4th quarter woes

[superfan]

Anybody who has followed the Packers this year has witnessed a team that has struggled mightily to win close games, and has not lived up to the expectations of most after last season's performance.

So, what happened?

Many possible explanations have been offered - injuries, bad calls by the refs, bad luck, coaching blunders, GM blunders, QB transition, penalties, an atrocious defense, an inconsistent running game. Just to name a few. The answer seems to be the sum of all these parts.

As a mostly casual fan who does not study film and who has never played the game, I have been most frustrated lately by the defense's inability to get a key stop late in the game. I have done some basic analysis of the 4th quarter (and OT) for the 14 games leading up to this point, and here is what I have found.

1. In 8 of the 14 games, GB has allowed the opponent to tie or take the lead late in the game.

2. GB is 1-7 in these games, with the lone win coming against the winless Lions.

3. 11 times through 14 games the opponent has tied the game or taken the lead late in the game.

4. In 4 of these 8 games, the offense has been able to either tie the game again or retake the lead. The defense gave it up again in all but one of these games.

5. GB is 4-2 in games when they did not allow the opponent to tie the game or take the lead in the 4th quarter. The two losses were to the Cowboys and Saints, GB was never really in either of those games.

6. If each game had ended at the end of three quarters, GB's record would be a much more acceptable 7-6-1, and they would still have a chance to win the NFC North.

Maybe the most shocking stat of all in light of what is listed above - GB has actually outscored their opponents in the 4th quarter this season, 127-124. If you add in the field goal kicked by the Titans in overtime, total scoring after the third quarter is dead even - 127 to 127.

Like many other things that have happened this season, this simply does not make sense and seems to be a statistical anomaly.

My only explanation is the old cliche about "making plays". We seem to be scoring enough points to win (even though the defense is giving up enough points to lose), but are not making enough key plays at key times to win consistently.

[Kiwon]

Failing to make the big play.....AND giving up the big play with blown coverages, added to terrible field position via poor punting also have hurt late in games.

But, the offense can't convert on 2nd and one, 3rd and one, and 4th and one?

[MadtownPacker]

Damn I thought you where pushing daises and then you come out with this sick post. It is good stuff and agrees with what I have seen in games also. It actually is what has made the season so aggravating. The NFC north could have easily been had if just a few of those close games go different. That is all on the coaches starting with M3.

[Patler]

It actually is even worse than letting them score "late in the fourth quarter". They let them score on their last possession. Ignoring a final possession to kill the clock, the Packers have allowed the winning points to be scored during their opponents' last possession in 6 games.

[Gunakor]

It actually is even worse than letting them score "late in the fourth quarter". They let them score on their last possession. Ignoring a final possession to kill the clock, the Packers have allowed the winning points to be scored during their opponents' last possession in 6 games.

And here I was beginning to buy into the belief of some that it was Green Bay who failed to score points on their last possession that was the problem...

Thanks for bringing me back down to earth.

If our defense holds in just half of those we would be sitting in first place in the division and talking a bunch of smack to Bears fans this week. Instead we are talking about the possibility of a top 10 draft pick. That's disturbing, to say the least.

[The Leaper]

Difference:

Veteran Favre under center vs. first-time-starter Rodgers.

Favre took pressure off everyone and gave the kids confidence in themselves, even if it wasn't really based in anything tangible. Rodgers hasn't proven himself in that capacity yet, and it does hinder the team as a result.

[Gunakor]

Difference:

Veteran Favre under center vs. first-time-starter Rodgers.

Favre took pressure off everyone and gave the kids confidence in themselves, even if it wasn't really based in anything tangible. Rodgers hasn't proven himself in that capacity yet, and it does hinder the team as a result.

ROFL

As though this one hasn't been beat to death over the last couple of weeks already...

