Sobering Stats re: Cooper's Injury

[Patler]

A few decades ago, Cooper's injury was considered career ending. Not so now, and as Rodgers explained a few years ago, surgical techniques are constantly improving. That said, the stats are a bit sobering, especially for Cooper. From an AI summary:

A multi‑sport study found 72.4% returned to play again following torn Achilles tendon repairs.
A study of 676 NFL players found only 66.2% returned to play again.
Only 27.1% were perceived to have regained previous performance levels.
Players returning from torn Achilles repairs had significantly shorter overall careers, on average.
Among NFL players, running backs and linebackers showed worse results than players at other positions.

I was not able to determine how far back in time the NFL study went, or if it included many players injured before surgical repair techniques began to achieve successful results.

[texaspackerbacker]

That didn't exactly sound right, so I Googled "athletes with torn achilles". Mostly the articles talked about basketball players - a sport that arguably requires more speed and mobility than football, but there were some football players too and some pretty far back time-wise - well before the modern surgical techniques spoken of. For example, Dominique Wilkins returned from his achilles tear and scored 29.9 points the next season. Kobe Bryant also did pretty well. The most direct comparison to Cooper might be Terrell Suggs, also mostly a linebacker. He returned 5 1/2 months after his injury and played effectively. He had a 17 year NFL career, 7 of them after his achilles injury.

I also read that as much as a fourth of players with achilles have their careers ended, although the article didn't give any examples. The same article said return from a complete achilles tear either with or without surgery is usually 6-12 months, 4-9 months if it is a partial tear.

Do we know if Cooper had a complete tear or just partial? I would think being as young as he is would bode well for a successful comeback for Cooper next year and beyond.

[pbmax]

That didn't exactly sound right, so I Googled "athletes with torn achilles". Mostly the articles talked about basketball players - a sport that arguably requires more speed and mobility than football, but there were some football players too and some pretty far back time-wise - well before the modern surgical techniques spoken of. For example, Dominique Wilkins returned from his achilles tear and scored 29.9 points the next season. Kobe Bryant also did pretty well. The most direct comparison to Cooper might be Terrell Suggs, also mostly a linebacker. He returned 5 1/2 months after his injury and played effectively. He had a 17 year NFL career, 7 of them after his achilles injury.

I also read that as much as a fourth of players with achilles have their careers ended, although the article didn't give any examples. The same article said return from a complete achilles tear either with or without surgery is usually 6-12 months, 4-9 months if it is a partial tear.

Do we know if Cooper had a complete tear or just partial? I would think being as young as he is would bode well for a successful comeback for Cooper next year and beyond.

Suggs was an EDGE, he rarely dropped of the line of scrimmage. Pass rusher first, second and third. Occasional drop to coverage like Peppers in GB.

[texaspackerbacker]

Edge aka Outside Linebacker. Cooper was rushing the passer or so it seemed when he had his non-contact injury. Either way, it's about the same amount of athleticism required, not like O line for example with relatively immobile yokozumas.

[Patler]

That didn't exactly sound right, so I Googled "athletes with torn achilles". Mostly the articles talked about basketball players - a sport that arguably requires more speed and mobility than football, but there were some football players too and some pretty far back time-wise - well before the modern surgical techniques spoken of. For example, Dominique Wilkins returned from his achilles tear and scored 29.9 points the next season. Kobe Bryant also did pretty well. The most direct comparison to Cooper might be Terrell Suggs, also mostly a linebacker. He returned 5 1/2 months after his injury and played effectively. He had a 17 year NFL career, 7 of them after his achilles injury.

I also read that as much as a fourth of players with achilles have their careers ended, although the article didn't give any examples. The same article said return from a complete achilles tear either with or without surgery is usually 6-12 months, 4-9 months if it is a partial tear.

Do we know if Cooper had a complete tear or just partial? I would think being as young as he is would bode well for a successful comeback for Cooper next year and beyond.

None of that differs from what I wrote. In fact, in what I found, Wilkins, Suggs, Bryant and others were mentioned as examples of players who did have good results. That doesn't change the overall stats. Somewhat surprisingly, NBA players had generally better results than NFL players.

[NewsBruin]

On the good side, the ortho-surgical world's always evolving and everyone involved has incentives for better results.

Aaron's surgery used smaller tools, leaving smaller wounds with less scar tissue and faster time from surgery to starting rehab. That's how it's progressing, but it's still going to take Cooper at least most of a year to have the Achilles anchor in and survive the explosiveness of full burst on a snap or changing directions with 200+ pounds of person and gear.

I just want him to be all right and intelligently aggressive in rehab.

