TENN vs GB B BLOG..ARE GAMES WON IN THE TRENCHES ???

[Bretsky]

I've been thinking of this game all week long to the point where I'm read to post my random blog.

Tennessee is game for a defeat. They are coming off of an emotional high beating the Indianapolis Colts, who they have not been able to handle in the past. Some are calling it a passing of torches. The Titans might start believing in this. They come off a hard fought win on a Monday night football game. Green Bay comes off of a bye week giving the coaches more time to game plan against the Titans and get the running game turned around.

If you recall last year our running game was different after the bye week with the coaches pledging to improve and make whatever necessary changes they need to for th better. They should have had a similar goal this week.

Teams never want to lose games; but if there is a game for Tennessee to choose to lose it would probably be this one. Green Bay is a non conference and non divisional game and Tennessee has built a nice lead within their division. The coaches could use this game as a wake up call.

Green Bay also appears to have the type of offense that might be able to mix things up well enough to keep the Titans defense somewhat off balance. At the so called "talent positions" I think Green Bay might be stronger.

Aaron Rodgers is a strong step up from Kerry Collins
The Packers WR's are a strong step up from the Titans WR's
The Titans TE's may get a slight edge but I'd call it even
The Titans RB's are a strong upgrade from Green Bay's
The Packer CB's are a strong upgrade from the Titans
The Titans Safeties(thanks to free agent signing Chris Hope) are better than Green Bay's

If you believe that Green Bay can win this game, you have faith that the Green Bay coaching staff can utilize the speed and talent positions and keep the Titans off balance. Because here comes the bad news.

IF you believe games are won in the trenches you will favor the Titans.

In fact, the data may lead you to believe we are walking into an asskickin and we won't want to "Remember the Titans"

Simply put, Tennessees OL is better than our DL and their DL is better than our OL

Tennessee ranks 4th in rushing offense (145 YPG) while Green Bay is 25th in rushing yards allowed (142YPG). So start your Titan Running Backs

Over the past four games, Chris Johnson has been dominant in compiling 4 TD's, 350 yards, and 4.8 yards per carry. And he's not even the goal line back. Lendale White has at least one TD in six of the last seven games and has 10 on the season. Over the past five games Green Bay has surrendered six TD's and the Titans have accumulated twelve. Their OL and rushing attack is nothing short of dominant while GB's rushing defense has been a glaring weakness. The numbers let us know tomorrow will be trouble.

On the flip side, I don't think I need to document Green Bay's struggles with the running game to anybody in here. At least Grant has scored his first TD and is averaging over 95 yards per game the past two. I'd argue about 25% of that is Grant and 75% of that is our OL is just poor; but regardless of the reason our weakenss falls into a strength for Tennessee. They are #10 in run defense allowing just over 90 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. They have only surrendered one 100 yard game all season and I'm not expecting another one tomorrow based on the facts above.

So in breaking down tomorrow's game, if you have the ability to throw your homerism out the window you have to choose to what theory you subscribe to with your prediction.

Are games won in the trenches, or will more of a finesse team orchestrate an effective game plan to limit the Titans overpowering OL and DL ?

Can Bob Sanders effectively bring up some safeties and use some occasional blitzes to contain the run, or will Vanilla Bob choose to play smash mouth defense with a OL that should be able to handle our DL.

Can Mike McCarthy effectivly use a mixture of playcalling to keep the Titans Defense off balance, keep Albert Haynesworth from walking all over Darryn College, and most important keep Aaron Rodgers healthy and in the game ?

Or will the Wist like theories hold true tomorrow in that the Packers are soft on both sides and they can't win the big one against a solid smash mouth team. We'll find out soon.


Feel free to post your thoughts


Cheers,
B

[pbmax]

The trenches are important, but even with their great O Line, the Tennessee Offense is pretty mediocre. They benefit from short fields and the dominating play of their defense. Being able to run means they are able to shorten the game in the second half, something the Packers have had trouble with. But unless our Run D reverts to the Cowboys game level, I think we can hold them in check.

