I have the #1 pick in fantasy football, who do I pick?

[HarveyWallbangers]

While a tough choice, the thing you guys are not talking about is the fact this league gives 1 point for receptions! While Johnson has a chance to have a 2000 yard season with 20 td's, LT is pretty much a lock for 1600 yards and 15 tds. The thing that gives LT the edge in this league is the fact that he could very well catch 100 passes for 1000 yards as well! While I think Johnson may have the edge in a league that doesn't give 1 pt. per reception, LT has way more upside in this league. 2000 yards=200, 20 tds=120. Say Johnson catches 40 passes for 320 yards=72 points total=392.
Now LT 1600 yards=160 15 tds=90, 65 catches for 650=130 total=380 Pretty much a wash, but I believe the upside is LT catching 90 passes for 900 yards which would have LT at 430pts and thats why you take LT!!

Valid points, and I was not aware of that, so it makes it a tossup. However, I'd hesitate to project LT getting close to 90 catches. Since his monstrous 2003 season, he has had 53 catches for 441 yards in 2004 and 51 catches for 370 yards in 2005. That is with Brees throwing him the pill. I don't see Rivers being as effective as Drew Brees throwing to his TEs or RBs. Brees was a master of the short passes. His arm strength is somewhat questionable and he didn't get it down the field as much. I have a feeling Rivers will be more inclined to look down the field--as a young QB often finds it difficult to checkdown to his third and fourth options.

[LEWCWA]

I had LT at 65 catches and LJ at 40 catches, probably a little high for both. at those #ers points are about the same. My point is LT has the ability to put together an 80-90 catch season, that imo gives him a little higher upside! I don't believe LJ has the ability to go much over 40 catches.

[BlueBrewer]

I think the best thing to do is wait until preseason and see what kind of offense Edwards is running and what kind of command Rivers has.

[gureski]

I think the best thing to do is wait until preseason and see what kind of offense Edwards is running and what kind of command Rivers has.

You wont see much in pre-season. For K.C., it's all in the playcalling on game day and they wont tip their hand in the pre-season.

The one thing you can assert without really going out on a limb is that H.Edwards wont coach with an 'Outscore them' mentality like Vermeil did. Edwards is more conservative in nature and that alone will affect the offensive outcome of the entire team. Edwards isn't going to embrace the idea of blitzing the scoreboard on offense and leaving his defense on the field for long amounts of time. It's just not who he is.

And Rivers can make the short throws. The fact he has the arm to throw deep is only more reason to think he will be successful underneath because going long opens up the defense. For Brees, teams knew he wasn't a long-ball QB. They could play closer to the line. For Rivers, they will have to respect his arm more and that will loosen up the coverage closer to the line of scrimmage. Loose coverage at the line and safeties backed up farther means a higher likelihood for the RB and TE to be open.

[gureski]

Valid points, and I was not aware of that, so it makes it a tossup. However, I'd hesitate to project LT getting close to 90 catches. Since his monstrous 2003 season, he has had 53 catches for 441 yards in 2004 and 51 catches for 370 yards in 2005. That is with Brees throwing him the pill. I don't see Rivers being as effective as Drew Brees throwing to his TEs or RBs. Brees was a master of the short passes. His arm strength is somewhat questionable and he didn't get it down the field as much. I have a feeling Rivers will be more inclined to look down the field--as a young QB often finds it difficult to checkdown to his third and fourth options.

You're fishing to say that Rivers will find it difficult to check down to his RB's and TE's.

It's rather well established that the two things young and inexperienced QB's all do is they rely too much on their legs and they throw lots of short drop offs to RB's and TE's. On most plays you'll see either the RB, FB, or TE stay close to the line and run the closest patters to the QB so if you're panicing and you have to get rid of the ball.....those are the prime guys to dump it off to. You don't have to think to throw to the guy closest to you. You're suddenlyl in trouble and they're the only option you have.

As a QB matures as a player (with playing time) they run less and work the middle of the field check-downs more. So, where-as a young QB may lock in on the #1 receiver on any given play and wait so long to check down that the heat is suddenly on and they have to skip over their 2nd and 3d read down to the dump pass to a RB....a mature QB reads the coverage better and moves off the #1 route to recognize the #2 WR faster and thus doesn't need the short dump offs to RB's and TE's.

So, in essance, I'm disputing your take that Rivers will have trouble checking down to the guys running routes closest to him (FB, RB, TE). Because he's a young QB there will be many times when the guys running routes closest to him will be the only read he has time to make. It's not a checkdown process....it's an outlet for his mistakes as he learns to read the defense.

[HarveyWallbangers]

My head hurts. I'll put a dollar on Johnson being better than Tomlinson in a standard scoring system (e.g. Yahoo default scoring system).

[gureski]

The offensive coaches for Vermeil are now in Detroit and Washington. Since it's the system and not the players, we can expect Kevin Jones and Clinton Portis to be right at the top, I guess.

Funny you should mention this....Portis seems to think that's the case...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=cr-portis063006&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

SHBURN, Va. – There were times when Clinton Portis spent his bruised and battered regular-season Mondays dying for days like this. He would bite his tongue, mutter curse words under his breath in meetings and then pray.

