Dumb luck

[Fosco33]

lets not forget that we had absolutely nothing to lose in this game

and yet he still went conservative in the second half

That's a very good observation actually.

Damn right. In the first half MM is going for it on 4th downs fake punts. I thought he had changed. I remember saying "This is the first time in a while MM has called a game aggressively! 2nd half. Here comes Pussy MM.

Oh and about Favre changing the play. I didn't mean at the end when we were going to kick a field goal (though I do think MM is a pussy for playing for one). I meant more when Rodgers JUST completed a 20 yard pass to Driver and we are at the 50. Now here comes MM and his clock killing run run and then oh it's 3rd and 13 go ahead and throw it now crap. It seems obvious that MM doesn't have confidence in Rodgers that he did have in Favre. I may have gotten carried away with what I said but I think it definitely had something to do with Favre being here.

M3 did go for it in the 2nd half on 4th down inside Bear's 20. Got the 1st down but had to settle for a FG anyway.... He did tighten up a bit but to say he was ultra conservative is a bit harsh. If the kick isn't blocked (or if Mason hadn't missed the earlier FG attempt), game is over.

[superfan]

There is an interesting article on luck in the NFL here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/12/luckiest-teams-through-week-15.html

The author crunches a number of key statistics and has developed a formula to determine how many games a team "should" have won based on the stats, and attributes the difference between this number and actual wins as "luck". His methods are debatable, but the results are certainly interesting.

By his calculations, in 2007 Green Bay was the "luckiest" team in the league. GB "should" have won 10.2 games but won 13, and the +2.8 margin was the largest positive margin last season.

In 2008, using the same calculations, GB is the "unluckiest" team in the league. Through week 15, GB "should" have won 7.9 games but won 5, and the -2.9 margin is the largest negative margin through 15 games. After the Bear debacle, I expect this margin to increase.

Also of note - last year the Jets were the 31st team in the league in terms of luck, this year they are 1st. The article mentions, somewhat tongue in cheek, that perhaps his model measures intangible "Favreness" rather than luck.

[HarveyWallbangers]

That is pretty interesting. His conclusion: we should have gone 10-6 last year, but went 13-3. This year, we should have been 8-6 after 14 games, but we were 5-9.

[Guiness]

I saw this on another forum but I'm not positive it is a fact:

"The Bears block was an illegal play. We have been penalized for lining up in the center gap facing the center. The Bears put guys in both center/guard gaps and plowed the snapper (Goode) and he ended up on his back. It's an illegal play. The rule is to protect the long-snapper. You can't touch him until his head comes up."

I'm sure MM will send this as well as a couple other instances to NY and we'll get a letter apologizing for the zebras missing more calls...

Never heard the 'until his head comes up' rule. Anyone know for sure?

Is it like the rule that states you can't hit a punter while his leg's in the air - which is why you've got these punters with monster follow-throughs, where they basically hop around on one foot for a full second?

[sharpe1027]

Never heard the 'until his head comes up' rule. Anyone know for sure?

Is it like the rule that states you can't hit a punter while his leg's in the air - which is why you've got these punters with monster follow-throughs, where they basically hop around on one foot for a full second?

The Packers got (inccorectly) flagged for this, last year I think. As I understand it, the rule is just about how you line up (can't be directly over the long snapper), what you do after the snap is fair game.

[Fosco33]

"Roughing the Snapper (15 yards and an automatic first down, all levels) - on a punt or field goal attempt, the center is allowed to regain his balance and assume a protective position before he is contacted by the defense."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football_rules

This rule was also enacted in '06...
• During a field goal attempt or a PAT, any defensive player within one yard of the line of scrimmage at the snap must have his helmet outside the snapper’s shoulder pad. This will provide protection to the snapper, who is in a defenseless position. Penalty: Illegal formation, loss of five yards.
Reason for the change: Player safety.

[denverYooper]

There is an interesting article on luck in the NFL here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/12/luckiest-teams-through-week-15.html

The author crunches a number of key statistics and has developed a formula to determine how many games a team "should" have won based on the stats, and attributes the difference between this number and actual wins as "luck". His methods are debatable, but the results are certainly interesting.

By his calculations, in 2007 Green Bay was the "luckiest" team in the league. GB "should" have won 10.2 games but won 13, and the +2.8 margin was the largest positive margin last season.

In 2008, using the same calculations, GB is the "unluckiest" team in the league. Through week 15, GB "should" have won 7.9 games but won 5, and the -2.9 margin is the largest negative margin through 15 games. After the Bear debacle, I expect this margin to increase.

Also of note - last year the Jets were the 31st team in the league in terms of luck, this year they are 1st. The article mentions, somewhat tongue in cheek, that perhaps his model measures intangible "Favreness" rather than luck.

Football Outsiders has the Pack's estimated wins at 7.8 to week 15.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2008/week-15-dvoa-ratings

[Partial]

Does he provide a method to his madness? Is he a certified actuary?

[BallHawk]

Does he provide a method to his madness? Is he a certified actuary?

No. He's a guy. Just like everybody else in the sports world. Just a guy.

[Fritz]

Like the Packers' defensive linemen and linebackers?

[Gunakor]

Does he provide a method to his madness? Is he a certified actuary?

Are you arguing his theory, in either case? I think I have to agree with him, both last year AND this year. Last year, the ball bounced our way nearly every single time. This year... Jarrett Bush gets blocked into a punt and makes the momentum changing turnover.

[Rastak]

Does he provide a method to his madness? Is he a certified actuary?

Are you arguing his theory, in either case? I think I have to agree with him, both last year AND this year. Last year, the ball bounced our way nearly every single time. This year... Jarrett Bush gets blocked into a punt and makes the momentum changing turnover.

I subscribe to the Tex theory that it's all pretty much luck. The Lions sure have been having bad luck the last many years.

[Freak Out]

You have to be smart enough to avoid those bad luck situations like that dumbass Bush.