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Is it the O-line, the absence of #4, or is Grant "coasting" because he signed a fat, new contract? Whatever it is, they need to fix it now. I admit I'm suprised at the play of Orton, who really doesn't have any stars to throw to in Chicago.
Pete Dougherty column: Scouts see flaws in Packers' run game
By Pete Dougherty • October 24, 2008
Aaron Rodgers has made a good first impression on the NFL.
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But there remain questions about whether his Green Bay Packers are complete enough on offense to prevail in what figures to be a close race in the NFC North Division.
Three NFC scouts who have studied the NFC North this year all pointed to the running game as the Packers’ greatest weakness after seven games in the 2008 season.
“Where I think they’re going to struggle as they go along is if they don’t start running the ball,” said a scout who predicted Chicago will win the division.
Of the three scouts, two were willing to predict the division — one for the Bears, one for the Packers.
With the Bears and Packers tied for the lead at 4-3, and Minnesota a game behind at 3-4, it’s looking like the winner could finish 9-7, maybe even 8-8. Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only three teams have won the NFC North (or NFC Central) title with nine wins or fewer: Tampa Bay at 9-7 in 1981, Minnesota at 9-7 in 1980, and Minnesota at 8-7-1 in 1978.
The Packers and Bears still have to play twice. The Bears and Vikings, and Packers and Vikings, each play once more.
In an overview of the Packers, the scouts agreed Rodgers is their best offensive player, though two of the three chose Chicago’s Kyle Orton as the best quarterback in the division over Rodgers.
Orton has been a major surprise in his fourth season and has elevated Chicago’s perennially undermanned offense into the No. 3 ranking in scoring and No. 13 in total yards. Orton’s passer rating (91.4 points) is lower than Rodgers’ (98.8 points), but his weapons aren’t in the class of Packers receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Chicago’s leading receiver is halfback Matt Forte (29 catches).
The scouts’ judgments could change by season’s end, but through seven games Orton has led the Bears to a 2-2 record on the road. In one of those losses, he threw what should have been a game-winning touchdown pass at Atlanta with 11 seconds left, only to watch the Bears botch a squib kick and then give up a 26-yard completion along the sidelines that stopped the clock with 1 second left. Atlanta then kicked a game-winning 48-yard field goal.
Orton also put up 34 of Chicago’s 48 points last week against Minnesota while running a no-huddle offense for the first time this year.
“The Chicago Bears with a quarterback is something we’re going to have to get used to,” one scout said. “I don’t think they’re all the way there yet … but the problem with Chicago is defense, so if the problem in Chicago is defense they should be OK.”
One of the scouts said his only concern with Rodgers was durability, which Rodgers has answered so far by starting all seven games, including the last three with a sore throwing shoulder.
“His ability to stay alive and make plays is his biggest strength,” one scout said. “His arm strength is a plus. And he’s got some guys who once they catch it can make things happen, which always helps.”
However, the scout who considered Orton the best quarterback in the division also cited the absence of Brett Favre as the biggest reason the Packers’ run game has underperformed. The Packers rank No. 22 in the NFL in rushing yards, No. 25 in average yards per rush, and halfback Ryan Grant is averaging 3.4 yards a carry, down significantly from 5.1 yards last year.
The other two scouts agreed to some degree that defenses’ fear of Favre caused them to slant game plans and more heavily to stopping him last year. However, one concluded the Packers’ record this year would be no better with Favre, and the other thought defenses will worry more about Rodgers as the season and his career go on.
Nevertheless, the first scout pointed to the run game as the Packers’ likely downfall this season, and when asked the difference from last year, he said: “It’s Favre. If you look at Grant in New York, he looks like the same Grant now. But of course you put Favre in there, everybody’s playing the pass. When you don’t have that then you go, ‘All right, no big deal.’ Not to say (Grant) is not a good runner, but you were respecting something else first.”
The third scout said declining run blocking by aging tackles Chad Clifton (he's 32) and Mark Tauscher (he's 31) and inconsistencies with interior blockers Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells were at least as responsible for the run game’s problems.
“I’ve been impressed with the way (Rodgers) has played and certainly like the added dimension of his mobility, something Brett didn’t have,” the scout said. “But just because it was Brett Favre, people always thought you have to defend the pass because this guy can throw it from anywhere at anytime to anybody. Just that concept of defending Brett Favre instead of defending a passing game, they were always conscious of that. You don’t know quite what you’re getting.