For what?

"A guy like Al Saunders," the running back said of the Washington Redskins' new offensive coordinator. "And an offense like this."

In fact, the first time Portis sat down and really went through some of the offensive film produced by Saunders – highlight clips featuring backs like Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and Larry Johnson – he cursed again.

"I remember saying this is the (expletive) I've been waiting for," Portis said.

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As far as Portis can see, what Saunders brings to Washington is like nothing he's ever seen. Four- and five-wide receiver sets. Snappy huddles. Adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Up-tempo management. And most importantly, spacious running lanes that would rival the tarmac at Washington Dulles International Airport. All of which – to Portis – provides hope for a career year.

Larry Johnson can have his 2,000-yard season in Kansas City. Portis could be making a run at the single-season record for rushing touchdowns.

"The last time I saw a field spread out like this was in Denver," Portis said. "We didn't spread it out around here. That wasn't our system. You had to adapt. You had to change your game to fit whatever they brought to you. Now I've got the golden opportunity. For two years, I had the opportunity of getting pounded. Pounded here and pounded there. But I found a way out of that and I have the opportunity of my career.

"You don't have to talk to those guys who have gone through him before. Just go look at the film. When Marshall Faulk was in his prime, coach Saunders was there. When Priest was in his prime, coach Saunders was there. If I'm in my prime, I'm in the right place."

Some will scoff at the idea of Portis making a run at 20-plus touchdowns, particularly in what might be the NFL's toughest division. But even the upgrades by the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles don't promise to improve run defenses that ranked from 12th to 21st last season. Portis is counting on Saunders and other offseason additions to make a difference, especially after seeing a diminutive Holmes – almost the exact size of Portis – develop into one of the most prolific scorers in league history with the Chiefs.

For a player who ran through a series of brick walls during his first season under Joe Gibbs, Portis has seen the Redskins' offense come a long way from the rudimentary power scheme he once labeled as "vanilla." Now the offense has arguably as many options as Saunders had when he helped the Rams win Super Bowl XXXIV – from the explosiveness of Santana Moss and the versatility of Antwaan Randle El to the possession capabilities of Brandon Lloyd, David Patten and Chris Cooley.

Barring another spate of injuries on the offensive line, or the loss of one of the principals (Portis, Moss or quarterback Mark Brunell), the unit should be diverse enough to avoid the sputtering it encountered in the playoffs last season.

"Looking around at Lloyd and Randle El and Patten – looking around at guys that should have spectacular years, along with Santana and Cooley – that's going to open [things] up a lot," Portis said. "You can't put eight people in the box. If you do, we're going to throw a bomb on you. You'll rather give me 20 or 30 [yards] than give them 80."

As Joe Gibbs put it more succinctly: "You need to be able to keep people off balance. That's what we'll be striving for."

Whether or not the offensive production clicks will depend on Brunell and the receivers.

Saunders' passing offense heavily favors timing – to the point where Brunell will be expected to make quicker drops in the pocket and release some of his passes before his target makes his final cut. Brunell broke a finger early in June and missed the team's final minicamp, so his repetitions in practice have been nonexistent over the last month.

"It will be fine. I've got some work to do – we all do with this scheme – but we have some time to get it together," Brunell said. "Actually, I'm really excited. We made a lot of moves in the offseason to try and get better, but I honestly think Al might have been the biggest of all of them.

"Everyone is working hard with his scheme. You can see it's paying off, too. Guys were starting to click and make plays out there [in minicamp], so you can see how it's going to open things up – especially for Clinton."

Portis said he expects to arrive in training camp between 210 and 212 pounds, shedding the weight he gained to sustain last year's pounding. Now he's styling a more cut physique to suit the quickness Saunders' offense requires. And Portis points out that he's just now entering the four-year window that should be the peak of his career.

"I've got to hit some home runs before people start writing me off and saying I can't do it anymore," he said. "I'm looking for a couple of 90-yarders this year.

"You look at my start in this league, and only Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James have had [an initial four seasons] like me. I look back, two years ago, I had 1,300 yards. People wrote me off like I was a bust. And the people that [the media] are hugging up on now haven't even had 1,300 yards. If 1,300 is my worst season, bro, I'm all for that."

And with the new scheme?

"Hopefully, the only thing that changes for me is by the third quarter I'll be sitting on the sideline with my hat turned to the back, waving to the cameras, talking about how this win is in the books and we'll see you next week."


Charles Robinson is the national NFL writer for Yahoo! Sports. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.

[woodbuck27]

I'd also consider this fella in the mix.

The Cardinals paid free-agent running back Edgerrin James big money and now they expect big numbers.

Arizona coach Dennis Green recently said it would be possible for James to gain numbers that the team never has seen before. "We'd love to get 1,600 yards from him this year, shatter every record we've ever had," Green said.

Should James pile up 1,606 yards, which Green thinks is a possibility, then the former Colts running back would set the Cardinals all-time single-season rushing record. The man who currently holds it is Ottis Anderson, who ran for 1,605 in 1979.

