I have the #1 pick in fantasy football, who do I pick?

[MadtownPacker]

Tomlinson and Alexander are a sure bet to be among top 5 scorers, but may not have as much potential for a monster season as Johnson.

Thats all you need to know. You wanna play to win? Get LJ. His team is mostly the same if not better and at the end of last season nothing could be done to stop them from running the ball. LJ is in his prime and his time now.

[PackerPro42]

That is a great point. LJ has the most potential out of anyone and I think I would take him.

[BallHawk]

LT, has proved he can go a whole season and produce great numbers. Larry Johnson has not.

[the_idle_threat]

I vote for Larry Johnson. Regarding who is in the next tier, don't overlook Ronnie Brown. He gained 900 yards with 4.4 ypc last year, and this year he won't be splitting carries with Rasta Williams.

[Bossman641]

didn't he blow out a couple of knees?

James had a knee injury in 2001. The next year he came back and averaged well below his career numbers. Since then he has returned to form. I think he'll have a good year with the weapons the Cards have, but I'd never take him #1.

[Bretsky]

That is a great point. LJ has the most potential out of anyone and I think I would take him.

Been wrestling with this; I'd still go

LT
LJ
Alexander

and then Edge and Payton one way or the other.

[SD GB fan]

LT baby! the dudes been producing like crazy ever since he got into this league. its a shame that the best talent at RB has to grind out 1500 yards every year due to average linemen while the other AFC west teams (cept the raiders who always suck) simply plug in any RB behind their awesome o-lines for 1000 yards. dont worry about opposing defenses stacking 8 to stop LT..its been done for most of the past 5 years anyways. Denver's RBs are too unpredictable and inconsistent. LJ was good last year but their dominant line is aging. Hell, LT will throw TDs too if rivers doesnt work out

watching LT at RB is like favre at QB, without the int of course. im glad i lived in wisconsin and now in san diego.

[MJZiggy]

Did you pick it yet? Who did you go with?

[The Leaper]

My only hesitance with LT is that defenses will be focusing more on him and making Rivers beat them.

Defenses have been focusing on LT for years...and haven't stopped him yet. He WAS the San Diego offense his first 3 years in the league...before Brees and Gates established themselves.

If you are hesitant about LT...you should be twice as hesitant about Larry Johnson in that regard.

[BlueBrewer]

Did you pick it yet? Who did you go with?

We don't draft until late August, I just thought it would make for good conversation until training camp.

[The Leaper]

He had 1300+ yards rushing (1600+ total yards) and 17 TDs in his last 9 games.

So you are saying Johnson is a lock for 2500 yards rushing then? Sorry, I don't see it. Teams didn't give Johnson the same respect they gave Holmes...and it cost them. They won't make that mistake again.

[HarveyWallbangers]

No, I'm not saying that. He can do worse than he did last year (per game) and still do better than LT (when he had a QB, so teams couldn't completely stack against the run) or Alexander (in a contract year).

Want to know why Johnson will be mint? Waters, Shields, Roaf, and Wiegmann. It's a unit that is as good or better than the 2004 Packers OL. Alexander lost one of his two best OL and Tomlinson's OL is average.

[Partial]

I would agree with Harv to an extent. You cannot argue teams underestimated him. When you put up 107, 135, and then 211 yards in three weeks teams take notice and game plan for you. He had a great offensive line and they just kept feeding him the ball. I always thought he'd be a solid back, but never have a season like he did last year.

[BlueBrewer]

Ok unless something drastic happens before the start of the season I am going to draft Larry Johnson.









or LT

[gureski]

No, I'm not saying that. He can do worse than he did last year (per game) and still do better than LT (when he had a QB, so teams couldn't completely stack against the run) or Alexander (in a contract year).

Want to know why Johnson will be mint? Waters, Shields, Roaf, and Wiegmann. It's a unit that is as good or better than the 2004 Packers OL. Alexander lost one of his two best OL and Tomlinson's OL is average.

I've researched this subject and the fact is that Johnson and the K.C. line are produtcs of Vermeil's offense and hype. There is great reason for concern regarding Johnson and the Chiefs offense but you're not hearing anything about it because it doesn't jive with the pre-determined notion that Johnson is gold this year.

The facts show that prior to D.Vermeil showing up on the scene in K.C., it had been 10 years since the Chiefs had fielded a 1,000 yard rusher. Vermeil took most of the same offensive linemen and bumped an unknown ball-carrier named P.Holmes to over 1,500 yards in Vermeil's first season with the team.

Vermeil's offense set records in S.L. and again in K.C., specifically with regards to the guy carrying the ball. K.C. never had a defense during Vermeil's tenure either thus causing the Chiefs to often attempt to 'outscore' teams in order to win. All that is gone now.

The bottom line is that Vermeil and his offense made the K.C. line. Vermeil and his offense made the RB position in K.C. worth its weight in gold to FF owners. Replace the offensive minded coach (Dick Vermeil) with a defensive minded coach (Herm Edwards) and there is no way that Johnson will receive the same opportunities on offense this year. Playcalling from a head coach that wants to outscore opponents is way different then the playcalling from a guy who believes that you win with defense. It's naive to think that Herm Edwards will suddenly change his philosophy from a staunch defensive one to an offensive.

With regards to Seattle, it's one lineman on a team that is in the midst of its Superbowl window! One lineman will not slow Alexander and the high powered Seahawk offense. That's spin to invoke this as a reason to place Johnson over Alexander. The entire Seattle Offense is in-tact except for one guard and they've brought in N.Burleson to add to the passing attack.

In S.D., Tomlinson is about to play with a young but capable QB. Most offensive coordinators tend to call more running plays with young QB's AND young QB's tend to dump off more balls to RB's and TE's in their early years. Tomlinson could be in for a career year.

And back to Johnson....I'll give Packer fans a real life example of why you should be concerned about Herm Edwards defensive philosophy and how it could interfere with Johnson's stats this year.

Remember Ray Rhodes in 1999? Remember the Carolina game? He wouldn't call the time out and give the offense a chance to win the game. That's what defensive minded coaches do. They believe defense wins games and it shows in way they coach and the plays they call and how they manage a game. The Packers offense stunk under Rhodes and he kept most of the same pieces together that were in place before him. He even had the same offensive coordinator!

Don't be fooled into thinking that Chief offense will just roll on... Packer fans have seen what happens when you take the author of a great offense away and replace him with a defensive minded coach. Trade the #1 to some sucker that's buying into the hype for Johnson. If you can move to 2 or 3 and get Alexander or Tomlinson then do it. If you go down to 4 even and take Portis then that's okay too.