans give up on the 2006 season, we should remember that this team lost eight games in 2005 by seven points or less. If Green Bay can cut down on turnovers, some of those narrow losses could turn into wins. With Favre, anything is possible.
Gary Horton has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm called "The War Room."
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