I have the #1 pick in fantasy football, who do I pick?

[4and12to12and4]

Joey Harrington. Believe it or not, this is Harrington's breakout year. Look for a 66. 2% 4500 yds 45 tds 10 ints from Harrington, enroute to being name the NFL MVP. This is the year of the ONE.

Whatever your smoking, pass the pipe. 45 tds? That must've been sarcasm!!!!

[Partial]

No, I'm not saying that. He can do worse than he did last year (per game) and still do better than LT (when he had a QB, so teams couldn't completely stack against the run) or Alexander (in a contract year).

Want to know why Johnson will be mint? Waters, Shields, Roaf, and Wiegmann. It's a unit that is as good or better than the 2004 Packers OL. Alexander lost one of his two best OL and Tomlinson's OL is average.

I've researched this subject and the fact is that Johnson and the K.C. line are produtcs of Vermeil's offense and hype. There is great reason for concern regarding Johnson and the Chiefs offense but you're not hearing anything about it because it doesn't jive with the pre-determined notion that Johnson is gold this year.

The facts show that prior to D.Vermeil showing up on the scene in K.C., it had been 10 years since the Chiefs had fielded a 1,000 yard rusher. Vermeil took most of the same offensive linemen and bumped an unknown ball-carrier named P.Holmes to over 1,500 yards in Vermeil's first season with the team.

Vermeil's offense set records in S.L. and again in K.C., specifically with regards to the guy carrying the ball. K.C. never had a defense during Vermeil's tenure either thus causing the Chiefs to often attempt to 'outscore' teams in order to win. All that is gone now.

The bottom line is that Vermeil and his offense made the K.C. line. Vermeil and his offense made the RB position in K.C. worth its weight in gold to FF owners. Replace the offensive minded coach (Dick Vermeil) with a defensive minded coach (Herm Edwards) and there is no way that Johnson will receive the same opportunities on offense this year. Playcalling from a head coach that wants to outscore opponents is way different then the playcalling from a guy who believes that you win with defense. It's naive to think that Herm Edwards will suddenly change his philosophy from a staunch defensive one to an offensive.

With regards to Seattle, it's one lineman on a team that is in the midst of its Superbowl window! One lineman will not slow Alexander and the high powered Seahawk offense. That's spin to invoke this as a reason to place Johnson over Alexander. The entire Seattle Offense is in-tact except for one guard and they've brought in N.Burleson to add to the passing attack.

In S.D., Tomlinson is about to play with a young but capable QB. Most offensive coordinators tend to call more running plays with young QB's AND young QB's tend to dump off more balls to RB's and TE's in their early years. Tomlinson could be in for a career year.

And back to Johnson....I'll give Packer fans a real life example of why you should be concerned about Herm Edwards defensive philosophy and how it could interfere with Johnson's stats this year.

Remember Ray Rhodes in 1999? Remember the Carolina game? He wouldn't call the time out and give the offense a chance to win the game. That's what defensive minded coaches do. They believe defense wins games and it shows in way they coach and the plays they call and how they manage a game. The Packers offense stunk under Rhodes and he kept most of the same pieces together that were in place before him. He even had the same offensive coordinator!

Don't be fooled into thinking that Chief offense will just roll on... Packer fans have seen what happens when you take the author of a great offense away and replace him with a defensive minded coach. Trade the #1 to some sucker that's buying into the hype for Johnson. If you can move to 2 or 3 and get Alexander or Tomlinson then do it. If you go down to 4 even and take Portis then that's okay too.

One must remember that Curtis Martin had 1942 yards (with 1697 rushing) in 2004-2005 from scrimmage in Herm Edwards' offense. Every season except last (he was hurt) he rushed for over 1000 yards, averaging 1403 yards rushing for each season herm edwards was there (not including his injured 2005 campaign). Over Edwards' stint, Martin averaged 1700.25 yards from scrimmage each season. I would say thats pretty darn good for a back. I expect LJ can do better with his amazing offensive line.

[the_idle_threat]

This makes sense, as defensive-minded coaches tend to favor a strong running game. I'm sure Herm Edwards is overjoyed to have a great O-line and LJ at his disposal.

[pittstang5]

OH MY F'N GOD! You guys are killing me. I draft # 2 with a bunch of bobos and will probably be able to pick whoever I want. I'm still undecided - LT or LJ. I'm thinking LT just because he has produced each and every year. Although LJ could payoff big time. Maybe with the group I'm playing against, I might even be able to snag both...wouldn't that Rock!

[Zool]

Want to know why Johnson will be mint?

No what I want to know is, are you attempting to bring back "mint"? That would be bitchin and rad if I could start using mint again.

[the_idle_threat]

Tubular!

