Can the Packers rely on Cullen Jenkins?

[texaspackerbacker]

Injuries are about 98% LUCK--like tossing a coin.

You toss a coin and it comes up heads ten times in a row, are you gonna bet that it comes up heads the next time? Math and logic says no.
Jenkins has been a good player when healthy. There's no indication his injuries should have a lingering effect. Giving up on him, therefore, would be foolish.

As for using half or more of the draft for D Linemen, I say no way. Nobody we have has been horrible--some kinda mediocre, a couple still needing development, but none that I would summarily get rid of. If we could draft one highly probable superstar D Lineman, yeah, do it. But anything you get from round 2 through 7 would probably be no better than what we have--especially in the short term.

Sorry, but math and logic say it's 50-50 on the 11th toss. But Cullen Jenkins isn't a coin, he's a defensive lineman who seems to be injury prone. A better analogy: if you buy a Ford car and it breaks down, and then buy another and it too breaks down, and then buy a third and, sure enough, it also goes kaput, would you be dumb enough to buy a fourth?

The flaw in your example, Hoosier, is that (according to you, at least) car problems are NOT a matter of luck (I wiould contend that car problems are luck too, but that's a different argument). Injuries--Jenkins or others--are a lot more like the coin toss--pure luck. Thus, assuming there isn't lingering damage, each new season is like a new coin toss--no more likely to get injured than any other player.

[Partial]

Injuries are about 98% LUCK--like tossing a coin.

You toss a coin and it comes up heads ten times in a row, are you gonna bet that it comes up heads the next time? Math and logic says no.
Jenkins has been a good player when healthy. There's no indication his injuries should have a lingering effect. Giving up on him, therefore, would be foolish.

As for using half or more of the draft for D Linemen, I say no way. Nobody we have has been horrible--some kinda mediocre, a couple still needing development, but none that I would summarily get rid of. If we could draft one highly probable superstar D Lineman, yeah, do it. But anything you get from round 2 through 7 would probably be no better than what we have--especially in the short term.

Sorry, but math and logic say it's 50-50 on the 11th toss. But Cullen Jenkins isn't a coin, he's a defensive lineman who seems to be injury prone. A better analogy: if you buy a Ford car and it breaks down, and then buy another and it too breaks down, and then buy a third and, sure enough, it also goes kaput, would you be dumb enough to buy a fourth?

The flaw in your example, Hoosier, is that (according to you, at least) car problems are NOT a matter of luck (I wiould contend that car problems are luck too, but that's a different argument). Injuries--Jenkins or others--are a lot more like the coin toss--pure luck. Thus, assuming there isn't lingering damage, each new season is like a new coin toss--no more likely to get injured than any other player.

I disagree. Some people have the bodies that can take punishment, and others don't. You're trying to tell me Favre just got incredibly lucky, and that he is really as fragile as your average QB?

[Fritz]

Cullen Jenkins is not a coin!

I think that's the coolest thing I've read in awhile.

And I agree with Partial on this topic.

[texaspackerbacker]

And those fragile types seldom make it to NCAA football, much less the NFL.

If somebody breaks the same bone several times back to back to back, then maybe, just maybe, he is prone to that particular injury.

But Jenkins--and most NFL players that seem like they have a series of injuries--will get a left knee, a right wrist, a rib, a concussion, whatever--unrelated crap that is nothing but BAD LUCK.

[Fritz]

Maybe the title of this thread should have been "Can We Count on Cullen Jenkins to Be Lucky?"

[Gunakor]

And those fragile types seldom make it to NCAA football, much less the NFL.

If somebody breaks the same bone several times back to back to back, then maybe, just maybe, he is prone to that particular injury.

But Jenkins--and most NFL players that seem like they have a series of injuries--will get a left knee, a right wrist, a rib, a concussion, whatever--unrelated crap that is nothing but BAD LUCK.

Or maybe it's a sign of an overall inability to take the punishment that any NFL defensive lineman has to take over a long 16 game season. Or perhaps it's lack of desire, or a sign or poor conditioning. It's not just a simple matter of luck.

[Guiness]

And those fragile types seldom make it to NCAA football, much less the NFL.

If somebody breaks the same bone several times back to back to back, then maybe, just maybe, he is prone to that particular injury.

But Jenkins--and most NFL players that seem like they have a series of injuries--will get a left knee, a right wrist, a rib, a concussion, whatever--unrelated crap that is nothing but BAD LUCK.

