The Turning Point in the Ted Thompson Era

[HarveyWallbangers]

Players like Reggie White and Deion Sanders don't hit the market anymore. Not with the franchise tags to slap on them. Guys like Nate Clements, Charles Woodson, and Michael Turner are about the best we can hope for.

I can't get over the fact that all of the Super Bowl champions in recent years have had very few big money FAs.

The Giants had Plaxico Burress and Antonio Pierce.

The Colts didn't have any.

The Steelers didn't really have any. James Farrior was probably the biggest money, and he didn't sign a blockbuster deal (3y/$5.4M deal in 2002).

The Patriots first Super Bowl team didn't have many, but they did sprinkle a couple in before their next two championships. They have actually had less success (at least in terms of Super Bowl titles) since they started signing big money FAs.

I do buy that Thompson generally builds through the draft. I don't buy that Thompson doesn't go after available big name players. He had the highest bid for LaVarr Arrington and Adam Vinatieri, and he appeared to have deals in place for Randy Moss and Tony Gonzalez (in trade attempts).

He does need to be active this offseason though. Our front seven won't fix itself just from improved health and the draft. I'm not too worried about the other positions though.

[SlimPickens]

I didn't realize we had a new QB in 2007.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Looking into Mike Nolan's career as a DC more:

1993 NYG - #1 (points allowed)
1994 NYG - #8 (points allowed)
1995 NYG - #15 (points allowed)
1996 NYG - #10 (points allowed)
1997 WAS - #8 (points allowed)
1998 WAS - #24 (points allowed)
1999 WAS - #24 (points allowed)
2000 NYJ - #19 (points allowed)
2002 BAL - #19 (points allowed)
2003 BAL - #6 (points allowed)
2004 BAL - #6 (points allowed)

In 11 years as DC, his defenses have been on average #12.7 in the league. Not bad. Not phenomenal. Not sure what to make of the guy. His defenses were good with a lot of talent in Baltimore. His defenses weren't very good when he didn't have as much talent in Washington and with the Jets. His defenses with the Giants were good. Not sure about the talent.

[gbgary]

I didn't realize we had a new QB in 2007.

who said we did?

[HarveyWallbangers]

This scares me.

Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.

[Fritz]

Me too.

[MJZiggy]

Edit - I don't recall Ron Wolf ever saying that.... Not pointing fingers, I'm just sayin.....

Did we ever even hear about which FA which teams went after back then? Seems to me we only heard about it as the ink was drying--then we got the great story about the call from God.

[Packerarcher]

I suspect you're correct with this one. With that said, I also suspect TT will fortify the defense quite a bit this year.

How will he do that,it sure as hell won't be through free agency.

[mission]

This scares me.

Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he working with literally some of the worst personnel in the league at that point? I remember laughing at some of the guys the niners had on D ... maybe with more experienced guys, this is something that could work...

I'm not really behind the guy at all, just trying to get the right context here ...

That could be like saying Timmy's batting average improved dramatically once he dropped from Little League to T-Ball ...

[vince]

Here's a column by Mike Woods that fits well with this thread. He's always been cynical of TT and MM, and this article is no different, but if the Packers fail in the win-loss column again next year, the kitchen will definitely be hot.

Next moves will define Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy

Give Mike McCarthy credit for this: he knows his job is on the line and has acted accordingly.

Whether distancing himself from nearly his entire defensive staff will achieve the desired result is something only time will tell. But he understood time was no longer an ally, his defense took a significant step back this season and if meaningful improvement was not realized next season, it would be his head on the chopping block.

While he pinpointed five scapegoats on defense — headlined by coordinator Bob Sanders — remember it was McCarthy who hired all of them to begin with. This presents two problems; faith in him making the right choices this time won't be high as he has admitted he blew six hires (or seven if you believe special teams coach Mike Stock didn't retire voluntarily).

His second problem is he best avoid mirrors when pointing fingers.

The rumored leader in the clubhouse to assume control as defensive coordinator is linebackers coach Winston Moss, who also owns the title of assistant head coach and was interviewed by the Rams for their head coaching position. Moss may be the choice though if he is he cannot be considered a convincing option, as the Packers linebackers were less than stellar, even with Nick Barnett in the lineup.

What we can't be sure is if these moves buy McCarthy any more time. But rest assured this will be his last chance to get it right. You would imagine the defense would have to show significant improvement and the Packers would have to finish .500 or better for him to survive another year.

That doesn't leave a lot of time, to not only find people but also find the right people. The fact that McCarthy is edging toward the hot seat will not work to his advantage because no coach, especially quality ones with eyes on advancement, want one-and-done on their resume. Couple that with the fact that you have five teams looking for new head coaches — and possibly a sixth with the Rams — and the race to locate and hire quality coaches will be ultra competitive.

These coaches will have choices, and they will certainly understand that casting their lot with a new coach will afford them a tad more job security than with a guy who has just one winning season in three years and is operating under the stigma of perhaps not being as good as originally thought.

Suffice it to say McCarthy has his work cut out. His next hires will make or break his coaching career in Green Bay. While the importance of the defensive hires are obvious, so too is the choice for next special teams coach as well as the strength and conditioning coach.

That last one may seem a bit odd but any team that hopes to achieve success must avoid wearing down as the season progresses. We don't know what McCarthy's issues were with Rock Gullickson, but somewhere in the equation must have been dissatisfaction with the team's physical preparedness.

It would have been better for McCarthy to stand up and say what his problems were with his defensive coaches and why they were let go. It would be nice to know if he believes a change in scheme is necessary. It would be nice to know what exactly he's looking for as he begins his search to hire people to help him save his job.

But McCarthy has opted to stay mum on the matter, leaving everyone to simply put faith into believing he knows what he's doing. But when he has already admitted to being wrong on so many of his previous hires, that's hard to do.

[pbmax]

This scares me.

Interestingly, Nolan’s scheme in San Francisco bombed this season because of the confusion caused by so many varying looks and substitutions. The Niners’ defense experienced a dramatic turnaround after Mike Singletary greatly simplified Nolan’s scheme.

Well, it may be music to those who want less vanilla.

I do not put much stock into these types of explanations, they are too simple.

Bates scheme was supposed to work because it was simple and straightforward and the athletes could just react instead of thinking. Well, that's great, if you have the athletes that are better than the opposing O. Kind of circular, no?

Next year, halfway through the season, perhaps the following year after the schedule gets tougher, you will hear criticism that Singletary is to simple, too stubborn, etc.

You need a good scheme, with coaches that can be flexible, and a guy to get you the players to play that scheme. I think M3 has proven to be that kind of offensive guy. My bet is that T2 is better at acquiring talent than Sanders was at adjusting his scheme to injuries. The challenge, is for McCarthy to find on defense the same kind of guy he and Philbin are on offense.

[Fritz]

Woods's column is good. This season was a step back - a big one - because usually teams are seen as on the rise or on the decline, and after 13-3 most folks thought this team should have been able to win at least nine or ten games.

MM - and TT, I think, too - are on shorter leashes now. I think they get next year, for sure, and maybe one year after that if there are again massive injuries but the team improves somewhat. But if they aren't at least 10-6 and in the playoffs in 2010 - at least - then they are gone.

MM needs to get this one right, this set of hirings. It's his last shot. It won't be like Marinelli in Detroit, who fired a coordinator a year for three years running.