"COLE/CANTY MAY END UP ELSEWHERE

[Patler]

With the current CBA in doubt, all bets are off in regards to "future" free agents. What happens if we save money now, and then we have an un-capped year in 2010 and beyond? Also, if there is an agreement, the cap ALWAYS goes up so to say we would'nt be able to afford our guys later is not really true.

All bets are not off until it is certain there will be no cap. Until then, you absolutely have to operate as if there will be one, or you can cripple yourself if the CBA gets resolved and the cap remains. The question is not what happens if there is no cap, that is easy to adapt to. The question has to be what happens if there continues to be a cap? If the Packers spend money now expecting there to be no cap in 2010 and there is one, they could be faced with losing a bunch of players they would really want to keep.

It is a mistake to assume the salary cap will go up each year in the immediate future. The reason the NFL is faced with the possibility of 2010 as an uncapped year is because the owners terminated the CBA early. The reason they terminated early is because they believe too much of their income is going to player compensation. They agreed to try a new formula for calculating the cap under the current CBA. In return the NFLPA agreed to let them terminate early and reopen discussions on the formula. The new formula resulted in a cap increase of 18.6% in 2006. Typical increases before and after 2006 have been in the neighborhood of 5.5% to about 7%. 1998 was huge, 26.5%, but that was due to a bidding war for broadcast rights that brought in a huge increase of income. The year before it had gone up just 1.6%. If the owners have substance to their position, I doubt a cap decrease will occur, but a "freeze" could take effect for a season or two as a new formula takes effect.

With the current realities of the economy, there are unlikely to be ticket price increases of substance for many teams. TV and radio stations are having harder times selling advertising and costs for ads could also decline. The result very well could be negligible increases in income for the league. With no increase in income, there is no cap increase regardless of the formula being used.

[KYPack]

With the current CBA in doubt, all bets are off in regards to "future" free agents. What happens if we save money now, and then we have an un-capped year in 2010 and beyond? Also, if there is an agreement, the cap ALWAYS goes up so to say we would'nt be able to afford our guys later is not really true.

All bets are not off until it is certain there will be no cap. Until then, you absolutely have to operate as if there will be one, or you can cripple yourself if the CBA gets resolved and the cap remains. The question is not what happens if there is no cap, that is easy to adapt to. The question has to be what happens if there continues to be a cap? If the Packers spend money now expecting there to be no cap in 2010 and there is one, they could be faced with losing a bunch of players they would really want to keep.

It is a mistake to assume the salary cap will go up each year in the immediate future. The reason the NFL is faced with the possibility of 2010 as an uncapped year is because the owners terminated the CBA early. The reason they terminated early is because they believe too much of their income is going to player compensation. They agreed to try a new formula for calculating the cap under the current CBA. In return the NFLPA agreed to let them terminate early and reopen discussions on the formula. The new formula resulted in a cap increase of 18.6% in 2006. Typical increases before and after 2006 have been in the neighborhood of 5.5% to about 7%. 1998 was huge, 26.5%, but that was due to a bidding war for broadcast rights that brought in a huge increase of income. The year before it had gone up just 1.6%. If the owners have substance to their position, I doubt a cap decrease will occur, but a "freeze" could take effect for a season or two as a new formula takes effect.

With the current realities of the economy, there are unlikely to be ticket price increases of substance for many teams. TV and radio stations are having harder times selling advertising and costs for ads could also decline. The result very well could be negligible increases in income for the league. With no increase in income, there is no cap increase regardless of the formula being used.

OK

I think I'm finally starting to get the drift here.

Man, If I wasn't on Rats, I wouldn't know what the hell was happening with the CBA being terminated early.

The owners probably want to change the formula so less of the revenue goes to player salaries (duh). If they push for that, a strike is a damned near certainty.

Also, does anyone think that the owners will push to be able to spend less than the minimum? It looks like Tampa is trying to do just that. This season the minimum you have to spend is around 104 mil. I think the Glazers want to be able to tap into that bread. They can now add players and be right at the minimum. then next season, make more cuts and be way under.

[Lurker64]

Also, does anyone think that the owners will push to be able to spend less than the minimum? It looks like Tampa is trying to do just that. This season the minimum you have to spend is around 104 mil. I think the Glazers want to be able to tap into that bread. They can now add players and be right at the minimum. then next season, make more cuts and be way under.

Well, one of the poison pills built in to the 2010 season to get the players to the bargaining table quickly is that the 2010 season will have no minimums for player salary or total team salary. So next year, barring a new CBA, teams will be able to spend as little as they like; and likely will be cutting every veteran with an ugly contract where they are terribly underperforming, since there will be no cap repurcussions for doing so.

[Patler]

It is very easy for the players to assume that no salary cap means the teams can pay as much as they want to. It is more difficult to accept that for some teams it might mean they can pay as little as they can get away with and still field a team that fans will come to watch. The result of no salary cap could very well be a small number of extremely high paid players, but a lot of players making less than they do in the current situation.

It really is an unknown for both the owners and the players. In the end, I think it is a situation both will want to avoid.

[Lurker64]

Patler-

I recall hearing that without a new CBA, the NFL draft becomes illegal at some point as it's an antitrust violation, so all eligible college players can negotiate with NFL teams as free agents. Do you know when that would become true? Is (barring a new CBA) this the last draft, or is there one after the 2010 season as well?

[Patler]

Patler-

I recall hearing that without a new CBA, the NFL draft becomes illegal at some point as it's an antitrust violation, so all eligible college players can negotiate with NFL teams as free agents. Do you know when that would become true? Is (barring a new CBA) this the last draft, or is there one after the 2010 season as well?

The CBA provides for a draft through the year following the Final Year of the CBA. The Final Year as it now stands is 2010, which means there will be a draft in 2011.

[Fritz]

My first reaction is that southern teams and big city teams would do best in a non-draft NFL, but when you look at the college picture, northern teams like Ohio State do as well as California/warm weather places. You just have to pay the players enough money to want to come to your campus.

Er, city.