Or maybe it's a sign of an overall inability to take the punishment that any NFL defensive lineman has to take over a long 16 game season. Or perhaps it's lack of desire, or a sign or poor conditioning. It's not just a simple matter of luck.

Yes, some injuries can be attributed to bad luck - file it under the "it's a violent sport" category. For instance, when I saw Vonta Leach roll over Collins this w/e, it wouldn't have been surprised to hear it caused a more serious injury.

I would tend to think coaching staffs pay more attention to soft tissue injuries that keep a guy out to see if a guy is going to stand up. I think those can be attributed to conditioning, inability to play through or maybe even bad mechanics. Ligament and tendon injuries can also be a sign of an overzealous supplement program.

[Merlin]

Supposedly we have a very good strength and conditioning coach. At least that was what was reported when McCarthy hired whoever it was. To be honest I don't know a lot about that program. Injuries will happen, that is part of the game. Jenkins brother Kris hasn't exactly been the picture of health in his career yet he is regarded as a very good DL. He may not be as good as his brother but he is better then average and certainly better then serveral of the DL we have.

[Guiness]

Supposedly we have a very good strength and conditioning coach. At least that was what was reported when McCarthy hired whoever it was. To be honest I don't know a lot about that program. Injuries will happen, that is part of the game. Jenkins brother Kris hasn't exactly been the picture of health in his career yet he is regarded as a very good DL. He may not be as good as his brother but he is better then average and certainly better then serveral of the DL we have.

That would be Rock Gullickson, came to the Packers in '06, and was at least partially credited with decreasing team injuries by getting rid of a lot of machines, and replacing them with free weights.

Just had a look at his bio on the Packers site. Did anyone know that there is a "Professional Football Strength and Conditioning Coaches Society"?

[texaspackerbacker]

Maybe the title of this thread should have been "Can We Count on Cullen Jenkins to Be Lucky?"

I wouldn't take him to Vegas and rub him for good luck ..... but then I wouldn't do that with Favre or whoever either.

[run pMc]

Regardless of whether Jenkins can stay healthy, I think Jeremy Thompson could improve and will be given a chance to push for the starting spot.

I agree they need to find someone to spell Kampman. It seems like his productivity drops after about 12 games, so I wonder if he just wears down.

I don't think Montgomery is the answer at DE. Same for Hunter, although he has value as a ST ace. (Supposedly so did Tracy White.)

The defense has had too much trouble pressuring QB's and stopping the run -- both recipes for disaster. I'm expecting some changes on the DL this offseason.

[KYPack]

We are hurtin' for certain at RDE. Thompson has potential, but he needs to fill out. He's still a young kid physically. He has upside, the kid can run.

Montgomery & Hunter?, bye bye to Monty, Hunter may keep his spot due to ST.

The White cut was an area where TT's hang-ups got us. We lost Haynos to Miami, & then they came sniffing around after Lasagna. TT didn't want to lose two good looking kids to the same team. So White got the ax. Our kick rush team went to hell soon after. White was the vet bull goose of that bunch and they were lost w/out their leader.

Long term, it was no big deal, they can get or grow another White. But for the season, it really screwed us up.

[DonHutson]

Clearly we can't. That doesn't mean get rid of him, or give up on him. But it does mean that anything you get out of him should be considered a bonus, and you'd be stupid not to enhance the depth behind him.

Even with a healthy Jenkins, they need another pass rusher for sure. They also need to bulk up against the run both inside and out. I could easily see two ends and a tackle picked in the first four rounds (five picks).

That would assume Kampman, Jenkins, Thompson, a rookie pass rusher, and a rookie run stuffer at end. It would be great if the pass rusher and the run stuffer were the same guy, but they're few and far between.

DT would be Pickett, Jolly, a rookie who can stuff the run, plus Harrell and/or Cole.

[Pugger]

This year our D line play suffered because Jolly and Pickett, for whatever reason, are not playing at the level they did last year and Harrell unable to stay on the field so having Jenkins on IR hurts us even more.

[texaspackerbacker]

I'm reading a lot of bad words about Montgomery in here. From what I've seen, he's been almost as good as Kampman in pass rushing and a helluva lot better than Kampman against the run.

There would seem to be a strong chance Jenkins will be good as new for next season, and with LUCK, he won't get hurt again. Between him and Kampman and Montgomery and Thompson and possibly some help from Hunter, I think the Packers are well-stocked at DE.