Mock Drafts

[Lurker64]

Jackson, like Raji, has 2 grades.

He has a 3-4 DE grade
And a 4-3 DE grade

With 32" arms, I wouldn't think Raji's DE grades are very good

I was thinking more along the line of 4-3 UT or NT and 3-4 NT with Raji. Kinda different tasks, his pass rushing ability is fairly useless to a 3-4 team, as the NT comes off the field in most nickle sets. Granted it gets used on rare occasions, but run blocking skill is given much more weight by 3-4 teams.

I don't think 3-4 teams have nearly as high a grade on Raji as 4-3 teams do. He isn't nearly as good agaisnt the run as he is made out to be, Brace is a lot better. Raji is owned in 1 on 1 run blocking with a lineman far too often for comfort. The physical ability is there, but he's a bit of a project at 3-4 NT, nobody knows if he has the mental fortitude for it.

Yeah, that was why I ed. I knew you meant "Jackson, like Raji, receives two different grades: one for the position he would play in a 3-4 look, and one for the position he would play in a 4-3 look". It's just that it was phrased in such a way that it made it look like teams were evaluating Raji as an end, which is a funny thought.

[Partial]

I think a lot of people have been interested in Jackson since Capers was hired. However, it's not until recently that he's been considered a guy you might take at 9. I think his stock has improved as people have come to the conclusion that there are not a lot of elite prospects in this draft. Jackson is seen as a very safe pick.

It's not just that.

Jackson, like Raji, has 2 grades.

He has a 3-4 DE grade
And a 4-3 DE grade

Those grades are very different. A big run stuffing LDE isn't really all that valuable for a 4-3 team. You can get Montgomeries late. First round 4-3 DE's are graded (right or wrong) solely on their ability to get to the QB.

When you start to consider a guys ability to 2 gap the POA, read line blocking to flow to the ball, hold his ground when doubled, stack and shed, and crash a gap and maintain contain, and set up plays with his linebackers rushing and against the run, plus getting push on the QB from the inside (little need for "turning the corner" or "bend" inside), and make zone drops, that grade becomes very different. A guy can kinda suck as a 4-3 DE, just be a run stopper, but put him at 5-tech in a 3-4 and his value is totally different.

I suspect that most draftnik scouts are evaluating him as a 4-3 LDE, and not projecting him into a 3-4 at DE and applying a grade. The season he had a lot of sacks (2006)....he was a 3-4 5-tech, they switched to a 4-3 defense after that.

We are seeing that in fact at 5-tech, what 3-4 teams are rating him as, he has a VERY high grade. I've been told that he has a similar grade to Seymore, higher than K. Williams (who also was considered an ideal 5 tech out of college).

How did KWill rate as a DT? i'm getting excited about the prospect of TyJack if this is all true.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Waldo has me coming around to TyJack. I think Harv was the first one tooting his horn a few months back, right?

No, I can't claim that. The only thing I noticed was that he was a DE for the 3-4. Other than that, I didn't have much of an opinion on him.

I like him though. Strange draft. I haven't fallen in love with anybody. There are guys I like better than others (Jackson, Raji, top two OTs, Crabtree, Curry, even Jenkins) and others that I don't want (Oher, Brown, Smith)--but mostly I'm indifferent on these guys.

[Bretsky]

I'd be jacked with Jackson, especially if TT can trade down a few spots and still nab him. I'd be radical with Raji. I'd be okay with Oher.

You seem to have joined the mob mentality in here

[Partial]

Waldo has me coming around to TyJack. I think Harv was the first one tooting his horn a few months back, right?

No, I can't claim that. The only thing I noticed was that he was a DE for the 3-4. Other than that, I didn't have much of an opinion on him.

I like him though. Strange draft. I haven't fallen in love with anybody. There are guys I like better than others (Jackson, Raji, top two OTs, Crabtree, Curry, even Jenkins) and others that I don't want (Oher, Brown, Smith)--but mostly I'm indifferent on these guys.

The only guy I think is a for-sure star in Crabtree. The other guys I'm kind of 'eh' about. would be fired up for Orakpo.

I think Curry drops like a rock right past us. I've actually thought this for awhile. That's way too high to draft a SLB.

I like Jenkins too. He might be my 3rd favorite defensive guy behind the newly hyped TyJack and then Orakpo.

[Lurker64]

[quote="Waldo"]We are seeing that in fact at 5-tech, what 3-4 teams are rating him as, he has a VERY high grade. I've been told that he has a similar grade to Seymore, higher than K. Williams (who also was considered an ideal 5 tech out of college).[/quote

Here's the thing that worries me about Tyson Jackson, what is it that convinces me that Jackson won't totally fizzle and become average like Marcus Spears, a player I'm seeing Jackson get compared to quite frequently. Now certainly Jackson isn't Spears anymore than Everette Brown is Jamal Reynolds, but all of the Cowboys fans I know are really, really down on Jackson claiming that they've seen this all before with Spears and that whoever takes Jackson is going to be really disappointed.

How am I sure that they're wrong?

