No Such Thing as Bad Luck? Talk To Ryan Grant

[texaspackerbacker]

I've always been a big proponent of the idea that bad luck is a major factor in a variety of NFL outcomes--injuries, near misses, officials' calls, unlikely great plays by opponents, etc.

Well, yesterday's replay that overturned Grant's 80 yard TD run--down by contact--apparently correct, but really really close--cost him $1.95 million .

According to the JSOnline article, he would have gotten a $1.35 million bonus for reaching 1,250 yards--he ended up with 1,203, and he would have gotten a $600,000 bonus for being in the top five rushers--he finished 35 yards behind Matt Forte.

I call that bad luck (for Grant, at least)--the same kind of gremlin that has ruined this whole season for the Packers.

[KYPack]

Re: No Such Thing as Bad Luck? Talk To Ryan Grant

I've always been a big proponent of the idea that bad luck is a major factor in a variety of NFL outcomes--injuries, near misses, officials' calls, unlikely great plays by opponents, etc.

Well, yesterday's replay that overturned Grant's 80 yard TD run--down by contact--apparently correct, but really really close--cost him $1.95 million .

According to the JSOnline article, he would have gotten a $1.35 million bonus for reaching 1,250 yards--he ended up with 1,203, and he would have gotten a $600,000 bonus for being in the top five rushers--he finished 35 yards behind Matt Forte.

I call that bad luck (for Grant, at least)--the same kind of gremlin that has ruined this whole season for the Packers.

I know you are into "bad luck" as the root cause of GB's trouble. I disagree with that idea. If things are so tight that a lucky bounce causes you victory, you allowed the game to be too close.

Lombardi was big into the "you make your own breaks" theory.

JSO seems off on this article.

Grant finished 9th in rushing.

5 Thomas Jones NYJ RB 290 18.1 1,312 4.5 82.0 13 59T 63 21.7
6 Steve Slaton HOU RB 268 16.8 1,282 4.8 80.1 9 71T 60 22.4 13 7 Matt Forte CHI RB 316 19.8 1,238 3.9 77.4 8 50T 63 19.9 8 2
8 Chris Johnson TEN RB 251 16.7 1,228 4.9 81.9 9 66T 54 21.5 9
9 Ryan Grant GB RB 312 19.5 1,203 3.9 75.2 4 57 53 17.0 6 1 4

He needed another 110 yards to surpass Jones for fifth.

So what if he finished 35 yards behind Forte. Forte was in 7th place. 1283 would have gotten Grant into 6th place.

He would have gotten the 1250 and raised his yds per carry over 4, but would have not gotten into the top 5.

Bad luck, eh?

[retailguy]

I think it would have been 5th - in the NFC, not the NFL.

I'm still stunned that Grant ran for that many yards. WHEN? He sat on my fantasy bench all year because he was too unpredictable.

[KYPack]

I think it would have been 5th - in the NFC, not the NFL.

I'm still stunned that Grant ran for that many yards. WHEN? He sat on my fantasy bench all year because he was too unpredictable.

Yer right, RG.

it was NFC.

His agent should have made the stipulation to 5 in the NFC North!

Then he could have been lucky.

[DonHutson]

It's not bad luck. He just should've had a skinnier ass.

[Jimx29]

near misses = hits, eh?

[bobblehead]

Seriously tex, your starting to sound a lot like a democrat. Its not my fault I'm broke, I just have bad luck. My alarm clock never goes off and I lost my job...just unlucky.

If RG weren't a bum all season long that "close" play wouldn't have been relevant. If the above democrat had bought a new alarm clock after the first time s/he would be employed.

[]{ilr]3]

I dont know all the details of his contract but its just as likely it went down like this

Maybe if he hadnt have held out he would have been in better football shape. He would not have gotten injured at the beginning of the year and would have helped the packers win more games by rushing for 1500 yards. And perhaps making back much more money in bonuses than trying to get more upfront which was why he held out in the first place.

Poor unlucky bastard.

Really I just hate asswipe agents. Grant should take a stick and beat 1.5 Million out of his agent.

[Noodle]

I'm with Tex on this. I know you make your own luck to some extent, but I've been in enough close games at various levels of competition that turned on damn blind luck, more often in my team's favor than not, that there's no way I could argue otherwise.

I consider injuries an item of luck, of the bad variety. Was there something Brady could have done to avoid his injury? No, just bad damn luck.

That's why, when the luck gods are smiling on you like they did last year to GB, you've got to carpe diem. Because the luck gods will find someone else to embrace next year.

[bobblehead]

I agree that injuries are often luck. But Grant getting the rock 300+ times and not cracking a measly 1250 yards is NOT luck.

Also some guys bodies are not designed to handle the riggers of the NFL and that is not luck when they get hurt either. Brady, yea bad luck.

Most of what people call luck can be directly attributed to choices they make. I am not excusing myself, I have made bad choices in my life at times. The resulting negative effects are not bad luck. I've made good choices. The resulting benefits are not good luck. Some lady switched lanes going 55 in a 45 in a 15 yard window and hit my car....that was bad luck for me, but not for her. She caused her "luck" by driving like an idiot.

[Guiness]

I don't buy the luck thing either. One game, one play, etc, can be attributed to luck. I'm sure if you wanted to look at it the other way, you could find a play where he was down by contact, but didn't get whistled, or a play where an OL didn't get called for a blatant hold.

As stated here, he had his carries, had his chance(s). You could also argue he was lucky to get as many yards as he did, with the amount of time he was out.

[Bretsky]

I don't buy the luck thing either. One game, one play, etc, can be attributed to luck. I'm sure if you wanted to look at it the other way, you could find a play where he was down by contact, but didn't get whistled, or a play where an OL didn't get called for a blatant hold.

As stated here, he had his carries, had his chance(s). You could also argue he was lucky to get as many yards as he did, with the amount of time he was out.

Pack got several breaks against the Lions; we were lucky to win