Week 4 Power Rankings

[pbmax]

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.

	TEAM	TOTAL	LAST	TOTAL	RANK	W-L	OFF	OFF	 DEF	  DEF		ST	 ST
			 VOA	  WEEK	DAVE					  VOA	RANK	VOA	  RANK	DVOA	RANK
1	BAL	73.5%	2		24.2%	5		2-0	10.9%	13	-64.3%	1	  -1.8%	23
2	NYG	52.7%	1		27.1%	3		3-0	35.2%	2	 -12.9%	6	  4.6%	  7
3	PHI	45.4%	8		38.8%	1		2-1	21.4%	7	 -20.6%	5	  3.4%	 10
4	TEN	44.2%	11	  18.5%	7		3-0	4.5%	 15	-48.5%	2	  -8.7%	31
5	BUF	35.8%	3		8.1%	 14	  3-0	11.9%	11	-21.2%	4	  2.7%	 14
6	ATL	35.0%	17	  -6.6%	23	  2-1	22.1%	6	 -8.3%	 10	 4.6%	 8
7	DAL	31.4%	4		20.5%	6		3-0	31.4%	4	 3.0%	  17	 3.0%	 11
8	GB	 29.9%	6		33.6%	2		2-1	18.9%	8	 -4.4%	 13	 6.6%	 4
9	SD	 23.3%	13	  25.0%	4		1-2	35.1%	3	 14.2%	 23	 2.5%	 15
10	PIT  20.0%	5		12.6%	10	  2-1	-7.0%	25	-24.2%	3	  2.8%	 13
11	SF	20.0%	21	  -6.3%	22	  2-1	7.8%	 14	-12.5%	7	  -0.2%	19
12	DEN  16.5%	12	  9.0%	 13	  3-0	45.0%	1	 22.1%	 26	 -6.4%	28
13	TB	14.4%	10	  17.4%	8		2-1	1.9%	 18	-11.2%	9	  1.3%	 17
14	ARI  13.9%	7		5.5%	 15	  2-1	15.7%	10	0.9%	  15	 -0.9%	21
15	CHI  12.6%	14	  4.5%	 16	  1-2	1.4%	 19	-7.1%	 11	 4.1%	  9
16	WAS  12.5%	15	  0.5%	 18	  2-1	24.4%	5	 2.9%	  16	 -8.9%	32

[pbmax]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer.

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

[hoosier]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer.

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.

[pbmax]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.

If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down.

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

[KYPack]

Hey, c'mon, its the Power Rankings thread! Don't be scared to post them just because we lost a game! We're still better than the Bears and the Vikings and the NFC might finally reverse the AFC trend this year!

Stand up, be proud, take the shot that it is to read that your team has dropped below Arizona because every media member is hoping their annual prediction of a Phoenix Cardinals renaissance is finally going to happen.

So go to the sites, make a rambling statement of support for the Packers and tell everyone we don't get no respect. Go forth and conquer.

Then post the results here because the Football Outsiders are lonely.

I like the Football Outsiders, but a lot of their stuff sails over my head, like DAVE and VOA.

As far as the AFC, how the mighy have fallen. There are now six teams in the AFC with more than one win. The big AFC 3, SD, Indy, & NE are in the toilet right now. Those 3 will bounce back, but they are not the dominant favorites to the SB anymore. The strong teams in the AFC are Tenn & the Ravens. Both were .500 teams (or less) in most pre-season polls.

The joy in all of this is that NE and Billy B have an uphill struggle this season. I have really built up some Patriot hate over the years. They will probably bounce back this season, but that team is old and it will take 'em a long time to reload when they do crash.

[hoosier]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.

If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down.

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

Nah, I was just giving you a hard time. But let's do a simple experiment comparing power rankings with intuition. My intuition says the ten teams playing the best football right now are: Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, NYG, Tenn, GB, Buffalo, Denver, Tampa, Washington.

[pbmax]

Yeah but according to this we're lagging behind the Atlanta Falcons. That means one of two things: either the Packers season is toast or the total VOA doesn't mean dick.

If you want power rankings that make sense, then you want the pipe dreams thread two pages down.