I don't buy for a second that the defense played better last year because Brett Favre is our QB. But I digress... if you can find one single quote or implication from ANY member of our defense that their struggles this year might have something to do with our new QB, please post a link here and I'll reconsider my stance on this issue.

[The Leaper]

I don't buy for a second that the defense played better last year because Brett Favre is our QB. But I digress... if you can find one single quote or implication from ANY member of our defense that their struggles this year might have something to do with our new QB, please post a link here and I'll reconsider my stance on this issue.

I'm not talking about the defense.

I'm talking about an offense that has had the ball in the last 2 minutes numerous times and failed to mount even a smidgeon of a drive that might produce points...and has come up short (like this week) and been unable to punch it in the endzone in the 4th quarter when it matters, settling for FGs.

Yeah, the defense has faltered late...but so has the offense.

[Patler]

It actually is even worse than letting them score "late in the fourth quarter". They let them score on their last possession. Ignoring a final possession to kill the clock, the Packers have allowed the winning points to be scored during their opponents' last possession in 6 games.

And here I was beginning to buy into the belief of some that it was Green Bay who failed to score points on their last possession that was the problem...

Thanks for bringing me back down to earth.

If our defense holds in just half of those we would be sitting in first place in the division and talking a bunch of smack to Bears fans this week. Instead we are talking about the possibility of a top 10 draft pick. That's disturbing, to say the least.

Don't misunderstand me, in several of those games the Packers had one reasonable offensive opportunity after the winning points were scored, but in some games they did not.

[th87]

Difference:

Veteran Favre under center vs. first-time-starter Rodgers.

Favre took pressure off everyone and gave the kids confidence in themselves, even if it wasn't really based in anything tangible. Rodgers hasn't proven himself in that capacity yet, and it does hinder the team as a result.

The last stand for the Favreophiles - invoking his magical aura that would somehow have prevented injuries and poor execution.

Sure, Favre may have won some games, but there's no way to know. And even if he did, it's pretty evident that the team is quite flawed even with him around. This would likely result in an early playoff exit in Favre's last year. Not worth it.

[Fritz]

Difference:

Veteran Favre under center vs. first-time-starter Rodgers.

Favre took pressure off everyone and gave the kids confidence in themselves, even if it wasn't really based in anything tangible. Rodgers hasn't proven himself in that capacity yet, and it does hinder the team as a result.

ROFL

As though this one hasn't been beat to death over the last couple of weeks already...

I don't buy for a second that the defense played better last year because Brett Favre is our QB. But I digress... if you can find one single quote or implication from ANY member of our defense that their struggles this year might have something to do with our new QB, please post a link here and I'll reconsider my stance on this issue.

Gun - Like you, Leaper, Superfan and others, I have been scratching my head over what the hell happened, exactly, this year. And you and I have been on this board long enough to know that we often agree on issues, and that I am no "Favreophile," though I recognize his talents and what he gave this team for so many years.

Surely all the statistical analysis that's been done has been good stuff, but it all still leaves me scratching my head - it still seems that something is missing. And I have come to the conclusion that it's possible, given the right set of circumstances, that Brett Favre - not the player himself, but the aura, the knowledge that this legend is on your team - might have something to do with the confidence level of any team he's on. It doesn't mean the guy can carry anyone. He can't. The 4-12 season proved that.

Yet if there is the right mix of players and coaches on a team, say a team that is unproven, I think it's at least possible that Favre's reputation gives players, young ones especially, a certain swagger. No one feels he has to do it all or be the star, because he's got THE Brett Favre on his side.

Again, I'm not saying Favre is Superman. But I'm not sure we should discount the psychological lift his presence might bring to a team. After all, look at the Jets' turnaround this year. Yes, there are other factors. Of course. But Favre's presence might be an important factor as well.

Look at the way "momentum" is constantly harped upon during football games. It espcecially seems to play a role in college games, where the players are younger. A guy makes a huge play, and what looked like a lost team suddenly comes out knocking the other team off the ball and making every play. If one's frame of mind can contribute or detract from one's performance, why wouldn't we at least consider the psychological implications of Favre's presence or lack thereof as one factor to consider when pondering this year's free fall?