[Waldo]

We are seeing that in fact at 5-tech, what 3-4 teams are rating him as, he has a VERY high grade. I've been told that he has a similar grade to Seymore, higher than K. Williams (who also was considered an ideal 5 tech out of college).

Here's the thing that worries me about Tyson Jackson, what is it that convinces me that Jackson won't totally fizzle and become average like Marcus Spears, a player I'm seeing Jackson get compared to quite frequently. Now certainly Jackson isn't Spears anymore than Everette Brown is Jamal Reynolds, but all of the Cowboys fans I know are really, really down on Jackson claiming that they've seen this all before with Spears and that whoever takes Jackson is going to be really disappointed.

How am I sure that they're wrong?

Spears is slow.

I have all of the workout #'s for virtually every defensive front 7 player taken since 2002, plus a few before, in a big huge spreadsheet. I divided guys height by weight (unit weight), plotted that as the X value vs. their 40 and 10, and found the trendline of best fit, basically average NFL speed. I then calculate the % that each player's 10 and 40 deviate from NFL average (the equation for that trendline gives expected 10 and 40 for their ht/wt combo) (positive or negative) and average the two numbers together.

It is actually quite shocking how incredibly good at predicting success that simple formula is; a player's height, weight, 40 and 10 yd split (lacking a 10 I just use the 40 and don't average them) is all you need. Don't pick guys with negative speed averages and well over 70% of the healthy defensive front 7 busts in recent years could be avoided.

Slow guys don't make good football players.

Spears is slow for his ht/wt combo. Rarely do players below average speed for their ht/wt amount to anything. Jackson is above average for his ht/wt combo. That # is the only measurable that I've found that correlates to success at the position. IMO Jackson has the measurables to be elite at 3-4 DE, Spears does not.

As a sidenote, just like Igor, Gilbert's 10 yd split is pretty bad for his ht/wt combo (below average), that doesn't bode well for him being anything more than average. If one of the two numbers is going to be below average, it is always better for the 40 to be blow average and 10 be above average. Guys with slow 10 yd splits typically don't amount to much more than JAG's.

[Lurker64]

Very interesting stuff Waldo, if it's not too much trouble, could you fish up the numbers on Spears vs. Jackson and post them here? It probably wouldn't be terribly hard for me to get these myself, but it's easier to ask and sometimes finding the accurate weights for guys when they were drafted is hard to do three years later.

Alternatively, can you just confirm the numbers I've found?

Spears
40: 5.03
Height: 6.33
Weight: 307

Jackson
40: 4.94
Height: 6.33
Weight: 296

Are these accurate? Do you have the 10 yard splits handy?

[Waldo]

I don't hav a 10 for Spears, but Jackson's 10 was 1.68, same as K. Will's.

I use

% deviation from expected 40 = (1-40 time/(0.0397*(weight/height)+3.092))*100

% deviation from expected 10 = (1-10 time/(0.0114*(weight/height)+1.1785))*100

Then average them together (plus look at them individually)

For Spears:
40 dev = -0.90
(not expecting big things out of a number like that, I'm surprised that he's even starting)

For Jackson:
40 dev = 0.09
10 dev = 1.78
avg = 0.93
(good enough that speed isn't an issue)

When both numbers are positive, good things happen, it weeds out a good % of the busts in the league, much more than it weeds out good players.

I have 12 4-3 DT's over that time frame with a negative average and negative 10 yd split. 1 is a starter (Domata Peko), 6 are backups, 5 are busts. I found 2 other healthy busts over the same time frame that had positive times, Donnell Washington and Johnathan Lewis. Don't take slow big guys. It holds true at NT and 3-4 DE too (LB and DE isn't really any different either). Kris Jenkins is the trend breaker, the only slow NT/DT that I've found that has become an elite player.

[Lurker64]

Neat stuff, Waldo. How does Jackson compare to, say, Richard Seymour in terms of "fancy tricks you can play with Excel"?

[packrulz]

I think Jackson would be a reach at #9, he only did 20 reps of 225lbs on the bench press, http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...2009&genpos=DE
He reminds me a lot of Colin Cole, who TT let go. I just think there are better players than him at #9, I'm kind of surprised he's even being considered in the first round, he only had 4.5 sacks last year. I'd rather have TT draft Aaron Maybin or Everette Brown.

[Waldo]

Neat stuff, Waldo. How does Jackson compare to, say, Richard Seymour in terms of "fancy tricks you can play with Excel"?

About the same.

Basically that it isn't anything athletic that is going to prevent him from being a good one.

[Fritz]

Waldo needs to be getting paid by the Packers for his work if he isn't already...

[HarveyWallbangers]

Any chance that Raji could play DE in a 3-4, if we draft him and can't find a complement for Jenkins outside?

[Waldo]

He's slow (relative to other 3-4 DE's), very short, and very short armed for the position.

Not liking his chances to even be marginally useful there.

Starting 3-4 DE's tend to be about 6'5", 300lb, 35" arms, and run sub 5.0 in the 40.

Raji has very good speed for his size, but he's so big, were he the typical 3-4 DE size, he'd be really slow.