Losing a battle but winning the war

[swede]

Waiting in line to see Donald Driver at a book-signing today I chatted with a young lady, about 25 years old I should think, who really dislikes TT.

I've known this person since she was about eight or nine and I hold her in high regard. I began to wonder if the like/don't like TT thing is a matter of whether or not you agree with his actions, approve of the results, or simply resent his intrusion into the Favre era Packers.

By the last point I mean this:

Fans younger than 30 years of age were still pretty much in their childhood when Favre came along. Reggie White, Mike Holmgren, and Ron Wolf were a big part of those early times but Favre's talent. personality, and growing legend dominated the team's persona from 1992 on. These young fans grew up with Favre and his influence is all they know.

Hiring Ray Rhodes was an attempt to keep it all going. Hiring Mike Sherman was also an attempt to keep it all going--at his first presser Sherman stated that the Green Bay Packers would never need to be rebuilt and that the term "re-building" would never apply in Green Bay.

When TT came everything changed. It was apparent that the Green Bay Packers were now being run by someone who was likely to be here longer than Favre. I think the younger fans resent TT and the intrusion of his personality upon the team the way children often resent step-parents. ("You may have to be here, but I don't have to like you.")

I like TT. I like his style. I thought he had everything going pretty good. But if he doesn't fix this team by 2010, it's time for a new GM.

[Pugger]

I think a lot of the resentment towards TT is because of the Favre saga this summer. Nobody that I recall was spewing the venom you see in some quarters towards TT until that mess between the Packers and their iconic QB ended with his being traded. You would've thought they committed something along the lines of high treason. Some of these people will not rest until TT, McCarthy AND Murphy are no longer at 1265.

[MJZiggy]

They could have a long wait...In the meantime, a lot of the rest of us are just tired of hearing it (you know who you are).

I think Swede makes some good points. There are a lot of people who know Don Majkowski only as a name from someone else's past.

[sheepshead]

TT is not Sun Tzu.

Clearly it was another way of saying he's focused on winning championships over the long haul, not regular season games each individual year

I'm not sure I 100% understand this. How can you win a championship without first winning lots of regular season games? Are you suggesting the team loses to get better draft picks over the course of some finite number of years or that they play guys during the regular season trying to gain them experience thinking at some future point in time it will payoff during some big season while sacrificing current seasons?

I'm with ya brother, I had trouble with that one too.

[sheepshead]

Waiting in line to see Donald Driver at a book-signing today I chatted with a young lady, about 25 years old I should think, who really dislikes TT.

I've known this person since she was about eight or nine and I hold her in high regard. I began to wonder if the like/don't like TT thing is a matter of whether or not you agree with his actions, approve of the results, or simply resent his intrusion into the Favre era Packers.

By the last point I mean this:

Fans younger than 30 years of age were still pretty much in their childhood when Favre came along. Reggie White, Mike Holmgren, and Ron Wolf were a big part of those early times but Favre's talent. personality, and growing legend dominated the team's persona from 1992 on. These young fans grew up with Favre and his influence is all they know.

Hiring Ray Rhodes was an attempt to keep it all going. Hiring Mike Sherman was also an attempt to keep it all going--at his first presser Sherman stated that the Green Bay Packers would never need to be rebuilt and that the term "re-building" would never apply in Green Bay.

When TT came everything changed. It was apparent that the Green Bay Packers were now being run by someone who was likely to be here longer than Favre. I think the younger fans resent TT and the intrusion of his personality upon the team the way children often resent step-parents. ("You may have to be here, but I don't have to like you.")

I like TT. I like his style. I thought he had everything going pretty good. But if he doesn't fix this team by 2010, it's time for a new GM.

Good point Swede. I never compare these times to the 90's. I compare them to the nightmare late 70's and 80's. Not a very good year, but we still have a very good team and a franchise quarter back.The youngest team in football and a very bright future. Look, two playoff teams (vikings and bucs) are switching QB's midstream. If TT didnt do his job this past off-season, that would be us next year because Rodgers would be gone.

[RashanGary]

We've also had a really nice run of playoff appearances but no SB's. The Atlanta Braves are going through a similar thing. Sometimes they don't even fill up playoff seats anymore. People are sort of bored with being in it but not winning it. Many teams (like minny) are completely extatic at the chance of creeping in. If that was our team we'd be bitching about the quarterback and talking losing valuable draft slots because we snuck into the playoffs all for nothing.

[RashanGary]

My point was that Thompson using up every recource to try to win one short term battle. Sure, his odds of winning that particular battle would have gone up, but the odds of winning a championship over the next 5 years would have gone down. He's an all or nothing guy.