VOA should be good for the Falcons because they have performed well if you ignore their competition. After Week 4, the opponent adjustments for defense go in and you might see the Falcons drop a bit. Packer might too, since one of their wins was against the Lions as well.

But an even better solution, find a power ranking that makes sense to you and post it.

Nah, I was just giving you a hard time. But let's do a simple experiment comparing power rankings with intuition. My intuition says the ten teams playing the best football right now are: Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, NYG, Tenn, GB, Buffalo, Denver, Tampa, Washington.

Now just go get yourself a blog, post the list and link to it from here. And you will be in business.

[CaliforniaCheez]

The Packers current Strength of Schedule is .444 which is in the Bell curve of the NFC and the NFL. 16 teams in the NFL have tougher SOS' and 8 in the NFC. 7 in the NFC are the same or worse and 8 in the AFC are the same or worse.

The Packers Strength of Victory is among the lowest in the NFL for teams that have won a game. (one win between the Lions and viklings).

It can look bleak if you are thinking they can be .500 and .500 in the conference after Sunday.

Being three and one, 3-1 in the confernece, increasing the Strength of Victory and probably the Strength of Schedule will be a nice boost.



The season is again at a crossroad. If the Packers can win the next 3 against Conference opponents Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Seattle, they will be in good shape in the conference and division.

Hope for the best.

[SnakeLH2006]

What's even more amazing then ATL being higher rated than GB is the consistency of Baltimore's D over the past 8 years. FA losses year after year, yet they seem to ALWAYS have the top statistical D. If they could just put some O together maybe they'd make the playoffs again. Oops...they are SB contenders as the #1 team on here. My bad.

[channtheman]

The one thing that sucks about the Packers losing is that I can never bring myself to look at pretty much anything NFL related such as Power Rankings for the whole week. I can't wait for them to come out when we win but when we lose this is the only message board I visit that is Packer related.

[SnakeLH2006]

The one thing that sucks about the Packers losing is that I can never bring myself to look at pretty much anything NFL related such as Power Rankings for the whole week. I can't wait for them to come out when we win but when we lose this is the only message board I visit that is Packer related.

Hmmm? This is a miserable unposted board when GB loses (myself included)...

This board goes nuts with 50 current topics a day when we are winning but maybe 8 threads a day when we lose. Look at the posts since the Dallas loss vs. other threads. Huh?

[texaspackerbacker]

Re: Week 4 Power Rankings

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.

	TEAM	TOTAL	LAST	TOTAL	RANK	W-L	OFF	OFF	 DEF	  DEF		ST	 ST
			 VOA	  WEEK	DAVE					  VOA	RANK	VOA	  RANK	DVOA	RANK
1	BAL	73.5%	2		24.2%	5		2-0	10.9%	13	-64.3%	1	  -1.8%	23
2	NYG	52.7%	1		27.1%	3		3-0	35.2%	2	 -12.9%	6	  4.6%	  7
3	PHI	45.4%	8		38.8%	1		2-1	21.4%	7	 -20.6%	5	  3.4%	 10
4	TEN	44.2%	11	  18.5%	7		3-0	4.5%	 15	-48.5%	2	  -8.7%	31
5	BUF	35.8%	3		8.1%	 14	  3-0	11.9%	11	-21.2%	4	  2.7%	 14
6	ATL	35.0%	17	  -6.6%	23	  2-1	22.1%	6	 -8.3%	 10	 4.6%	 8
7	DAL	31.4%	4		20.5%	6		3-0	31.4%	4	 3.0%	  17	 3.0%	 11
8	GB	 29.9%	6		33.6%	2		2-1	18.9%	8	 -4.4%	 13	 6.6%	 4
9	SD	 23.3%	13	  25.0%	4		1-2	35.1%	3	 14.2%	 23	 2.5%	 15
10	PIT  20.0%	5		12.6%	10	  2-1	-7.0%	25	-24.2%	3	  2.8%	 13
11	SF	20.0%	21	  -6.3%	22	  2-1	7.8%	 14	-12.5%	7	  -0.2%	19
12	DEN  16.5%	12	  9.0%	 13	  3-0	45.0%	1	 22.1%	 26	 -6.4%	28
13	TB	14.4%	10	  17.4%	8		2-1	1.9%	 18	-11.2%	9	  1.3%	 17
14	ARI  13.9%	7		5.5%	 15	  2-1	15.7%	10	0.9%	  15	 -0.9%	21
15	CHI  12.6%	14	  4.5%	 16	  1-2	1.4%	 19	-7.1%	 11	 4.1%	  9
16	WAS  12.5%	15	  0.5%	 18	  2-1	24.4%	5	 2.9%	  16	 -8.9%	32

What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.

