Vote for who TT should draft. (2009)

[packrulz]

I've included candidates who might still be available when the Packers pick at #9, or, none of the above.

[hurleyfan]

I opted for none of the above.. I believe TT will not pick at #9, he'll be trading down and all these guys will be gone..

[Waldo]

I highly doubt TT trades down.

He's never crossed a tier line with a pick and we're right near the end of the top tier.

IMO it's gotta take exceptional value to trade down from where we are.

[red]

if all those guys are there, then i picked raji.

his position is way too important, and there are not a lot of guys out there that can play it

if, and thats a giant if, tt brings in smith and checks him out, and does all his homework on the guy, and if, he deems him to not be the giant shithead like he appears, then i wouldn't mind if he takes smith. the guy has a ton of talent and could be a solid or pro bowl tackle for years, if his head is on right

and i wouldn't mind jenkins either. i'm not too worried about the 40 time. the guy has proven that he can stay with guys and be a damn good corner. against top tier college talent

[Bretsky]

Vote "none of the above" for Michael Crabtree

[wist43]

Josh Freeman... coz it makes the least sense

[Waldo]

Josh Freeman... coz it makes the least sense

TT's drafting is not nearly as hard to understand as people think it is.

You have to keep a few things in mind:
TT highly values tape
TT highly values position prototype measurables (and severely downgrades otherwise)
TT highly values leaders and team captains
TT only moderately downgrades for injuries
TT seems age indifferent
TT highly values big guys
TT seems to downgrade guys slightly for playing too far from the ball.
He selects close to the BPA, especially in the first.

With that in mind, to construct an approximation of TT's board, start with a board based off production and tape (basically what the national lists looked like right after the final bowl game), try to fit the medical guys in where you think they would be if healthy.

Then modify per the combine. Upgrade the freaks 10-20 picks or so (Hood and Orakpo are the only true freaks (reps+vert+broad>80) in this class IMO). Downgrade everybody harshly based on position prototype measurables they don't meet, based on severity.

For RB's, weight must be 200-210 (haven't pinned it down), 10 yd split must be at least ~1.55.

For DE's, height must be ~6'4", arms must be 34" or longer, vert+broad+reps must equal 70 at least, good 10 yd split a bonus

For CB's, height must be 5'11", must jump well (35"+), must run in the 4.4's at least

For DT's, weight must be 300+, vert+broad+reps must equal 70 at least, arms must be 33" or longer

For OL's height must be at least 6'4", weight must be 300, SS must be at least 4.6, 3C must be at least 7.6, the longer arms the better

WR's must be 5'11, either run sub a sub 4.5 40 or sub 1.5 10, and be known for their hands.

QB's have to be at least 6'2", do well on the wonderlic, and be an accurate passer.

Downgrade all players that run slower than NFL average per unit weight (weight/height) in the 10 yd split

Give a downgrade to all players that were not team leaders
Give a small downgrade to all injured players or players with injury problems
Downgrade all OL who are not "tough guys" (all his OL have been known as being ruffians a little and play nasty).
Downgrade all legal problems attitude issues severely
Downgrade guys for playing too far from the ball (at least high in the draft)

At least that's what I've been able to decipher thus far.

With that in mind, you would have correctly been able to pin down a lot of TT's higher rated guys, and guys that he would definitely pass on.

Guys IMO TT has rated very highly:
J. Smith
Curry
Orakpo
Raji
Maybin

Guys not quite as high as you would think
Crabtree
Maclin
Jenkins
A. Smith
Monroe (still top 10)
Brown
Brace

OL to watch later:
Murtha
Wood
Unger
Parrish
Fulton
Bell

DL/OLB's to watch later:
Gilbert
Sidbury
Barwin
Moala
Scott
Pryor
Hill
Miller
Walters

Darkhorse - Ziggy Hood - He could unexpectedly (to pundits at least) be extremely high on TT's board. He passes every test with flying colors and is elite in all workout categories with a good frame for a swing T. TT watches the 10 yd split quite close, Ziggy posted the same time KGB and Ware did. His tape is so so, but had a great senior bowl, giving a clue that his coaching (or teammates, he's the one the opponents key on) were a big reason for his lack of elite production. Basically healthier than Harrell and better than him across the board.