“Rodgers is more disciplined with the offense and will take his shots and certainly throws a nice deep ball. So he can hurt you. It’s just a matter of him developing a reputation — I don’t think it will be that of a gunslinger, but he’ll have a reputation before it’s all said and done of being a quality quarterback.”
All three scouts rated the Packers’ receiving corps as a major asset, along with Rodgers and linebackers Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, Brady Poppinga and Brandon Chillar.
They all questioned whether the run defense will hold up now that defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins is out for the season. The run defense already had been weakened after trading defensive tackle Corey Williams rather than risk making a major financial investment in him in the offseason, and watching Justin Harrell’s second season heading toward a washout — he’ll probably play in his first game next week after missing all offseason through now because of a back injury.
“I don’t think this is what they wanted at defensive tackle,” one of the scouts said. “Their main guy who gave them a shot in there is on IR, he gave them a plan B probably. They’re just hanging on on the inside, no question about it.”
The scout who didn’t pick a division winner expects Minnesota to make a run in the second half of the season because of its quality defensive personnel. He said both Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are having excellent seasons at defensive tackle, and that defensive end Jared Allen was worth his costly trade and new contract.
The Vikings also have the consensus best player in the division in halfback Adrian Peterson. However, they have a major problem at quarterback, where Tarvaris Jackson was benched because of his erratic arm, but where 37-year-old Gus Frerotte has taken a beating because he’s immobile and in major decline.
“I think at the end of the day, their defense has been good,” the scout said, later disagreeing emphatically that the Vikings might be better off going back to the 25-year-old Jackson. “No way. I don’t think the other guy (Jackson) can play. I think if they cut the other guy he’d be on the street. I don’t think anybody would touch him. He can’t throw the ball.”
The scout who picked the Bears to win the division said two factors swayed him: Orton’s solid play (10 touchdown passes, only four interceptions) plus a defense that played three games without its dominating defensive lineman, Tommie Harris, and three games without its best cornerback, Nathan Vashar. He also said Lance Briggs has surpassed Brian Urlacher as the team’s best linebacker and has been the best defensive player in the division.
“Before they’d always tie getting to the ball,” the scout said of Briggs and Urlacher. “Now he’s beating Urlacher to the ball.”
Pete Dougherty covers the Packers for the Press-Gazette
Pete Dougherty column: Scouts see flaws in Packers' run game
By Pete Dougherty • October 24, 2008
Aaron Rodgers has made a good first impression on the NFL.
Advertisement
But there remain questions about whether his Green Bay Packers are complete enough on offense to prevail in what figures to be a close race in the NFC North Division.
Three NFC scouts who have studied the NFC North this year all pointed to the running game as the Packers’ greatest weakness after seven games in the 2008 season.
“Where I think they’re going to struggle as they go along is if they don’t start running the ball,” said a scout who predicted Chicago will win the division.
Of the three scouts, two were willing to predict the division — one for the Bears, one for the Packers.
With the Bears and Packers tied for the lead at 4-3, and Minnesota a game behind at 3-4, it’s looking like the winner could finish 9-7, maybe even 8-8. Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only three teams have won the NFC North (or NFC Central) title with nine wins or fewer: Tampa Bay at 9-7 in 1981, Minnesota at 9-7 in 1980, and Minnesota at 8-7-1 in 1978.
The Packers and Bears still have to play twice. The Bears and Vikings, and Packers and Vikings, each play once more.
In an overview of the Packers, the scouts agreed Rodgers is their best offensive player, though two of the three chose Chicago’s Kyle Orton as the best quarterback in the division over Rodgers.
Orton has been a major surprise in his fourth season and has elevated Chicago’s perennially undermanned offense into the No. 3 ranking in scoring and No. 13 in total yards. Orton’s passer rating (91.4 points) is lower than Rodgers’ (98.8 points), but his weapons aren’t in the class of Packers receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Chicago’s leading receiver is halfback Matt Forte (29 catches).
The scouts’ judgments could change by season’s end, but through seven games Orton has led the Bears to a 2-2 record on the road. In one of those losses, he threw what should have been a game-winning touchdown pass at Atlanta with 11 seconds left, only to watch the Bears botch a squib kick and then give up a 26-yard completion along the sidelines that stopped the clock with 1 second left. Atlanta then kicked a game-winning 48-yard field goal.