[run pMc]

Favre doesn't play defense.
Having said that, I think he's got more of an aura at this point, plus enough experience to probably have made a difference in 2 or maybe three of those games. That still wouldn't put us ahead of the Vikings right now.

I don't see the QB as being the problem this year. He's accurate, he doesn't throw 30 picks, he's played through injuries. I think the OL/RB situation could have been better, and I certainly think the DL needs help taking up blockers and providing a pass rush.

I wonder about the number of 4Q collapses. Considering the # and talent level of guys being platooned, injuries, conditioning, and roster depth have to be issues.

[Gunakor]

I don't buy for a second that the defense played better last year because Brett Favre is our QB. But I digress... if you can find one single quote or implication from ANY member of our defense that their struggles this year might have something to do with our new QB, please post a link here and I'll reconsider my stance on this issue.

I'm not talking about the defense.

I'm talking about an offense that has had the ball in the last 2 minutes numerous times and failed to mount even a smidgeon of a drive that might produce points...and has come up short (like this week) and been unable to punch it in the endzone in the 4th quarter when it matters, settling for FGs.

Yeah, the defense has faltered late...but so has the offense.

I can agree with you to an extent, but where I can't agree comes when Rodgers leads this offense to points with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter. They happen to be points that put our team ahead. With 5 minutes to go. Now if the defense allows a quick score to put our opponent ahead with 2 minutes to go, then we are putting Rodgers and the offense back in the same position they were in before the opponents winning drive began. That's where my problem lies.

If you score points with 5 minutes left in the game to put your team ahead, THOSE should be the winning points. Not the ones that come on the following opponents drive. No offense should be put in the position of having to engineer a winning drive in the final 2 minutes every week, especially when they've engineered a winning drive with 5 minutes left. In that case, as has been the case many times this season, the defense HAS to hold on the opponents final drive. That is the real issue here IMO.

[Noodle]

And I have come to the conclusion that it's possible, given the right set of circumstances, that Brett Favre - not the player himself, but the aura, the knowledge that this legend is on your team - might have something to do with the confidence level of any team he's on. It doesn't mean the guy can carry anyone. He can't. The 4-12 season proved that.

Yet if there is the right mix of players and coaches on a team, say a team that is unproven, I think it's at least possible that Favre's reputation gives players, young ones especially, a certain swagger. No one feels he has to do it all or be the star, because he's got THE Brett Favre on his side.

Fritzy, you make a good point, but I discount the effect of Favre leaving this Packer team because this team was a proven winner. It went 13-3 last year. I agree that Favre could lift a team, and I think he did so with the Jets, but I don't think the Packers coming in to the 2008 season needed, or felt like they needed, that kind of lift. These guys knew they could play, and, being youngsters, they probably thought they didn't need the old gray haired dude anymore.

I'm coming more to the belief that the combo of Barnett going down and Hawk having that groin injury has significantly affected defensive cohesion and speed. That our DL has been so poor only makes it worse, as this exposes our underperforming LBs to attack by the OL. None of this has anything to do with Favre.

[sharpe1027]

I don't buy for a second that the defense played better last year because Brett Favre is our QB. But I digress... if you can find one single quote or implication from ANY member of our defense that their struggles this year might have something to do with our new QB, please post a link here and I'll reconsider my stance on this issue.

I'm not talking about the defense.

I'm talking about an offense that has had the ball in the last 2 minutes numerous times and failed to mount even a smidgeon of a drive that might produce points...and has come up short (like this week) and been unable to punch it in the endzone in the 4th quarter when it matters, settling for FGs.

Yeah, the defense has faltered late...but so has the offense.

How many 4th quarter comebacks were there last year? How many were in the last 2 minutes?