By selling out short term with bad contracts, it doesn't hurt immediately. Probably our team would have been better if he had signed guys like Chris Jenkins and Allan Faneca. However, injuries would have compiled anyway and I think the odds of winning it all would have still been relatively low. Then we would have struggled to resign Jennings, Collins, Kampman and others. We would slowly fade, this time we'd be packed against the cap with no wiggle room. Really, that all out shot to win the war often turns into a situation where you outright lose the war (in this analogy, you're stuck rebuilding becuase your shot didn't work).

Rather than taking a one year approach to win it all that would almost certainly fail, Thompson believes that he will not make poor contract decisions, will not sell out more long term recources for less short term ones. He will continue to stack good decision on good decision, talking advantage of opportunity as it arises and of the nature of each market. Over time we'll have several legit shots at a SB rather than just one and rather than doing better in the first battle, we'll do better in all of them, giving us a better chance to win the war. His strategy is the type that builds dynasties. The one shot wonder has a chance at a one time winner, but usually fails and certainly falls apart shortly after.

[Bretsky]

My point was that Thompson using up every recource to try to win one short term battle. Sure, his odds of winning that particular battle would have gone up, but the odds of winning a championship over the next 5 years would have gone down. He's an all or nothing guy.

By selling out short term with bad contracts, it doesn't hurt immediately. Probably our team would have been better if he had signed guys like Chris Jenkins and Allan Faneca. However, injuries would have compiled anyway and I think the odds of winning it all would have still been relatively low. Then we would have struggled to resign Jennings, Collins, Kampman and others. We would slowly fade, this time we'd be packed against the cap with no wiggle room. Really, that all out shot to win the war often turns into a situation where you outright lose the war (in this analogy, you're stuck rebuilding becuase your shot didn't work).

Rather than taking a one year approach to win it all that would almost certainly fail, Thompson believes that he will not make poor contract decisions, will not sell out more long term recources for less short term ones. He will continue to stack good decision on good decision, talking advantage of opportunity as it arises and of the nature of each market. Over time we'll have several legit shots at a SB rather than just one and rather than doing better in the first battle, we'll do better in all of them, giving us a better chance to win the war. His strategy is the type that builds dynasties. The one shot wonder has a chance at a one time winner, but usually fails and certainly falls apart shortly after.

You've just offered the perfect response to any legitimate free agent signing...aka....Haynesworth. But I don't buy for one moment taking the plunge into free agency is a one year approach. How old is Faneca ? Your assumption is that it's all or none this year but he signed a four or five year deal and with his age he will probabaly remain one of the top OG's in the NFL for several years to come. And don't think for a second signing him to the exact deal he went to the Jets for would have strapped our ability to sign Jennings, Kampmen, or anybody on our roster. That deal hardly hurts our cap if you look at it going into this year. Maybe we don't carry as much money forward to the next year; our cap will always be healthy. Signing a young guy to a long term lucrative deal is not one year wonder stuff.

[RashanGary]

Nope, that's not what I said, B. I think there is a good chance at Hayensworth because he's younger than most UFA's and more dominate than any of them. Usually UFA's are either 30 or not that good and they get paid like kings. Hayensworth is a dominate football player in his prime.

What I said above was that he would, "take advantage of the nature of each market". The nature of the draft is that good players are often available but they take time to develop so they don't fill immediate needs and your odds of hitting are higher if you take best player. The nature of UFA is that great players rarely make it under the age of 30. Yet, despite being either old or not great, they are often times teh highest paid players in the NFL. Sometiems you take an upside risk on an injured player like Woodson and Chris Jenkis and it pays off. Other tiems it fails like Arrington. There are often times better deals with lower end UFA's. The nature of the fringe markets is that you can rotate 50 players through and keep the best one. No risk, only reward.


I think TT will tend to try to fill immediate needs with UFA. Woodson, Pickett, Chillar and the failed guards of 2005 are examples of him trying to fill deserpate needs with UFA's (sometimes it's worked other tiems it hasn't).

That doesn't mean a high priced one that is really good won't come along. Woodson did. There was an age risk that ended up paying off. Hayensworth is in his prime. He's dominate. We really need him right now. He has a character risk that could or could not pay off. I don't think it's outside of TT's M.O. to sign a great player on UFA (he already has with Woodson). I just think it's probably not going to happen every year (because need and opportunity don't alwyas meet). I think there is a good chance it happens this year. 6-10 is a problem. Soemthign is wrong. I truely believe its the DL and if Ted holds true to form, he'll attack a desperate immediate need with a UFA. AH is a unique UFA and while his price will certainly be high, the character risk is what got him here nd might keep the price within reason. It will be a risk, but one I think could be taken based on Ted's previous moves. We'll see though. I think there is a good chacne we sign a UFA dlineman (or make a trade).