[The Leaper]

I agree with Gureski.

The inexperienced QB means Tomlinson is going to get more work, both in the flat in the passing game and in the red zone in the running game. Tomlinson is a blue chip performer who has missed one game in 5 years...and put up monster numbers every year. He was the lone option in San Diego for several years early in his career, and was never stopped.

Johnson is a great back behind a great OL...but the change in coaching philosophy WILL have an impact on Johnson's numbers. Curtis Martin had one huge year under Herm in 2004...but never did Martin put up huge TD numbers. Martin has averaged 9 total TDs a year from 2000-2004, which includes both of his best seasons in NY. Herm doesn't mind bringing in a fresh runner at the goal line to push it in if he has confidence in the guy. If Priest Holmes comes back in 2006, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Priest take a lot of goal line carries away from Johnson. Now, if Priest doesn't come back...then I think Johnson becomes more of a possibility as a #1 overall pick. Right now, that is all up in the air.

Thinking Johnson is automatically going to replicate what he did last year under a different coaching staff just seems like a stretch to me.

[BlueBrewer]

Now I am confused all over again, the number one pick is dangerous.

[SD GB fan]

no need for confusion my friend...

LT! LT! LT!

if u have ANY speed and enough muscle to take the pounding, u will be able to rush 1000 yards beyond KC's line. i dun think larry johnson is all that great, just lucky to be on a good offense. and remember LJ got benched some time last season, meaning that the team doesnt depend on him to win. LT will nvr see the bench unless he fumbles 3 times (which he wont) or SD is up by 30 pts. (in which pt, LT probably alrdy scored 2-3 TDs)

[gureski]

"One must remember that Curtis Martin had 1942 yards (with 1697 rushing) in 2004-2005 from scrimmage in Herm Edwards' offense. Every season except last (he was hurt) he rushed for over 1000 yards, averaging 1403 yards rushing for each season herm edwards was there (not including his injured 2005 campaign). Over Edwards' stint, Martin averaged 1700.25 yards from scrimmage each season. I would say thats pretty darn good for a back. I expect LJ can do better with his amazing offensive line."

end quote

First, let's put your information into context.

The season you quote happens to be the best year in the very very impressive career of Curtis Martin and it occurred with the most carries (371) that he had in his career. Using someone's career year to make your point is a somewhat deceptive way to get others to take your side.

Dick Vermeil took over the Chiefs in 2001 as did Herm Edwards take over the Jets in 2001.

Here are the year by year team offensive totals for the two respective teams:

2001
Jets 308 pts Chiefs 320

2002
Jets 359 Chiefs 467

2003
Jets 283 pts Chiefs 484

2004
Jets 333 Chiefs 483

2005
Jets 240 Chiefs 403

Dick Vermeil led teams, with less talent during the early years, consistantly outscored the Herm Edwards teams every single year. While Edwards had the established Pro-Bowler C.Martin in his backfield during Martin's prime, Vermeil had to create a star with P.Holmes.

Vermeil's offense's scored 400 plus points every year but one. Herm Edwards teams passed the 350 mark one season out of five.

What this establishes is that the Dick Vermeil teams scored way more points then Herm Edwards led teams. It's not even close.

But, you may say, this is about the RB. Yes, and let's compare the numbers for the RBs from 2001 through 2005.

2001
C.Martin 1,513 rush 10 TD 320 rec 0 TD
P.Holmes 1,555 rush 8 TD 614 Rec 2 TD

2002
C.Martin 1,094 rush 7 TD 362 rec 0 TD
P.Holmes 1,615 rush 21 TD 672 Rec 3 TD

2003
C.Martin 1,308 rush 2 TD 262 rec 0 TD
P.Holmes 1,420 rush 27 TD 690 rec 0 TD

2004
C.Martin 1,697 rush 12 TD 245 rec 2 TD
P.Holmes 892 rush 14 TD 187 rec 1 TD

2005
C.Martin 220 rush 5 TD 118 rec 0 TD
P.Holmes 451 rush 6 TD 197 rec 1 TD

Which RB situation would you rather have had during this 5 year stretch? 38 TD's for Martin and 80 for P.Holmes. That's twice as many RB TD's to the main ball carrier for the Vermeil led teams then the Edwards led teams. AND both RB's faced injuries and missed games during this tenure so it's not injuries as the reason. Vermeil is simply an offensive genius who set records in S.L. and in K.C.. He's an offensive coach who set out to outscore opponents on a weekly basis. Edwards is a defensive minded coach who runs the ball and sucks the clock down while winning with defense. Two opposite spectrums of the football universe are at work here. You cannot say that Edwards RB's are the same as Vermeil's RB's. It wont stand the test if you look at the numbers.