Orton also put up 34 of Chicago’s 48 points last week against Minnesota while running a no-huddle offense for the first time this year.
“The Chicago Bears with a quarterback is something we’re going to have to get used to,” one scout said. “I don’t think they’re all the way there yet … but the problem with Chicago is defense, so if the problem in Chicago is defense they should be OK.”
One of the scouts said his only concern with Rodgers was durability, which Rodgers has answered so far by starting all seven games, including the last three with a sore throwing shoulder.
“His ability to stay alive and make plays is his biggest strength,” one scout said. “His arm strength is a plus. And he’s got some guys who once they catch it can make things happen, which always helps.”
However, the scout who considered Orton the best quarterback in the division also cited the absence of Brett Favre as the biggest reason the Packers’ run game has underperformed. The Packers rank No. 22 in the NFL in rushing yards, No. 25 in average yards per rush, and halfback Ryan Grant is averaging 3.4 yards a carry, down significantly from 5.1 yards last year.
The other two scouts agreed to some degree that defenses’ fear of Favre caused them to slant game plans and more heavily to stopping him last year. However, one concluded the Packers’ record this year would be no better with Favre, and the other thought defenses will worry more about Rodgers as the season and his career go on.
Nevertheless, the first scout pointed to the run game as the Packers’ likely downfall this season, and when asked the difference from last year, he said: “It’s Favre. If you look at Grant in New York, he looks like the same Grant now. But of course you put Favre in there, everybody’s playing the pass. When you don’t have that then you go, ‘All right, no big deal.’ Not to say (Grant) is not a good runner, but you were respecting something else first.”
The third scout said declining run blocking by aging tackles Chad Clifton (he's 32) and Mark Tauscher (he's 31) and inconsistencies with interior blockers Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells were at least as responsible for the run game’s problems.
“I’ve been impressed with the way (Rodgers) has played and certainly like the added dimension of his mobility, something Brett didn’t have,” the scout said. “But just because it was Brett Favre, people always thought you have to defend the pass because this guy can throw it from anywhere at anytime to anybody. Just that concept of defending Brett Favre instead of defending a passing game, they were always conscious of that. You don’t know quite what you’re getting.
“Rodgers is more disciplined with the offense and will take his shots and certainly throws a nice deep ball. So he can hurt you. It’s just a matter of him developing a reputation — I don’t think it will be that of a gunslinger, but he’ll have a reputation before it’s all said and done of being a quality quarterback.”
All three scouts rated the Packers’ receiving corps as a major asset, along with Rodgers and linebackers Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, Brady Poppinga and Brandon Chillar.
They all questioned whether the run defense will hold up now that defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins is out for the season. The run defense already had been weakened after trading defensive tackle Corey Williams rather than risk making a major financial investment in him in the offseason, and watching Justin Harrell’s second season heading toward a washout — he’ll probably play in his first game next week after missing all offseason through now because of a back injury.
“I don’t think this is what they wanted at defensive tackle,” one of the scouts said. “Their main guy who gave them a shot in there is on IR, he gave them a plan B probably. They’re just hanging on on the inside, no question about it.”
The scout who didn’t pick a division winner expects Minnesota to make a run in the second half of the season because of its quality defensive personnel. He said both Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are having excellent seasons at defensive tackle, and that defensive end Jared Allen was worth his costly trade and new contract.
The Vikings also have the consensus best player in the division in halfback Adrian Peterson. However, they have a major problem at quarterback, where Tarvaris Jackson was benched because of his erratic arm, but where 37-year-old Gus Frerotte has taken a beating because he’s immobile and in major decline.
“I think at the end of the day, their defense has been good,” the scout said, later disagreeing emphatically that the Vikings might be better off going back to the 25-year-old Jackson. “No way. I don’t think the other guy (Jackson) can play. I think if they cut the other guy he’d be on the street. I don’t think anybody would touch him. He can’t throw the ball.”
The scout who picked the Bears to win the division said two factors swayed him: Orton’s solid play (10 touchdown passes, only four interceptions) plus a defense that played three games without its dominating defensive lineman, Tommie Harris, and three games without its best cornerback, Nathan Vashar. He also said Lance Briggs has surpassed Brian Urlacher as the team’s best linebacker and has been the best defensive player in the division.
“Before they’d always tie getting to the ball,” the scout said of Briggs and Urlacher. “Now he’s beating Urlacher to the ball.”
Pete Dougherty covers the Packers for the Press-Gazette
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