McShay predicting a frustrating draft?

[Waldo]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

If we stayed put I gotta believe TT would take Oher. The senior bowl helped his stock. Even though he got beat a few times early, he was supposedly a pleasure for coaches to work with and took to coaching really well. He didn't make the same mistake twice. He is a physically perfect LT (possibly the best physical specimen this decade), TT takes chances on guys that need to be coached up a bit moreso than on guys that aren't ideal physical specimens.

[Fritz]

You make a good point, Waldo. I know some folks here will be irked if TT trades down, but if you can slide down three or four or even five spots and still get a top-notch player, and pick up a second rounder, why not?

Raji is likely gone. The OSU corner will possibly be gone. Those is the 12 - 14 range have much promise. Why not trade down unless someone you love is sitting at #9?

And I'd be fine with them drafting a left tackle, by the way. Kinda need those guys, and if we can get one who can sit for a year and learn, so much the better. Bring cliffy back one more year.

[cheesner]

How'd that work out for them???

Not well. But that is not the point.

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

A potential superstar CB has less value to a team with a good secondary and an awful run D; and more value to a team with the reverse situation. So if TT is sitting there with Pick #9 and a team desperate for a CB at #12. If TT has 4 players ranked the same when it is time for his pick, and all at positions of need, what would be his price to drop back? A 5th perhaps? And what would #12 be willing to trade to get the one player that is will make a huge difference? A 2nd? The GM at #12 knows he may have only one more year to turn around his team or get fired. What is he willing to give up if he thinks it will allow him to retain his job?

[Waldo]

How'd that work out for them???

Not well. But that is not the point.

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

A potential superstar CB has less value to a team with a good secondary and an awful run D; and more value to a team with the reverse situation. So if TT is sitting there with Pick #9 and a team desperate for a CB at #12. If TT has 4 players ranked the same when it is time for his pick, and all at positions of need, what would be his price to drop back? A 5th perhaps? And what would #12 be willing to trade to get the one player that is will make a huge difference? A 2nd? The GM at #12 knows he may have only one more year to turn around his team or get fired. What is he willing to give up if he thinks it will allow him to retain his job?

A CB isn't who teams would be eyeing up for a potential trade up if this is how the draft plays out. Franchise QB>>>>>>>Star CB, especially when evaluating the value of our pick, knowing with near certainty that the QB will come off the board at the next pick, whereas the CB may continue to slide.

[Lurker64]

GMs do not use trade value charts. Every trade opportunity is looked at on a case by case basis. The only way at TVC would work is if every team had every player ranked the same and was at about the same strength.

I believe that a lot of GMs use some variant of a trade value chart to actually figure out how many 6th round picks need to be swapped for fourth round picks, etc. to make a trade reasonable, and some of the picky details, but nobody's actually bound by the chart (since almost all trades are "won" by the chart by a factor of 10-100 points). Teams offer things that are nuts by the chart all the time (like when Cleveland was trying to trade up for Quinn), but their are certain truisms that GMs tend to follow like "The mth pick in the nth round this year is approximately worth the mth pick in the (n-1)th pick next year".

I believe actual trades are judged on the basis of teams establishing tiers of players (like what NFP published). A trade down is good if it involves reasonable compensation of picks, and you stand a reasonable chance of landing a player that's currently in your highest remaining tier. As in, "if you have four players right now ranked about the same, trading down three picks is a good idea if you're fairly compensated." Trading out of your current tier to a lower one is the sort of trade down that requires exceptional compensation from the team that's trading up (like what Cleveland had to give up for Winslow).

[Joemailman]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like any of the teams drafting in the early to mid teens are likely to be looking to spend a high 1st round pick on a QB.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Tampa Bay at #19 might be interested, but I don't know if TT would want to move down that far. If TB would offer up a 2nd, he might.

[Waldo]

If this is how the draft plays out, at our pick Oher, Sanchez, Maybin and Orapko will be available as well as Jenkins, Wells, and Moreno.

With SF a likely landing spot for Sanchez in this scenario, we are in the trade spot. Anybody but SF that wants Sanchez will be looking to trade with us to get him. SF might as well if TT gets an offer, then calls SF and tells them that if they want Sanchez, pony up a 3rd.

We can then drop back a few spots into the early teens and at least one of Oher, Maybin, Orapko, or Jenkins will be there. I wouldn't be too heartbroken if we took Moreno or Wells either. If we went back to the mid teens, Cushing is a real good option, he is a perfect 3-4 SOLB.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like any of the teams drafting in the early to mid teens are likely to be looking to spend a high 1st round pick on a QB.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Tampa Bay at #19 might be interested, but I don't know if TT would want to move down that far. If TB would offer up a 2nd, he might.

But it would be easy to move back up to #13. The Skins traded away their whole draft, they need picks and surely want to trade down from #13.

It would be crazy to have the whole top of their draft, but the Jets may be in the QB market as well. New coaches like to get their franchise QB ASAP. Doesn't hurt that the Jets HC was part of a team last year that traded up to get a raw first rounder and he worked out great for them.

[DonHutson]

A few random thoughts on points made so far:

Detroit - I have no doubt they would love to trade out of that pick. But who would want it? Nobody else wants to spend that money on a QB either, and there's no obvious best player in this draft. I have no doubt Schwartz would love to go D with that pick. But who would they take? Raji? Curry? They probably should go OL, but while there are 3 or 4 very good ones, there isn't really one obvious best one. Not to mention an OL doesn't put asses in the seats after 0-16. In the absence of any obvious best player available, I think Stafford or Sanchez are going to be almost stuffed down their throats. They probably take Stafford due to the prototype arm, etc.

Sanchez - So where does that leave him? Maybe KC, but I really doubt it. I think they'll give Thigpen a shot and try put some talent around him. Probably OL, or maybe they want to put Raji next to Glenn Dorsey. Maybe Sanchez goes to SF, but we've seen the pattern lately. Maybe one QB goes high, the others kind of drift down to where they become affordable. I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez dropped all the way to the Vikings. I just think he's in that Rodgers/Quinn class where teams think they can get someone almost as good in the 2nd or 3rd, so why bother? Just my impression so far.

Ted's pick - In 4 drafts, he's played it rather safe on his top pick with the high character, high production guy three times (Rodgers, Hawk, and Nelson). If he plays it safe again, look for Jenkins or Orakpo (assuming the OL and Raji are gone). He'll roll the dice on a less polished athlete after the first pick, but to me he seems to hedge is bet on the first one, for better or worse.

Jenkins and the 3-4 - Valid point re: Harris and zone coverage. But they're also saying Pittsburgh has used more bump and run in their D in recent years, and Capers says if that's Al's stong suit they will try to utilize it. So yeah, Jenkins might help. He would surely be useful in a year or two. But in terms of the pieces we need to make this D go right now, I think we could live with our current DB's.

[bobblehead]

I'm going on record, TT will either trade up, or pick at 9 a LT for the future. Its too valuable of a position to trust a declining clifton at and College might end up at RT.

NO defense drafted until the second round.

[SnakeLH2006]

Crabtree won't fall that far, and I can't see Brown going in the top 10... I guess I could see him going in the top 10, but I don't consider him a top 10 pick.

Been looking at a ton of mocks too, and Crabtree is everyone's Larry Fitz this year. He'll be gone by Seattle.

Saw a decent mock draft here that predicts the BJ we need yet.

And this is some funny stuff from the dude who wrote it (read what he said about the Lions for ex.).

http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php

Good stuff...I'm hoping either BJ or a top notch OT, but been saying that for many months now.