[bobblehead]

Dre Greenlaw would be the direct comp. He blew his in the Owl. Returned middle of 2024 forcing former packer De'Vondre Campbell to walk off the field mid game. Played 2 games and had to sit back down. Stumbled through 2025. Back to SF this season where they say he is "still recovering" from all his injuries. Sounds like he is improving, but nowhere near the elite player he was before the injury. This timeline sounds about perfect for Coop to have a modest ok, somewhat healthy season in a couple years so Gutes can overpay him before his injuries prove to be too much.

Edit: The big difference is that SF cut bait when it was clear he would probably never be the same. GB will probably give him the Bak/Jaire treatment of paying him for a lot of unproductive seasons before letting him walk. Given his youth he may recover and be solid, but it won't be next season.

[Fritz]

I think a part of the bigger picture in all this is that human beings who play professional sports today are (thanks to nutrition science and body training science and an evolving world in which the focus is on practice and improvement constantly) probably over-developed. Their bodies are like tightly strung guitar strings, pitched for maximum results but always on the cusp of snapping. Many of the achilles injuries, for example, occur without contact. Cooper's was that. When Watson was hurt, same. Parsons I think too.

This is the result of pushing the human body too far. They can do incredible, incredible things, but it comes at a cost.

[call_me_ishmael]

This is going to be an interesting one. I do think that surgery being cleaner, his age, and BPC 157 becoming a thing the past few years will give this a better than historical shot at success. Hopefully this dude goes and spends some time in Europe and avoids drug tests and gets the Kobe treatment.

[Joemailman]

I think a part of the bigger picture in all this is that human beings who play professional sports today are (thanks to nutrition science and body training science and an evolving world in which the focus is on practice and improvement constantly) probably over-developed. Their bodies are like tightly strung guitar strings, pitched for maximum results but always on the cusp of snapping. Many of the achilles injuries, for example, occur without contact. Cooper's was that. When Watson was hurt, same. Parsons I think too.

This is the result of pushing the human body too far. They can do incredible, incredible things, but it comes at a cost.

Yep. Guys used to come to training camp to get in shape. Now they're expected to stay that way year round.

[texaspackerbacker]

None of that differs from what I wrote. In fact, in what I found, Wilkins, Suggs, Bryant and others were mentioned as examples of players who did have good results. That doesn't change the overall stats. Somewhat surprisingly, NBA players had generally better results than NFL players.

ok, but I haven't seen any counter examples either from you or from media pukes - good or great players, football, basketball or whatever who had achilles injuries and either had their career ended or took way over a year to come back or were drastically worse when they did come back. Overall stats, like PFF and similar crap, can be misleading, especially without specific examples.

[texaspackerbacker]

I think a part of the bigger picture in all this is that human beings who play professional sports today are (thanks to nutrition science and body training science and an evolving world in which the focus is on practice and improvement constantly) probably over-developed. Their bodies are like tightly strung guitar strings, pitched for maximum results but always on the cusp of snapping. Many of the achilles injuries, for example, occur without contact. Cooper's was that. When Watson was hurt, same. Parsons I think too.

This is the result of pushing the human body too far. They can do incredible, incredible things, but it comes at a cost.

True I guess. I say this without sarcasm (just to make that clear to bobblehead). Probably a lifestyle more like Fuzzy Thurston or Max McGee would work as good or better.

I of course am not a professional athlete, not even a talented amateur, but I've been practicing pretty strenuous stuff for well over 60 years and spitting in the face of nutrition science bullshit or body training crap, and I've literally never had any injury of consequence whatsoever, knee, ankle, calf, achilles, shoulder, nothing, not so much as a minor sprain.

[sharpe1027]

Here is AI assisted research. It's still not great:

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An Achilles tendon rupture remains one of the most career-altering orthopedic injuries in professional football. While surgical techniques and accelerated rehab protocols have significantly improved headline Return-to-Play (RTP) rates over the past two decades, sports medicine research demonstrates a stark difference between simply stepping back onto the field and regaining pre-injury performance or sustaining career longevity.

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What the Data & Clinical Studies Say

Modern orthopedic tracking of NFL players following Achilles repair reveals consistent trends:

• Initial Return-to-Play (RTP) Rate: Between 72% and 80% of NFL players return to play in at least one regular-season game. However, this varies widely by position:
  • Non-skill positions (e.g., offensive/defensive linemen) return at higher rates (up to ~75%).
  • Skill positions requiring elite burst (running backs and wide receivers) historically face return rates around 45% to 55%.
• Timeline: The typical return window averages 10 to 11.5 months (approx. 330–350 days).
• True Performance Recovery: Only ~27% of returning players regain their pre-injury baseline efficiency and production. Cohort data indicates an average ~20% injury-attributable performance drop in Year 1 post-injury beyond natural aging curves.
• Career Longevity:
  • An Achilles tear increases the risk of career termination by roughly 68%.
  • By Year 3 post-surgery, fewer than 30% to 35% of injured players remain active in the NFL.
  • Players average 1.0 to 1.4 fewer active seasons overall compared to matched peer controls.

