I have the #1 pick in fantasy football, who do I pick?

[gureski]

"Vermeil had a good influence, but I think you overrate him a tad. He had great players in St. Louis and Kansas City.

I think his offense helped his QBs (Warner and Green) with the dink and dunk passing, but St. Louis had Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and guys like Orlando Pace on the OL. Kansas City had guys like Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Brian Waters, Will Shields, Willie Roaf, Larry Johnson.

You can credit Vermeil all you want, but in 2001 Kansas City acquired Trent Green and Priest Holmes and Brian Waters became a starting OG. They may have had something to do with their success. St. Louis (and the likes of Faulk, Bruce, Holt) didn't exactly fall apart offensively after he left"

end quote

How can you overrate a guy who took two different failing teams and built them into offensive juggernauts? Why is it you can quote names like Warner, Green, Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Pace, Holmes, Waters, and Johnson? Dick Vermeil and his offense, that's why.

None of those guys were real stars til Vermeil came along. It's not like P.Holmes showed up to K.C. as an established Pro-Bowl RB. Warner was a nobody and he had been through different camps and teams in the NFL with no success. Trent Green hadn't started more then half a season before coming to K.C.! Faulk was stagnating in Indianapolis before the trade to the Rams. He only took off with Vermeil. All these guys owe a great deal to Vermeil and his offense because it's that good. Those players became great under Vermeil. They didn't come to Vermeil the way they were when he left.

And a last point on this.....Dick Vermeil left Mike Martz, his main assistant and offensive coordinator, as the head coach in S.L.. Martz is an offensive minded coach. The main assistant in K.C. was Al Saunders and he's in Washington now. You've got the former offensive line coach of K.C. as their new offensive coordinator and you've got a defensive minded head coach taking over the decision making. This is no where near the transition from Vermeil to Martz in S.L..

[jack's smirking revenge]

LT2 is the way to go.

tyler

[Partial]

We cannot neglect the fact that with KC's offensive line, Priest routinely put up big numbers, including setting the single season rushing touchdown record at the time.

LaDainian (2001-2005)
Yards Touchdowns Average Total Yards Total TD
1236 10 3.6 1603 10
1683 14 4.5 2172 16
1645 13 5.3 2370 17
1335 17 3.9 1776 18
1462 18 4.3 1832 22

Priest (2001-2005)
Yards Touchdowns Average Total Yards Total TD
1555 08 4.8 2287 10
1615 21 5.2 2110 24
1420 27 4.4 1832 27
892 14 4.6 1079 15
451 06 3.8 0648 07

Martin (2001-2005)
Yards Touchdowns Average Total Yards Total TD
1513 10 4.5 1833 13
1094 07 4.2 1456 07
1308 02 4.0 1570 02
1697 12 4.6 1942 14
0735 05 3.3 0853 05


Well, consistently in terms of FF scoring it looks to me at a glance without doing that math that priest, behind the chiefs titan-sized offensive line would be the highest scorer. However, it is impossible to know if with the coaching change they will continue to have that success. Being a risk taker and realizing it's just a game, i'd probably take LJ. However, LT is looking like a good, safe choice as well.

[gureski]

I'll even grant that Dick Vermiel was a difference-maker. I do believe his ability to teach and inspire made a very big difference to his teams. But now that he's gone, I don't expect his former players to forget how to play offense at a high level. They've learned what they need to learn, and now all they have to do is go out and do it.

Now I don't expect LJ to pick up on his previous pace and put up over 2500 yards for a full season, but I think he will be among the league leaders in Yds and TDs. What more can you ask of a #1 pick?

Meanwhile, LT lost his QB, and Shaun Alexander lost one of his best blockers, so there are legitimate questions surrounding both. Fact is, there really is no consensus #1 pick this year.

(I'm just jawing with you here so don't take this in a negative way...we're just debating) Big of you to grant that a guy who set records with his offense in two seperate cities made a big difference. You have to give that point. It's indisputable. It happened. It's on record. It's factual and backed by statistics. That's the whole point. Larry Johnson did what he did last year within the confines of Dick Vermeil's offense and offensive minded coaching/game management.

You say you think the players know how to play that offense now so it doesn't matter if Vermeil is there or not. If that theory is true then explain how the Packers forgot how to play offense the way they had under Holmgren after Ray Rhodes took over? And Rhodes had the exact same offensive coordinator! K.C. doesn't have that! Not only did K.C. lose the author of the offense they're running, they also lost the offensive coordinator AND they replaced the guy making decisions with a defensive minded coach!

