Harrell - again.....

[Zool]

There's also guys who never get hurt in college or pro's, get drafted in the first and suck balls for their brief careers. Its a complete crap shoot.

[pbmax]

... with the money these 1st rounders are making these days, no you dont gamble on a guy who is a proven health risk factor... there are way more cases where a guy keeps getting injured than he does staying healthy...

PP4, you have a point if its a top 5 or top 10 pick. But the 16th pick in the first round is not making ridiculous money, even under the current CBA. He was worth the financial risk.

And to answer Merlin, I think the Packer's board clearly had him as BPA, why else did they take him? His was not a position of need at that moment. For better or worse, T2 stayed put because his board told him he was getting great value. Otherwise they would have traded down.

It doesn't seem to have worked, move on, pick again. Some 4th rounder next year will make Harrell seem expendable.

[sharpe1027]

with the money these 1st rounders are making these days, no you dont gamble on a guy who is a proven health risk factor... there are way more cases where a guy keeps getting injured than he does staying healthy...

And here I thought TT's biggest critque was that he was too conservative. I guess we should start calling him the gambler!

[KYPack]

Injuries are injuries. A guy got hurt in college. He will probably get hurt in the pros. You take your chances.

There was a neat study I saw a few years back. 1st round choices play effectively in the pros about 40% of the time. 2nd rounds 30%. 3rd rounders 20%.

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

You get a better class of player in the higher rounds, but something like 60% of all #1's never become effective players (even though 99% make the roster)

The good organizations get a higher percentage of good players, but everbody is guessing.

[oregonpackfan]

Injuries are injuries. A guy got hurt in college. He will probably get hurt in the pros. You take your chances.

There was a neat study I saw a few years back. 1st round choices play effectively in the pros about 40% of the time. 2nd rounds 30%. 3rd rounders 20%.

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

You get a better class of player in the higher rounds, but something like 60% of all #1's never become effective players (even though 99% make the roster)

The good organizations get a higher percentage of good players, but everbody is guessing.

Interesting statistics, KY. They make sense.

[GrnBay007]

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

....and people question TT has one hell of an ego? lol 7th round is his favorite, isn't it? I sure hope he makes the right moves for the Packers this next year...draft and FA. Pretty crucial IMO.

[sharpe1027]

Injuries are injuries. A guy got hurt in college. He will probably get hurt in the pros. You take your chances.

There was a neat study I saw a few years back. 1st round choices play effectively in the pros about 40% of the time. 2nd rounds 30%. 3rd rounders 20%.

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

You get a better class of player in the higher rounds, but something like 60% of all #1's never become effective players (even though 99% make the roster)

The good organizations get a higher percentage of good players, but everbody is guessing.

Considering that 1st rounders make 2-10 times more than second rounders, much of it guranteed money, and that the 60% that don't make a contribution stick around way too long, I am surprised that teams keep making 1st round selections...seriously.

[Fritz]

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

....and people question TT has one hell of an ego? lol 7th round is his favorite, isn't it? I sure hope he makes the right moves for the Packers this next year...draft and FA. Pretty crucial IMO.

Sorry, Double "OH!". TT has gotten more second round picks (8) than seventh rounders (7); thus, the second round appears to be his favorite round. He's also had 7 fourth rounders, by the way.

[bobblehead]

Where does TT explain why he drafted this guy again? He was healthy one year in School and he takes him with the 16th pick. He has been nothing but injured here in GB...what a shocker. Blame it on the scouts......

Yeah, blame it on the scouts. But while you are doing that, remember that Shanahan stated quite clearly that if Green Bay hadn't taken him at #16, Denver would have taken him at #17. It's not like TT drafted him out of position - he was going to go in the middle of the first round regardless. Hindsight says "Well, I'd rather it have been Denver". But we didn't have the benefit of hindsight back then.

If Harrell had worked out and stayed healthy, we'd all be praising TT for the pick, finding us a young solid DT for years to come. We'd have been thanking TT for bringing him here rather than letting him slip to Denver at #17. We didn't know back then, and neither did anyone else. It's a crapshoot, which I thought was understood by all here. Nobody is guaranteed anything in the first round.

ya and if Ahmad Carrol had worked out we'd be praising Sherman... thing is he didn't and neither has Harrell.. this team is 5-8 quit giving Ted ''snake'' Thompson such a free pass... its just another way he has fucked up OUR Packers! If its not fixed midway thru next season let the snake go back into the wild!

Do you honestly not see the difference? One guy drafted an undersized but fast guy who played at a smaller program against bad competition and never really showed good football instincts. The other guy drafted a freakishly big bodied manchild who showed good instincts against top competition but had injury problems in college. Yea, makes perfect sense to compare those two scenarios. Once Mark Hatley died Mike Sherman NEVER made a single good draft pick.

Played at a smaller program? Arkansas is part of the SEC as far as I know! When bashing someone else, you should have your facts straight, at the very least. When you don't you just look foolish!