ON the offensive line. You continue to assert that the line is 'Great'. For those that wish to dig and research a bit you'll find that the Cheifs running game couldn't establish a stud ball-carrier from 1997 thru 2000 and that was with Shields on the line and Szott and it was under Marty Schottenheimer for 97-98 and then Gunther Cunningham in 99
and 2000. Dick Vermiel took that same line and added an unknown
ball-carrier in Priest Holmes and INSTANTLY made Holmes a house-hold
fantasy FF name. The first year Vermeil and his offense was on the scene
(2001) Holmes became the main ball carrier and rushed for 1,555 yards.

The leading rushers for the years prior to Vermeil coming aboard were as
follows:

2000 Tony Richardson 697 yards
1999 Donnell Bennett 627 yards
1998 Donnell Bennett 527 yards
1997 Greg Hill 550 yards

You have to go back to 1991 to find a Cheif RB who hit the 1,000 yard mark
(Okoye with 1,031 yards) and the Cheifs had Marcus Allen running the ball
for them for several of those seasons between 1991 and 2001!

The point here is that the impact that Vermeil had on the K.C. offense and
the running game was profound and is not being respected right now. Vermeil took most of the same O-linemen that were blocking in 97, 98, 99, and 2000 and got them to bounce P.Holmes up to 1,550 yards in his first season.

Who made who? Was the line that good or did Vermeil's offense make that
line? Stats seem to indicate that Vermeil's offense made the line that
everyone is pointing at as a sure-fire reason why Johnson is a no-brainer.

So, again....before you assert again that the line is the sure-fire reason why Johnson will be so good....ask yourself why they got the reputation they have as being so good? It was Dick Vermeil that made that line.


The debate isn't over whether or not Johnson will have a 'Good' season and it's not over whether or not Herm Edwards has been able to get a RB over 1,000 for the past several seasons. The debate is over whether or not Larry Johnson is going to be so good this year that he will be the #1 overall pick in FF. To look at last year and think that Johnson will pick right back up where he left off is naive. Too many changes have taken place for that to happen and beyond those 9 games last year, what had Johnson ever shown? 2 years ago he couldnt' beat out D.Blaylock in K.C.! Johnson is being hyped as the safe pick but in reality it's Tomlinson or Alexander that are the safe picks.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Vermeil had a good influence, but I think you overrate him a tad. He had great players in St. Louis and Kansas City.

I think his offense helped his QBs (Warner and Green) with the dink and dunk passing, but St. Louis had Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and guys like Orlando Pace on the OL. Kansas City had guys like Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Brian Waters, Will Shields, Willie Roaf, Larry Johnson.

You can credit Vermeil all you want, but in 2001 Kansas City acquired Trent Green and Priest Holmes and Brian Waters became a starting OG. They may have had something to do with their success. St. Louis (and the likes of Faulk, Bruce, Holt) didn't exactly fall apart offensively after he left.

[the_idle_threat]

I'll even grant that Dick Vermiel was a difference-maker. I do believe his ability to teach and inspire made a very big difference to his teams. But now that he's gone, I don't expect his former players to forget how to play offense at a high level. They've learned what they need to learn, and now all they have to do is go out and do it.

Now I don't expect LJ to pick up on his previous pace and put up over 2500 yards for a full season, but I think he will be among the league leaders in Yds and TDs. What more can you ask of a #1 pick?

Meanwhile, LT lost his QB, and Shaun Alexander lost one of his best blockers, so there are legitimate questions surrounding both. Fact is, there really is no consensus #1 pick this year.

[The Leaper]

Meanwhile, LT lost his QB, and Shaun Alexander lost one of his best blockers, so there are legitimate questions surrounding both. Fact is, there really is no consensus #1 pick this year.

LT didn't have ANYONE around him on offense when he first came to San Diego...and still put up monster numbers. I don't see how there is any question surrounding how he will do without Brees. Remember, when Tomlinson was on a team previously with an inexperienced young QB...he put up a 100 catch season. In a league that gives credit for receptions to a RB, that would make him untouchable. His receptions went down recently as Brees gained experience and was more confident downfield. You can expect LTs reception numbers to increase in 2006 as Rivers will take more checkdowns because of his inexperience.

There is no question in my mind regarding LT. If he is healthy for 15 or 16 games, he is going to put up 1800+ total yards and 16+ TDs. He has done it consistently for 5 years...with a constantly changing supporting cast, both talent poor and talent rich. Anyone who suggests there is a question about LT simply hasn't watched the guy perform during his career.

[Bretsky]

Now I am confused all over again, the number one pick is dangerous.

No need to be confused; draft LT

[Brandon494]

Def. would go with LT, you know Marty is going to be giving him the ball a lot this season esp. after losing Brees during the offseason.