Note: woodbuck27

If you discount his 2001 season when he was injured and the 2002 season, due to 'the two year rule for RB's to fully recover fr. injury'- E. James has been impressive.

In those other five season's (1999 and 2000 and 2003-05) E. James has started 90 games. In those games he ran for a combined 7575 yards on 1760 carries or a 4.3 yard avg. and 1515 yards /season. He scored 59 TD's rushing and caught 271 pass's or 54 per season for another 10 TD's and 2292 yards.

So in those five season's Edgerrin James had a combined yard's of 9867 and 69 TD's (about 14 TD's per season).

As well, he will be the featured star player in Arizona. I expect him to have a great season, maybe just as payback to the Colts for not retaining him.

[jack's smirking revenge]

I'd also consider this fella in the mix.

The Cardinals paid free-agent running back Edgerrin James big money and now they expect big numbers.

Arizona coach Dennis Green recently said it would be possible for James to gain numbers that the team never has seen before. "We'd love to get 1,600 yards from him this year, shatter every record we've ever had," Green said.

Should James pile up 1,606 yards, which Green thinks is a possibility, then the former Colts running back would set the Cardinals all-time single-season rushing record. The man who currently holds it is Ottis Anderson, who ran for 1,605 in 1979.

Note: woodbuck27

If you discount his 2001 season when he was injured and the 2002 season, due to 'the two year rule for RB's to fully recover fr. injury'- E. James has been impressive.

In those other five season's (1999 and 2000 and 2003-05) E. James has started 90 games. In those games he ran for a combined 7575 yards on 1760 carries or a 4.3 yard avg. and 1515 yards /season. He scored 59 TD's rushing and caught 271 pass's or 54 per season for another 10 TD's and 2292 yards.

So in those five season's Edgerrin James had a combined yard's of 9867 and 69 TD's (about 14 TD's per season).

As well, he will be the featured star player in Arizona. I expect him to have a great season, maybe just as payback to the Colts for not retaining him.

Edge is a great back, but until there's proof that the Cards o-line has improved, he's a risk. I don't think he's the kind of back that can do it all by himself, especially with Warner or rookie Leinart leading the offense.

I don't think we'll get a good read on the Cards RB situation until some preseason games happen. He's probably in the top 10 in the NFL, especially with his new role, but there are lots of question marks.

tyler

[woodbuck27]

I'd also consider this fella in the mix.

The Cardinals paid free-agent running back Edgerrin James big money and now they expect big numbers.

Arizona coach Dennis Green recently said it would be possible for James to gain numbers that the team never has seen before. "We'd love to get 1,600 yards from him this year, shatter every record we've ever had," Green said.

Should James pile up 1,606 yards, which Green thinks is a possibility, then the former Colts running back would set the Cardinals all-time single-season rushing record. The man who currently holds it is Ottis Anderson, who ran for 1,605 in 1979.

Note: woodbuck27

If you discount his 2001 season when he was injured and the 2002 season, due to 'the two year rule for RB's to fully recover fr. injury'- E. James has been impressive.

In those other five season's (1999 and 2000 and 2003-05) E. James has started 90 games. In those games he ran for a combined 7575 yards on 1760 carries or a 4.3 yard avg. and 1515 yards /season. He scored 59 TD's rushing and caught 271 pass's or 54 per season for another 10 TD's and 2292 yards.

So in those five season's Edgerrin James had a combined yard's of 9867 and 69 TD's (about 14 TD's per season).

As well, he will be the featured star player in Arizona. I expect him to have a great season, maybe just as payback to the Colts for not retaining him.

Edge is a great back, but until there's proof that the Cards o-line has improved, he's a risk. I don't think he's the kind of back that can do it all by himself, especially with Warner or rookie Leinart leading the offense.

I don't think we'll get a good read on the Cards RB situation until some preseason games happen. He's probably in the top 10 in the NFL, especially with his new role, but there are lots of question marks.

tyler

The Arizona OL-Yup.

After I made that post, that was exactly my next thought tyler.

[LEWCWA]

I'm going defense in my league--N. Barnett!!!

[MJZiggy]

Not AJ, LEW?

[BlueBrewer]

Are you seriously in a defense league? I have never played in one , how does the scoring work, per tackle?

[Bretsky]

My head hurts. I'll put a dollar on Johnson being better than Tomlinson in a standard scoring system (e.g. Yahoo default scoring system).

Why don't you just send me your dollar

Actually a Dollar is about all I'd bet too; my logic for LT is he's the safer thing and if I'm picking one I'd stress that more and then grab the best RB in round two.

I saw a mock expert draft at CBS Sportsline.com last week. Their first 12 picks were RB's. Nuts. I figured even though he wasn't a stud last year as much, Payton Manning would still be picked in top 6-8 or so.

B

[BlueBrewer]

I can honestly say that you guys have swayed my opinion back and forth several times, I am really glad that i started this thread because there is some really intelligent insight on this forum that brought up a lot of points that I had not even considered, thanks everyone.