The Packer's may be able to pass against the Tennessee defense. And B is right, the Packer's coaches, with an extra week, might be able to scheme a running game into existence like they did last year versus the Vikings at Lambeau and the vaunted Purple Diuretic Poppers ( just kidding Ras). But my expectation is that this will be a low scoring game.

Some things might blow this prediction. Both teams can create and score on turnovers and the Packers have an advantage on ST, esp. the return game. Face it, Kerry Collins is the opposing QB.

But what worries me most are the little things that have been killing us. Penalties on O, dropped passes, pressure to the QB despite extra blockers. Those things will cost you dearly in a low scoring game. If we avoid them and play clean, we have a very good shot.

[Partial]

Very good post. Best in a LONG time in this room. I sincerely appreciate a quality thread with good motives instead of all the riff-raft that's been all too common here lately.

I think the Packers have a sporting chance but they will need to spread the ball out. Having the big 5 would be really beneficial because it would neutralize the defensive strength of the Titans. A-Rod is good enough on a roll out that that package could cause serious damage while keeping guys like Haynesworth out of the play. Hopefully the week off will allow a slightly healthier Clifton to have one of his vintage big performances in big games.

Offensively, when they're not spreading it out, I see them running behind Spitz and Tausch. That way they're not only avoiding avoiding Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth, but they're running behind their two best run blockers, and to the side they prefer to run to anyway. They should put Lee on the line next to Tausch so they keep Bullock away from the right side of the field.

Justin Harrell could not have been activiated at a better time. Hopefully the return of him and Bigby, and a healthier Pickett will result in some better rushing defense.

In my opinion, we will win this game if we can stop the run. Offensively we are good enough to move the ball through the air by spreading them out. Defensively, I'm not concerned at all about their passing attack.

With Collins and the corners playing so well, I would consider moving Bigby into the box, ala the way Indy uses Bob Sanders. He is an absolute menace and his intensity and desire to knock somebody to the ground would really help against their running attack. Also, I would use a 4-4 package often as Indy showed to have some moderate success using it with inferior players and an inferior secondary.

Overall, to me this game is a coin flip. We match up surprisingly well with them. We will have success offensively if we spread them out. My gut tells me we win by 10.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Re: TENN vs GB B BLOG..ARE GAMES WON IN THE TRENCHES ???

Aaron Rodgers is a strong step up from Kerry Collins
The Packers WR's are a strong step up from the Titans WR's
The Titans TE's may get a slight edge but I'd call it even
The Titans RB's are a strong upgrade from Green Bay's
The Packer CB's are a strong upgrade from the Titans
The Titans Safeties(thanks to free agent signing Chris Hope) are better than Green Bay's

I'd agree up to CBs and safeties. The Titans corners are good. Finnegan is the most underrated corner in the NFL. Harper is having a good year. Green Bay gets the upgrade nod from me, but I wouldn't say strong upgrade.

Hope was great in 2006, but hasn't played at that level the last two years. Here's a valid quote from Scouts, Inc.: "Hope is a good starter, but really does not do anything that really stands out." I think their other starter, Michael Griffin, is better at this point.

Conversely, Nick Collins has taken his game to another level this year. If Bigby plays as well as he did at the end of last year, then I'd say this battle is pretty close. I'd give the nod to the Titans, but I wouldn't say strong upgrade.

[Zool]

Re: TENN vs GB B BLOG..ARE GAMES WON IN THE TRENCHES ???

Aaron Rodgers is a strong step up from Kerry Collins
The Packers WR's are a strong step up from the Titans WR's
The Titans TE's may get a slight edge but I'd call it even
The Titans RB's are a strong upgrade from Green Bay's
The Packer CB's are a strong upgrade from the Titans
The Titans Safeties(thanks to free agent signing Chris Hope) are better than Green Bay's

I'd agree up to CBs and safeties. The Titans corners are good. Finnegan is the most underrated corner in the NFL. Harper is having a good year. Green Bay gets the upgrade nod from me, but I wouldn't say strong upgrade.