I stand corrected, for some reason I thought carroll came from a small program, my mistake. It still doesn't change the fact that physically he didn't match up other than he was fast in the 40. I won't belabour the point since I was wrong about a key element of it, but I still think the Harrell pick was much stronger than Carroll.

[pbmax]

Justin's Contract:

7/27/2007: Signed a six-year, $14.507 million contract. The deal contains $8.1 million in guarantees, including a $1 million first-year roster bonus. 2008: $370,000, (+ $5.3 million option bonus + $30,000 roster bonus), 2009: $460,000 (+ $186,625 roster bonus), 2010: $550,000 (+ $408,375 roster bonus), 2011: $650,000 (+ $575,000 roster bonus), 2012: $1,536,750, 2013: Free Agent

He has earned 6.3 million of the "guaranteed" money so far, if that option bonus was paid before the season, which would be standard.

[KYPack]

There was a neat study I saw a few years back. 1st round choices play effectively in the pros about 40% of the time. 2nd rounds 30%. 3rd rounders 20%.

Only about 2-3 % of 7th rounders make a roster. These figures are guesses from memory, but that was the trending.

You get a better class of player in the higher rounds, but something like 60% of all #1's never become effective players (even though 99% make the roster)

The good organizations get a higher percentage of good players, but everbody is guessing.

Considering that 1st rounders make 2-10 times more than second rounders, much of it guranteed money, and that the 60% that don't make a contribution stick around way too long, I am surprised that teams keep making 1st round selections...seriously.

I know what you mean. I've long felt this new way of paying draft choices is goofy. #1's have to make the roster to amortize the signing bonus.

This might be a great year to trade down, although you'd think we could use an impact guy if one popped up.

What's the last #1 that was cut?

I think it's Demetrius Underwood, him being cerifiably nuts & all, but i don't know for sure.

[Gunakor]

The Minnesota Vikings took the most talented player in teh draft with the 7th pick. He slipped that far because of injury risk. Look how that turned out.

If I recall, AP had 1 injury in his career (shoulder) and we all know how many hits a running back takes..

Harrell had the majority of his college career marred by injury, and now it carries over into the big league..

I agree every GM misses on draft picks, whether round one, or round 6.. But with so much at stake with a D1, I say you don't pick an injury guy..

Actually Peterson had an ankle problem in his sophomore season and a broken collar bone in his junior season. Harrell had an ankle problem in his junior season and a torn biceps in his senior season. I think he missed a game or 2 in his sophomore season for something nagging, but nothing much.

Its actually really close. Harrell just happened to be hurt a ton now while Peterson has only missed a few games.

Peterson actually showed a ton of ability and an even higher potential while in college. Harrell did not show anything in college that warrented him being picked as high as he was. Comparing Harrell's and AP's college careers is a joke.

Sorry you didn't get to see Harrell play while in college. When healthy, he was a freakin beast at DT for the Volunteers. He was going to go in the first round, whether we picked him or not. He was a first round projection due to how well he played when healthy. He'd have been top 10 if not for that torn bicep his senior year.

[denverYooper]

Harrell was listed as "Full Participation" for today, "Questionable" for game day. I'm pretty sure he'll play Sunday.

[th87]

Why is this even a story? Other players are missing practice time too.

Oh yeah, because papers need to sell, and what better way to do that than attacking everyone's favorite whipping boy?

We have no clue how he's going to turn out. Calling him a bust is premature.

[Freak Out]

The Minnesota Vikings took the most talented player in teh draft with the 7th pick. He slipped that far because of injury risk. Look how that turned out.

If I recall, AP had 1 injury in his career (shoulder) and we all know how many hits a running back takes..

Harrell had the majority of his college career marred by injury, and now it carries over into the big league..

I agree every GM misses on draft picks, whether round one, or round 6.. But with so much at stake with a D1, I say you don't pick an injury guy..

Actually Peterson had an ankle problem in his sophomore season and a broken collar bone in his junior season. Harrell had an ankle problem in his junior season and a torn biceps in his senior season. I think he missed a game or 2 in his sophomore season for something nagging, but nothing much.

Its actually really close. Harrell just happened to be hurt a ton now while Peterson has only missed a few games.

Peterson actually showed a ton of ability and an even higher potential while in college. Harrell did not show anything in college that warrented him being picked as high as he was. Comparing Harrell's and AP's college careers is a joke.

Sorry you didn't get to see Harrell play while in college. When healthy, he was a freakin beast at DT for the Volunteers. He was going to go in the first round, whether we picked him or not. He was a first round projection due to how well he played when healthy. He'd have been top 10 if not for that torn bicep his senior year.

Great..he played fantastic in school and he was a beast....when he starts to do that in the NFL we'll stop bashing him and TT for drafting him. Both are paid millions to do a job and only one has performed to date.