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Why the Injury Diminishes Performance

The Achilles tendon serves as the primary mechanical spring for plantarflexion. Even after successful structural repair, players frequently battle:

• Loss of push-off force and eccentric stiffness: The triceps surae (calf complex) often experiences long-term atrophy and decreased motor recruitment.
• Compromised first-step burst: Positions relying on sudden deceleration, violent lateral cuts, and initial acceleration (RBs, DBs, edge rushers) show the steepest post-operative decline.

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Notable NFL Case Studies

1. Career-Ending or Truncated Comebacks

• Mikel Leshoure (RB, Lions – 2011)
  Drafted in Round 2 to be Detroit's workhorse, Leshoure tore his Achilles in training camp before playing a regular-season snap. While he played in 2012, he lacked his trademark collegiate burst (averaging 3.7 YPC), was phased out by 2013, and never played in the NFL again.
• Eric Berry (Safety, Chiefs – 2017)
  The All-Pro safety tore his Achilles in Week 1 of 2017. Following an arduous rehab, persistent heel and Achilles complications limited him to just two regular-season games and one playoff appearance in late 2018 before his career concluded.
• Arian Foster (RB, Texans/Dolphins – 2015)
  A four-time Pro Bowler whose game relied on exceptional cut patience and sudden explosion. After tearing his Achilles in October 2015, he joined Miami in 2016. Lingering soft-tissue compensations and diminished burst limited him to four games before he retired mid-season.
• LenDale White (RB, Titans/Broncos – 2010)
  Following 24 rushing touchdowns across 2007–2008 with Tennessee, White suffered a torn Achilles during Denver's 2010 preseason and never logged another regular-season snap.

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2. Returned to the Field, but Lost Pre-Injury Form

• James Robinson (RB, Jaguars – 2021)
  After a 1,414-scrimmage-yard rookie season in 2020, Robinson ruptured his Achilles in December 2021. He returned in an impressive nine months for 2022, but without his decisive initial burst, he was traded mid-season and shifted between practice squads without regaining a primary role.
• Marlon Mack (RB, Colts – 2020)
  Coming off a 1,091-yard, 8-TD campaign in 2019, Mack ruptured his Achilles in Week 1 of 2020. Upon returning in 2021, he lacked his previous breakaway gear, totaling under 200 rushing yards across the remainder of his career in backup/special-teams roles.
• Tarik Cohen (RB/Returner, Bears – 2022)
  While rehabbing a severe 2020 knee injury, Cohen suffered an Achilles rupture in May 2022. Despite extensive rehabilitation and practice squad stints with Carolina and the Jets, the combined loss of lateral explosion kept him off active game day rosters, leading to his retirement in 2024.
• Demaryius Thomas (WR, Broncos/Texans – 2011 & 2018)
  Thomas famously overcame a pre-draft Achilles tear to become an elite receiver in Denver, but a second tear on his opposite Achilles late in 2018 severely compromised his top-of-route separation. After a brief 2019 stint with the Jets, he stepped away from football.

[sharpe1027]

I think a part of the bigger picture in all this is that human beings who play professional sports today are (thanks to nutrition science and body training science and an evolving world in which the focus is on practice and improvement constantly) probably over-developed. Their bodies are like tightly strung guitar strings, pitched for maximum results but always on the cusp of snapping. Many of the achilles injuries, for example, occur without contact. Cooper's was that. When Watson was hurt, same. Parsons I think too.

This is the result of pushing the human body too far. They can do incredible, incredible things, but it comes at a cost.

I was skeptical of this common argument. It felt like the type of thing that feels right, but isn't necessary backed up by the facts. Here's what I found.
First, kigaments and tendons serve fundamentally different mechanical roles. Ligaments stabilize bone-to-bone joint translation during rotational torque; tendons transmit muscular contraction. Apples and oranges.

Second, high-load conditioning and muscular strength actually protect tendons by driving collagen remodeling and increasing structural stiffness. What actually causes them to fail isn't being "too strong"—it is asymptomatic pre-existing tissue degeneration, sudden workload spikes, and high-traction playing surfaces.
.

[texaspackerbacker]

So there indeed are a few examples of mostly lesser players who didn't come back 100% or even not at all.

I remain optimistic that Cooper will be 100% or very near it for the 2027 season.