[channtheman]

Re: Week 4 Power Rankings

The fine spreadsheets at Football Outsiders are not panicking about the Cowboy loss. Total VOA is the straight value over average for a category through week 3 with no adjustments for your opponent's defense. Total DAVE is the Power Ranking which is a combo of the VOA and the preseason prediction, the computer model of a top 25 poll.

	TEAM	TOTAL	LAST	TOTAL	RANK	W-L	OFF	OFF	 DEF	  DEF		ST	 ST
			 VOA	  WEEK	DAVE					  VOA	RANK	VOA	  RANK	DVOA	RANK
1	BAL	73.5%	2		24.2%	5		2-0	10.9%	13	-64.3%	1	  -1.8%	23
2	NYG	52.7%	1		27.1%	3		3-0	35.2%	2	 -12.9%	6	  4.6%	  7
3	PHI	45.4%	8		38.8%	1		2-1	21.4%	7	 -20.6%	5	  3.4%	 10
4	TEN	44.2%	11	  18.5%	7		3-0	4.5%	 15	-48.5%	2	  -8.7%	31
5	BUF	35.8%	3		8.1%	 14	  3-0	11.9%	11	-21.2%	4	  2.7%	 14
6	ATL	35.0%	17	  -6.6%	23	  2-1	22.1%	6	 -8.3%	 10	 4.6%	 8
7	DAL	31.4%	4		20.5%	6		3-0	31.4%	4	 3.0%	  17	 3.0%	 11
8	GB	 29.9%	6		33.6%	2		2-1	18.9%	8	 -4.4%	 13	 6.6%	 4
9	SD	 23.3%	13	  25.0%	4		1-2	35.1%	3	 14.2%	 23	 2.5%	 15
10	PIT  20.0%	5		12.6%	10	  2-1	-7.0%	25	-24.2%	3	  2.8%	 13
11	SF	20.0%	21	  -6.3%	22	  2-1	7.8%	 14	-12.5%	7	  -0.2%	19
12	DEN  16.5%	12	  9.0%	 13	  3-0	45.0%	1	 22.1%	 26	 -6.4%	28
13	TB	14.4%	10	  17.4%	8		2-1	1.9%	 18	-11.2%	9	  1.3%	 17
14	ARI  13.9%	7		5.5%	 15	  2-1	15.7%	10	0.9%	  15	 -0.9%	21
15	CHI  12.6%	14	  4.5%	 16	  1-2	1.4%	 19	-7.1%	 11	 4.1%	  9
16	WAS  12.5%	15	  0.5%	 18	  2-1	24.4%	5	 2.9%	  16	 -8.9%	32

What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.

Just be happy that the rankings don't hold any weight in the NFL and are just for fun. In college they really are total BS.

[pbmax]

Re: Week 4 Power Rankings

What a total load of crap!

This thing is just plain FLAWED!

If they want to knock the Packers down to 8 after a loss, fine--a bit extreme, but OK. But the Cowboys 7th? The Eagles AHEAD of the Cowboys? Baltimore #1? Atlanta #6?

Those things are just LUDICROUS.

Quit your complaining, explain why you think its flawed and put up your own rankings. Or copy somebody else's rankings.

My guess is the Packers aren't much higher than 8th anywhere, but your free to post what you find.

Remember, this list isn't adjusted for opponent's defense yet, that happens after Week 4 I believe.

[Tarlam!]

Re: Week 4 Power Rankings

Quit your complaining, explain why you think its flawed and put up your own rankings. Or copy somebody else's rankings. (...)

B O O M . That sat. I aint gonna say nothing against your rankings, dude!!