You can have the same players and plays but produce less if the plays called are different. Again, see G.B. in 1999 for a real life example.

It's funny you mention the 2,500 yards thing. In FF circles, that's exactly what people are saying about Johnson for this season. They ARE saying he will challenge 2,000 yards rushing and put up 30 TD's! He's being WAY over-hyped. If you look at the normal running year from a H.Edwards offense you'll see that his backs get roughly 300 to 320 carries and put up 1,250 to 1,400 yards rushing and 7 to 10 TD's per year. Because he's a defensive minded coach, you will see less offense out of his teams because his philosophy on winning is different than that of a guy like Vermeil or Martz who want to score opponents into submission. It's because of that philosophy that it's hard to picture Johnson coming close to his pace of last year and if he doesn't come close to his pace of last year then what's the reason to pick him ahead of established players like Tomlinson and Alexander as the first overall pick?

Tomlinson lost his QB but can you really say Brees is better then Rivers? Scouts felt Rivers had more talent then Brees. I think Rivers will do better then Brees did. And again, it's factual that young QB's tend to throw more short check-downs to RB's. With Tomlinson having already proven himself as a receiver out of the backfield, his reception stats and receiving yardage could go up as a result of Rivers at QB. That's a plus, not a negative.

On Alexander, it's one player on a Superbowl team. The Seahawks are in the middle of their Superbowl window. They have multiple players on offense that are in the prime of their career, Alexander included. They added N.Burleson to bolster the passing game. If the defense has to respect the passing game more then that will open up more lanes for the RB to run. One offensive guard change out of 11 offensive players is NOT going to derail Alexander. It's a stretch to think that the starting RB on a team that is favored by many to return to the Superbowl (at least is considered a serious Superbowl contender) isn't going to be a very lucrative guy to have on your fantasy team.

In the end, I wonder why you think Larry Johnson, with only 9 games under his belt, is less of a risk then two established stud RB's like Tomlinson and Alexander.

[jack's smirking revenge]

I always start my draft with RBs. That's what keeps me in the hunt until the end. With that in mind, the safest bets are the players that continually perform at the top. LT2 and Alexander have been crazygood the last couple of years. They're safe picks. LJ, while he's got potential to be amazing this year with a refocused role, is still a risk at the top of the draft. I don't disagree that he's probably going to have a great year, but you win fantasy competitions by minimizing risks. I go for production over potential--I learned that early on in my FF career. Production pays off; potential, while super sweet if it swings your way, is a gamble.

And, when there's money on the line, I'm going with the safest bets and with the players that have a track record of performance.

The better question is where to pick this year's offensive studs like Bush. Round 4 or 5?

tyler

[gureski]

We cannot neglect the fact that with KC's offensive line, Priest routinely put up big numbers, including setting the single season rushing touchdown record at the time.

Well, consistently in terms of FF scoring it looks to me at a glance without doing that math that priest, behind the chiefs titan-sized offensive line would be the highest scorer. However, it is impossible to know if with the coaching change they will continue to have that success. Being a risk taker and realizing it's just a game, i'd probably take LJ. However, LT is looking like a good, safe choice as well.

In order to assert your stance you have to ignore the fact that the offensive line in K.C. failed to put up even a single 1,000 yard rusher in 10 years before Dick Vermeil came to town! Vermeil took most of the same linemen that couldn't produce even a single 1,000 yard rusher for years and in one single season pushed an unknown ball-carrier named P.Holmes over 1,500 yards! That's in one season using the same pieces that were there!

How can you explain that, if not by giving credit to Vermeil and his offense? K.C. had some very good pro-bowl calibur players back in the 90's. They had Szott and Shields. They had Marcus Allen running the ball for several years. They had some talent. They had Schottenheimer as their coach for a while and yet they couldn't crack a single 1,000 yard rusher. Only Vermeil was able to develop a line that was able to produce big numbers and he did it OVERNIGHT! That tells you it was his scheme. When you take the same players that stink and make them good, you don't then trump the players....you trump the scheme.

I assert the K.C. offensive line is being overhyped as a result of the statistics the K.C. offense put up under Dick Vermeil. It happens. They're good but the only reason they put up the statistics they did was because of Vermeil's offensive mindest. If that same mindset isn't at the top, they will not produce anywhere near the stats that offense has produced over the past 4 years.