[Zool]

If we draft a guy named Ziggy, will that automatically make MJ his biggest fan? If it happens will she change her title to Hood Rat?

[Lurker64]

If we draft a guy named Ziggy, will that automatically make MJ his biggest fan? If it happens will she change her title to Hood Rat?

His actual name is Evander, but he goes by Ziggy.

Waldo, do you really think Hood merits a high first by any metric? He seems like a guy who could be there in the 2nd.

[Zool]

If we draft a guy named Ziggy, will that automatically make MJ his biggest fan? If it happens will she change her title to Hood Rat?

His actual name is Evander, but he goes by Ziggy.

Waldo, do you really think Hood merits a high first by any metric? He seems like a guy who could be there in the 2nd.

I realize, but I just wanted to see if she will go by Hood Rat.

[mission]

If we draft a guy named Ziggy, will that automatically make MJ his biggest fan? If it happens will she change her title to Hood Rat?

His actual name is Evander, but he goes by Ziggy.

Waldo, do you really think Hood merits a high first by any metric? He seems like a guy who could be there in the 2nd.

I realize, but I just wanted to see if she will go by Hood Rat.

There's only one... reppin mah block, shawty

[Fritz]

Hood...Does he play for Mizzou?

[Waldo]

If we draft a guy named Ziggy, will that automatically make MJ his biggest fan? If it happens will she change her title to Hood Rat?

His actual name is Evander, but he goes by Ziggy.

Waldo, do you really think Hood merits a high first by any metric? He seems like a guy who could be there in the 2nd.

By tape alone he warranted a late 2nd, his team was pretty bad though, guys like him can be a little hidden (a la Jordy). Basically it was written about him pre-combine that he was a Kampman (even though Kamp isn't), a high motor, try hard guy that plays relentless, but with mediocre athleticism. He was a team captain and locker room leader.

At the senior bowl 5 guys really showed up and dominated, Mack, English, Hood, Raji, and Ayers. Mack is limited by position to very late first tops. All of them became first rounders based on superior play against their peers. Raji moved from the 20's to the top 10. Hood basically showed that he is coachable and that he stands out in the crowd and slid in to the bottom half of the first. He looked like a giant DE more than a DT in drills.

At the combine he kinda has flown under the radar since he didn't show up in any of the top 10 lists from the combine since the DT's are mixed in with the DE's, just the bench where he was the 4th best (ahead of Brace and Raji), his 40 was the best of the DT's though. It is a closer inspection of his combine results (plus what he has done at his pro day since), that is most revealing. His 10 yd split (not listed everywhere)(TT's favorite measurable for the DL) is historically good, it might be the best 10 yd split a 300lb+ guy has ever posted (if not it is surely top 3). The rest (aside from bench) is the top across the board. He improved his vert to equal Gilbert's, benches and squats more than Raji, and is faster in all tests than Larry English. The combination of his vert+broad+reps is just over 80, something that is very rare to find (1 or 2 per draft, tops), even rarer when the guy does 35 or less reps. It is rare to find a DT even get to 70 without 35+ reps (Harrell was the only one in his draft), guys that can bench can't jump. What is truly unusual is the explosive guys (what the vert+broad+reps sum is) typically aren't the fast guys, to be in the ultra rare class in speed and explosion is almost unheard of.

So his scouting reports were wrong. A DT as athletic as him hasn't come around in a very long time (I have combine #'s for everybody drafted going back to 2003, nobody is close).

There are basically 4 types of 3-4 lineman, true NT's, true DE's, NT's that can kick out to DE (big frame NT's, run stoppers at DE), and DE's that can swing inside to NT (powerful penetrators). His frame and #'s are of the rarest type, the DE that can swing inside to NT (K Williams did this in Mn for the short time they ran a 3-4).