[Rastak]

We've also had a really nice run of playoff appearances but no SB's. The Atlanta Braves are going through a similar thing. Sometimes they don't even fill up playoff seats anymore. People are sort of bored with being in it but not winning it. Many teams (like minny) are completely extatic at the chance of creeping in. If that was our team we'd be bitching about the quarterback and talking losing valuable draft slots because we snuck into the playoffs all for nothing.

You're GLAD the Packers didn't make the playoffs? You think the majority of fans here would bitch because the team made the playoffs and lost valuable draft slots? Are you serious?

[RashanGary]

We've also had a really nice run of playoff appearances but no SB's. The Atlanta Braves are going through a similar thing. Sometimes they don't even fill up playoff seats anymore. People are sort of bored with being in it but not winning it. Many teams (like minny) are completely extatic at the chance of creeping in. If that was our team we'd be bitching about the quarterback and talking losing valuable draft slots because we snuck into the playoffs all for nothing.

You're GLAD the Packers didn't make the playoffs? You think the majority of fans here would bitch because the team made the playoffs and lost valuable draft slots? Are you serious?

I think we'd be far less extatic as you all are and I think there is a good chance you don't even make it, but jsut being there is a good feeling I suppose. As far as making the playoffs, if it's with this team, I'm glad we didn't. We don't deserve it. I don't want to be there unless I think we can really win it.

[Rastak]

We've also had a really nice run of playoff appearances but no SB's. The Atlanta Braves are going through a similar thing. Sometimes they don't even fill up playoff seats anymore. People are sort of bored with being in it but not winning it. Many teams (like minny) are completely extatic at the chance of creeping in. If that was our team we'd be bitching about the quarterback and talking losing valuable draft slots because we snuck into the playoffs all for nothing.

You're GLAD the Packers didn't make the playoffs? You think the majority of fans here would bitch because the team made the playoffs and lost valuable draft slots? Are you serious?

I think we'd be far less extatic as you all are and I think there is a good chance you don't even make it, but jsut being there is a good feeling I suppose. As far as making the playoffs, if it's with this team, I'm glad we didn't. We don't deserve it.

The idea with each season is to get into the post season tourney because once there, you have at least a shot. I really don't get this "missing the playoffs is part of the grand plan" and fans would be exited when the first playoff game started. When you say "less ecstatic than you all are" I have to ask, how many Vikings fans do you interact with during your average day? The team hasn't even made the playoffs yet, so I'm not sure who is telling you theyt are "ecstatic".

[RashanGary]

For the record, I think your team is going to start feeling their age. I think the Pat Williams injury finished you off this year. The trading away of picks is going to start to take it's toll. The difference is now your'e not going to have the money to go out and patch it and by trading away picks you won't have the depth to replace the retiring guys.

I wouldn't want your situation. Despite haivng Adrian Peterson, I think your situation is going to tumble downward over the next few years.


Also, as tough as this year has been as a Packer fan, I think our long term outlook is very positive. I think we're going to bounce back well adn win the division next year.

[Bretsky]

We've also had a really nice run of playoff appearances but no SB's. The Atlanta Braves are going through a similar thing. Sometimes they don't even fill up playoff seats anymore. People are sort of bored with being in it but not winning it. Many teams (like minny) are completely extatic at the chance of creeping in. If that was our team we'd be bitching about the quarterback and talking losing valuable draft slots because we snuck into the playoffs all for nothing.

You're GLAD the Packers didn't make the playoffs? You think the majority of fans here would bitch because the team made the playoffs and lost valuable draft slots? Are you serious?

I think we'd be far less extatic as you all are and I think there is a good chance you don't even make it, but jsut being there is a good feeling I suppose. As far as making the playoffs, if it's with this team, I'm glad we didn't. We don't deserve it. I don't want to be there unless I think we can really win it.

you know.........I actually have a similar but less strong view........and we'll both get blasted a bit for it........ But that's a sign of how spoiled we've been over the past 15 years.

[Bretsky]

For the record, I think your team is going to start feeling their age. I think the Pat Williams injury finished you off this year. The trading away of picks is going to start to take it's toll. The difference is now your'e not going to have the money to go out and patch it and by trading away picks you won't have the depth to replace the retiring guys.

I wouldn't want your situation. Despite haivng Adrian Peterson, I think your situation is going to tumble downward over the next few years.


Also, as tough as this year has been as a Packer fan, I think our long term outlook is very positive. I think we're going to bounce back well adn win the division next year.

Actually the Vikings IMO have a good situations to build around. They have a HOF talent RB in his second year. A very good OL. A superstar at DE who still has plenty of juice. They just need a QB and a surrounding cast.