Hope was great in 2006, but hasn't played at that level the last two years. Here's a valid quote from Scouts, Inc.: "Hope is a good starter, but really does not do anything that really stands out." I think their other starter, Michael Griffin, is better at this point.

Conversely, Nick Collins has taken his game to another level this year. If Bigby plays as well as he did at the end of last year, then I'd say this battle is pretty close. I'd give the nod to the Titans, but I wouldn't say strong upgrade.

What He ^ said. The Thumbtacks have a good secondary all the way around and their D line helps the secondary even more.

[The Shadow]

Spead em out. That largely negates the Titan defensive line advantage.
The offensive game plan should be to use the pass to finally open things up for the run.
Trust the corners to handle the less-than-stellar receivers.
Safeties up to watch the tight ends and stuff the running lanes.
Packers 24
Titans 13

[superfan]

Good post Bretsky, you are reviving the old "Optimist Realist" days.

Everything else being equal, winning in the trenches seems to be more successful than the finesse approach, and I expect Tennessee to win this game, but I like GB's chances.

The annual Titans-Packers preseason game was close, with Tennessee edging out a 23-21 victory. As is common for these preseason games, Coach Fisher elected to go with his starters into the third quarter, while Coach McCarthy pulled many of his starters after a series or two. So an assumption can be made that GB will be at least competitive. It usually isn't wise to put much stock into a preseason game, but it was a good sign that the GB second team could hang with the Tennessee starters. And, of course, a lot has changed since that game (i.e. no Vince Young, Cullen Jenkins).

Kind of odd, but I don't think it matters much who grabs the early lead in this game. Based on Tennessee's personnel, I would expect them to be tough when holding a lead and struggle when playing from behind (strong running game, weak QB and WRs). However, GB has enough offensive firepower with QB and WRs to air it out if needed, but hasn't shown they can lean on the running game to hold a lead.

I expect this game to be a tight battle, decided late in the 4th quarter in heartbreaking fashion for the losing team.

[SnakeLH2006]

Direct reply to topic B: Yes.

[RashanGary]

Great topic. I'm a beleiver in the trenches, so I think Tenn is the better team. That said, we're going to be rested and spirited and they are going to be tired after a short week. They're a young team so it shouldn't effect them like it might a team of geezers, but still short week vs bye week is about as big of disadvantage as you can get. We have a chance.


I wouldn't be suprised either way in this one. If we match their physicalness it will be because we're rested and ready. If not, they'll probably hurt us. I hope Rodgers makes it out of this one. Those Titan defenders are ruthless.

[Bretsky]

Thanks to any of positive comments. As I was reading the do we have a chance versus the Titans what I noticed was some who believe in the trenches determining the game are giving the Packers a very good shot.

In the big picture there are a few things I think about this matchup:

We won't run the ball well but we'll have to pass protect to win

It's not as easy as stacking the box versus the Titans run. If it was they would not be undefeated. DC after DC has tried this and failed. We need to mix things up as well. Vanilla Bob needs to be Creative Bob today

This is probably the last important game to win on our schedule. If we lose, it's a AFC team that is dominant right now. If we lose no biggie but if we win we will get many kudos from the entire NFL. This could be the game that really gives AROD the spotlight if we win.

Likewise, the Titans have a nice divisional lead and it's non conference so if they were picking a game to lose it might be this one as well.

[Fritz]

The trenches are important, but even with their great O Line, the Tennessee Offense is pretty mediocre. They benefit from short fields and the dominating play of their defense. Being able to run means they are able to shorten the game in the second half, something the Packers have had trouble with. But unless our Run D reverts to the Cowboys game level, I think we can hold them in check.

The Packer's may be able to pass against the Tennessee defense. And B is right, the Packer's coaches, with an extra week, might be able to scheme a running game into existence like they did last year versus the Vikings at Lambeau and the vaunted Purple Diuretic Poppers ( just kidding Ras). But my expectation is that this will be a low scoring game.

Some things might blow this prediction. Both teams can create and score on turnovers and the Packers have an advantage on ST, esp. the return game. Face it, Kerry Collins is the opposing QB.