[Partial]

Their offensive line finally came together from good coaching, good players, etc. Roaf is a recent addition I know, and I don't really know anything else about the others short of will shields.

If money is on the line, take LT.
If its for fun, take LJ.

[gureski]

I always start my draft with RBs. That's what keeps me in the hunt until the end. With that in mind, the safest bets are the players that continually perform at the top. LT2 and Alexander have been crazygood the last couple of years. They're safe picks. LJ, while he's got potential to be amazing this year with a refocused role, is still a risk at the top of the draft. I don't disagree that he's probably going to have a great year, but you win fantasy competitions by minimizing risks. I go for production over potential--I learned that early on in my FF career. Production pays off; potential, while super sweet if it swings your way, is a gamble.

And, when there's money on the line, I'm going with the safest bets and with the players that have a track record of performance.

The better question is where to pick this year's offensive studs like Bush. Round 4 or 5?

tyler

Your point is well taken regarding the attention you should pay to the track record of a player when selecting high in a draft. This is exactly why my advice to the guy who started this thread is to try to trade the pick. If he can find some sucker who is buying into the hype on Johnson and move the pick and move down 1 or 2 spots and pick up an extra pick in other rounds or move in front of the other player in even numbered rounds then that's the best of both worlds.

Trade the pick, if you can. Try.

[jack's smirking revenge]

Their offensive line finally came together from good coaching, good players, etc. Roaf is a recent addition I know, and I don't really know anything else about the others short of will shields.

If money is on the line, take LT.
If its for fun, take LJ.

I've never been in a fantasy football league where it wasn't cutthroat competitive and chaotic until the end. Fantasy football is definitely fun, but its stressful. I never want to have a 4-10 year again like I did the first year I played. I was lucky to even win 4 games. I drafted poorly, took more risks than I should've and got hit heavily by the injury bug.

FF sucks when you're out of the race by midseason. It sucks when you're even out of the race for bragging rights. Thus, my perspective is always business when it comes to FF.

The benefit of someone taking LJ at the top of the draft is that players such as LT and Alexander and Peyton will drop. I am hopeful that the leagues I'm in this year have people that make risky moves with the first pick. I'll be able to swoop in and build a juggernaut.

tyler

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Fuck LT

Or LJ, bitches!!!

Ahman Green is the guy.

[PackerPro42]

Fuck liberal Ahman Green bithces.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The offensive coaches for Vermeil are now in Detroit and Washington. Since it's the system and not the players, we can expect Kevin Jones and Clinton Portis to be right at the top, I guess.

[SD GB fan]

i know ive been shouting LT LT LT all this time. but im gonna change my choice. go with ricky williams. he cant disappoint. he has "herbal supplements" to back him up.

[LEWCWA]

While a tough choice, the thing you guys are not talking about is the fact this league gives 1 point for receptions! While Johnson has a chance to have a 2000 yard season with 20 td's, LT is pretty much a lock for 1600 yards and 15 tds. The thing that gives LT the edge in this league is the fact that he could very well catch 100 passes for 1000 yards as well! While I think Johnson may have the edge in a league that doesn't give 1 pt. per reception, LT has way more upside in this league. 2000 yards=200, 20 tds=120. Say Johnson catches 40 passes for 320 yards=72 points total=392.
Now LT 1600 yards=160 15 tds=90, 65 catches for 650=130 total=380 Pretty much a wash, but I believe the upside is LT catching 90 passes for 900 yards which would have LT at 430pts and thats why you take LT!!

[chain_gang]

I'd have to take LT, He's still young enough, plus his line is younger. The Chief's line is aging. Roaf is 36, Shields is going on 35, Wiegmann is 33, the other two; Waters 29, and Welbourn 30. I know experience means something, but Roaf, Shields, and Wiegmann have been the main reason the backs have thrived in KC. Holmes, Johnson, even Blaylock for a year before he went to the Jets. I would just be worried that eventually one or two of these guys are going to start missing some game time soon. The depth behind them at guard and center seem to be young and inexperienced, and we all no how that can turn out.

If it was me I'd take LT, you know what your going to get, with LJ you could get a monster year, or age could take its toll on the O-line and he could be a big time bust this year @ #1 overall.