Tackles not as good as hype would make you believe

[Partial]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/43260222.html

I really trust Phil Savage and AJ Smith's draft evaluation. Both have earned reputations as the games two top talent evaluators with Ozzie Newsome imo.

BTW, does anyone remember where some people here were saying this was going to be one of the strongest drafts ever?? Man, I am still of the believe that 2006 draft had some of the best prospects and talent of any draft I can remember. Sure, some of those guys aren't tearing up the NFL, but they sure were some of the best college players ever.

[Joemailman]

I think this draft in general is seen as being short on elite players. That's why there have been reports that all the top ten teams want to trade down. I don't think there's a huge difference between #16 and #16. Lots of good players, but not many great ones.

[Lurker64]

I think a lot of the logic in taking an OT in this spot is simply a position value argument. You find pro bowl QBs in all sorts of places (Brady and Hasselbeck were sixth round picks), you can find top tier 3-4 OLBs under a rock (Joey Porter was a 3rd round pick, James Harrisson was undrafted), you can find difference making WRs waiting for the bus (Jennings was a 2nd round pick, Brandon Marshall was a 4th round pick, Marquis Colston went in the seventh), you can find great 3-4 DEs in the classifieds (Chris Canty was a 4th round pick, Jay Ratliff went in the 7th), but left tackles you get from the first round. If you look around the league, almost all of the teams that are comfortable with their LTs took one in the first round (often high) or the high second.

So from the perspective of "we may not be able to grab a quality LT at any point in the future, if this team actually plays well" combined with "Cliffy's on his last legs, and we don't know who's playing RT", it makes a certain amount of sense.

Not only that, but just based on percentages, LTs actually bust very rarely. Guys may not become hall of famers or perennial pro bowlers, but almost everybody who drafts an LT high ends up with a solid starter for years to come. By the numbers, I believe it's the position with the lowest bust rate in the first round.

Not only that, but if you do end up being the unlucky team that takes an LT high and he busts, there's a lot more value in LT busts than there are in busts at other positions. Busts at other positions end up out of the league, busts at LT usually end up being very solid contributors at either RT or G. Looking at recent busts, if you're going to be spending a lot of money on a top ten guy, who would you rather be paying? Robert Gallery (Starting LG for the Raiders), Jamal Reynolds (out of the league), Mike Williams (out of the league), or Alex Smith (riding the pine for the niners.)

Certainly, it's not a ballsy pick, but there's a lot of sense in the "when are we next going to be in position to grab a top LT?, "top LT busts are rare", and "even LTs that bust can become solid contributors on the roster." In a draft almost completely devoid of superstar talent, there's a lot of sense in taking the safe pick. Sure, each of the Tackles could bust this year, but I could easily see everybody taken in the top 10 except the tackles ending up as a bust or a disappointment. I give better odds to Michael Oher being a solid contributing NFL player than Mark Sanchez or Jeremy Maclin doing it.

[PlantPage55]

I agree, Partial, it's a good article. HOWEVER...

Now I think it is official: We have heard EVERY position group called "overrated" and EVERY prospect now has flaws.

No shit.

The internet age has brought an onslaught of over-evaluation that is simply incredible. These days, not only can you make a case against EVERY player, but there is so much misinformation out there that I'm afraid that without being scouts ourselves, we may not be able to get a bead on who is what. I don't feel like the advancement of prospect evaluation has made scouting any easier at all, actually.

[Fritz]

Phil Savage, Partial? As in the Cleveland Browns' Phil Savage? You think he's a very good talent evaluator?

[BallHawk]

Phil Savage, Partial? As in the Cleveland Browns' Phil Savage? You think he's a very good talent evaluator?

Yup, the man who destroyed the Cleveland Browns from the inside out and whose best move last season was.....drafting an offensive tackle in the first round.

[wist43]

I have concerns about both Oher and A.Smith...

Don't want Smith at all... just way too much risk there. And Oher was only average as a SR. and will be drafted high on potential... always have a concern about guys that really haven't done it.

Still holding out hope that either Raji or Orakpo are there at 9, and TT actually has the guts to pull the trigger on one of them if they're there... I don't think either will be the case though.

I'm thinking we end up with Jackson or Oher.

[HarveyWallbangers]

This isn't the first time I've heard the OTs aren't that special. I have a feeling that the OT may drop a tad. Wouldn't surprise me if none of the OTs didn't go in the 3-5 picks.

Robert Ayers seems to be zooming up a lot of people's draft boards.

[Fritz]

I have concerns about both Oher and A.Smith...

Don't want Smith at all... just way too much risk there. And Oher was only average as a SR. and will be drafted high on potential... always have a concern about guys that really haven't done it.

Still holding out hope that either Raji or Orakpo are there at 9, and TT actually has the guts to pull the trigger on one of them if they're there... I don't think either will be the case though.

I'm thinking we end up with Jackson or Oher.

Not sure what "guts" would be required to take Orakpo or Raji...both are projected top ten picks. "Guts" would be taking a guy no one had projected in the top 15 or so...like Buffalo did a few years back with Donte Whitmer. That's guts.

[Partial]

Phil Savage, Partial? As in the Cleveland Browns' Phil Savage? You think he's a very good talent evaluator?

Yup, the man who destroyed the Cleveland Browns from the inside out and whose best move last season was.....drafting an offensive tackle in the first round.

He isn't a good GM. He was an amazing scout and was known for rebuilding the Ravens. He was Ozzie Newsome's right hand man. Do some googling and you'll see how reputable this guy is in scouting circles.

[Partial]

This isn't the first time I've heard the OTs aren't that special. I have a feeling that the OT may drop a tad. Wouldn't surprise me if none of the OTs didn't go in the 3-5 picks.

Robert Ayers seems to be zooming up a lot of people's draft boards.

Mayock thinks he's the best player in the draft forecasting 3 years out I've heard.

[Cheesehead Craig]

I don't think there's a huge difference between #16 and #16.

I would go so far as to say there is NO difference between 16 and 16. I know, it's a bold statement on my part and may cause some controversy but I'm going to stand behind it.

[channtheman]

I don't think there's a huge difference between #16 and #16.

I would go so far as to say there is NO difference between 16 and 16. I know, it's a bold statement on my part and may cause some controversy but I'm going to stand behind it.

You asshole!

[Sparkey]

...

[Joemailman]

I don't think there's a huge difference between #16 and #16.

I would go so far as to say there is NO difference between 16 and 16. I know, it's a bold statement on my part and may cause some controversy but I'm going to stand behind it.

Of course I meant 6 and 16.