But what worries me most are the little things that have been killing us. Penalties on O, dropped passes, pressure to the QB despite extra blockers. Those things will cost you dearly in a low scoring game. If we avoid them and play clean, we have a very good shot.

The boldface line above is a trenchant point (clever man, aren't I), but I would add to that that cutting KGB to, in effect, improve special teams (Pettway AND Hunter) may be a key. If the Packers' special teams are in order and can be a difference maker in terms of field position - both freeing up Blackmon to gain some yards on punts and kickoffs and keeping Tennesseee's returners from getting much - that can change the dynamic of the game.

Thank you also Bretsky for a post that is about analyzing football.

[Dabaddestbear]

Great post.
In THIS game it will be won in the trenches.

Yes, the Packers have better WR's, and arguably better CB's. But beyond that it gets tricky. Not sure if Rodgers is heads above of Collins though. If you give Collins Jennings and Driver he would look like a pro bowl QB..lol.

That being said, the Packers can and will win ONLY if they can keep Rodgers in his comfort zone. If he has to look off of Jennings and Driver too often he will become frustrated and look to scramble to his right and rush for yards. That normally would work except for the fact that the LB's will be looking for exactly that. And if the Running game doesnt do something, it will be hell for packer fans watching the Titans only rush four, while dropping everyone else in coverage. No threat out the backfield equals doom against the Titans.

And to all that says the Packers should go 5 wide against this defense does not consider the O-line play this season. They will and should keep an TE or back in to block on every play. If not your future QB may not make it through this season after this game.

But the Titans also have to stay within their game and not try to get into a offensive shoot out. Which I doubt because they seem so disciplined right now. They also must not bite on play action against a team that has no running game to speak of. This normally frees Jennings up deep and for some reason WIDE open. I dont know if this comes from Packers opponents so far this year having poor safeties, or if Jennings is promising the secondary a nice portion of his future singing bonus if they just let him get open.

I predict a Packers lost, but I will not rule out the possibility of a upset in this one mainly because of the WR's ability to make plays and the Titans defense willingness to take risk. Oh, did I mention how it seemed to me that the Titans don't seem to cover TE's too well down the seam?

[Iron Mike]

Re: TENN vs GB B BLOG..ARE GAMES WON IN THE TRENCHES ???

I've been thinking of this game all week long.

Hopefully, you don't let Mrs. B read this.

[Deputy Nutz]

I thought football games were won in the end zone.

[Bretsky]

Great post.
In THIS game it will be won in the trenches.

Yes, the Packers have better WR's, and arguably better CB's. But beyond that it gets tricky. Not sure if Rodgers is heads above of Collins though. If you give Collins Jennings and Driver he would look like a pro bowl QB..lol.

That being said, the Packers can and will win ONLY if they can keep Rodgers in his comfort zone. If he has to look off of Jennings and Driver too often he will become frustrated and look to scramble to his right and rush for yards. That normally would work except for the fact that the LB's will be looking for exactly that. And if the Running game doesnt do something, it will be hell for packer fans watching the Titans only rush four, while dropping everyone else in coverage. No threat out the backfield equals doom against the Titans.

And to all that says the Packers should go 5 wide against this defense does not consider the O-line play this season. They will and should keep an TE or back in to block on every play. If not your future QB may not make it through this season after this game.

But the Titans also have to stay within their game and not try to get into a offensive shoot out. Which I doubt because they seem so disciplined right now. They also must not bite on play action against a team that has no running game to speak of. This normally frees Jennings up deep and for some reason WIDE open. I dont know if this comes from Packers opponents so far this year having poor safeties, or if Jennings is promising the secondary a nice portion of his future singing bonus if they just let him get open.

I predict a Packers lost, but I will not rule out the possibility of a upset in this one mainly because of the WR's ability to make plays and the Titans defense willingness to take risk. Oh, did I mention how it seemed to me that the Titans don't seem to cover TE's too well down the seam?

good analysis Dabaddest Bear