He's right in that band where's he's a little undersized for DE (Louis Castillo sized almost exactly) but not too small, with decent arm length, yet not too tall or lanky for NT. While he in no way would be an every down NT (not bulky enough), if the team is going to use a 2-4 nickel set, and put a DE in the A gap or over the nose, he's your man to slide in from the DE spot. The fact that we are running a 1 gap scheme just makes his value go that much higher.

TT values position prototype (elite #'s for the prototype), values versatile players, values leaders, and values high motor driven guys and values productive players (here's the thing with Harrell, he wasn't a big sacker, but he was good at batting passes and his team was substantially better against the run with him on the field (this has been true in GB too if anybody has been paying attention)).

Nationally right now Hood is ranked around 20 by most of the more informed pundits, and word at his pro day was that most NFL scouts had him ranked higher than Jerry (GB was well represented at his pro day and met with him at the Senior Bowl).

I think I understand TT's "reaches", people look at it from the wrong direction, it isn't so much that he wants that guy, it is that he doesn't want the others, and his guy is just the highest ranked among those.

When you look at the guys in the 8-20 area:
Brown - Too short, not explosive enough
Sanchez - I don't think he'll pick a QB
Andre - not agile enough, problems with the fork
Crabtree - too far from the ball
Ayers - bad explosion #'s, not agile enough
Oher - not agile enough, inconsistent, probably a G at the pro level
Vontae - too far from the ball, not a physical corner
Jenkins - too slow
Maualuga - a possibility, but I don't think TT will take a 2 down player in the top 10
Freeman - I don't think he'll pick a QB
Moreno - too slow
Britton - too short of arms
Beatty - possibility, fits the prototype
Wells - possibility
Cushing - possibility
Maclin - too far from the ball
Maybin - strong possibility

Basically, if Smith, Raji, Monroe, Orakpo, and Curry are off the board, simply by a process of cancelling who he wouldn't take, the pick is going to come down to:
Maybin
Maualuga
Beatty
Cushing
Wells
Hood

Take away the guys that play at already big money positions (ILB), and you are left with:
Maybin
Wells
Beatty
Hood

If he opts to go defense, we're left with:
Maybin
Hood

It isn't that TT values him super highly, just by process of filtering out the guys he probably wouldn't take, he ends up rising very high, simply because, for some odd reason, this year has a lot of guys in the first whose tape is good, bit whose measurables are poor or don't fit in to position prototypes.

Though I do think Maybin is by far the most likely pick if Smith, Monroe, Raji, Orakpo, and Curry are gone.

He has shown before that he will "reach" big for a guy with very elite measurables and a prototype frame, that didn't have the production to match. (Collins). If he isn't enamored by Maybin don't be too shocked if Hood is the guy, if there is one guy that fits TT"s profile of who he will reach for, Hood is that guy.

I do like Hood, but he is definitely not "my" guy (not that I'd complain though). I don't pick guys I think that we should take so much as try to Sherlock Holmes on TT's pick, since everybody seems to think that he is wildly unpredictable, he isn't, he has patterns, they are just very hard to crack. The key piece of info to know it that TT strongly values players that fit the prototype of a position. One big thing to remember about Hood, his measurables are good enough to justify #1 overall, his tape and position are not.

[KYPack]

Great post Waldo.

I've been saying that quite a bit, lately.

Good stuff, all of it.

You really need to put this shit in order and make an article out of it. I'd read it, for one. These are concepts I've been trying to get my brain around for a few years now. Why does TT draft who he drafts?

These posts are part of the answer, anyway.

[MJZiggy]

Great post Waldo.

I've been saying that quite a bit, lately.

Good stuff, all of it.

You really need to put this shit in order and make an article out of it. I'd read it, for one. These are concepts I've been trying to get my brain around for a few years now. Why does TT draft who he drafts?

These posts are part of the answer, anyway.

Freaks me out when you start reading my mind like that...