It's Curse Of Bretsky Time...

[pbmax]

Bret, don't let them forget about Beanie Wells. Snake seen that guy play, looks OK, maybe a good player...Snake don't see it though. No Jim Brown...more like Vaughn Dunbar...top Saint pick early 90's (look it up).

Snake

Ya gotta look back at the context of that post; I was making an example that if TTT things Wells or Crab is a star then he should not hesitate.

I believe it was Waldo who loved the Beanman

Bretsky loves the Crab; I don't have much of a view either way on Beanie

Crabtree has been going out of his way to cement the picture of him as receiver diva. He had an NFL.com chat transcript that a Raider forum/blog caught where he no commented on playing for the Raiders. The NFL.com folks scrubbed the original remark but left a reference to it later in the transcript.

I saw him on Mike and Mike the other morning and he seemed quite genuine in his 10 minutes. But the rest of this press tour isn't shaking the image of the report that Cleveland removed him from consideration over his attitude.

Who knows, one of Bill's guys might just be throwing up a smoke screen.

[Bretsky]

I was on board with Chad Jackson
I loved Meachem over Justine

I hated the Aaron Rodgers pick at the time.

Odell Thurman was the one that seems to have made me infamous. I also really liked Scott Pollack that year. Neither turned out.

I also ranted about why we didn't give Antwoine Hawthorrne from UW MAD a try.

I really like Dwayne Jarrett and Sydney Rice a lot better than James Jones

Last year I didn't get too into the draft but I was really on board with Antoine Cason, Brandon Flowers, and Philip Mehring

[vince]

Will the curse continue? Here's a pretty strong historical perspective - and slightly more intelligent analyis than the "Dude's a stud." depth some here who have a propensity to want to project talent offer.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/04/crabtree-boom-or-bust/

Crabtree: Boom Or Bust?

The notion of selecting a wide receiver in the top 10 of the NFL Draft has always been considered a major risk. On Saturday, Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree is expected to be come off the board early, and it’s our job to decide if he’s worth the money and the risk — because there have been plenty of busts before him.

Wide Receiver Trends

I believe that any time an NFL club has a draft pick in the top 10, it has to weigh the risk and the reward of the top players on its draft board — and I think it’s safe to say Crabtree is near the top of every team’s big board going into Saturday.

Before we get into paying top dollar for Crabtree, let’s look at some of the risks — historically — of drafting a wide receiver in the top 10.

Here is a list of WRs drafted in the top 10 since 2000:

2000
4 Peter Warrick
8 Plaxico Burress
10 Travis Taylor

2001
8 David Terrell
9 Koren Robinson

20002
NONE

2003
2 Charles Rogers.
3 Andre Johnson

2004
3 Larry Fitzgerald
7 Roy Williams
9 Reggie Williams

2005
3 Braylon Edwards
7 Troy Williamson
10 Mike Williams

2006
NONE

2007
2 Calvin Johnson
9 Ted Ginn, Jr.

2008
NONE

Looking at this list, two things stand out.

First, in three of the last seven years, no club took a chance on drafting a wide receiver in the top 10. Does this tell us something about the faith NFL owners and GMs have in rookie wide receivers?

Second, of the 15 names listed above, I think it’s safe to say that only six (Burress, A. Johnson, Fitzgerald, Edwards, C. Johnson and Ginn) can be labeled as players who weren’t busts — and I’m giving Ginn the benefit of the doubt in this discussion because he improved in the 2008 season. That means that nine top 10 WRs stole some big-time money from this league and never panned out. Bust City, folks.

Where is Crabtree going to fall? Is he going to be a bust like Warrick or a big-time playmaker like Fitzgerald? Let’s check him out and decide for ourselves.

The Struggles of Rookie WRs

Why do so many of these rookies find themselves sliding toward the bust category? They have the talent, they dominate in college, and suddenly they find themselves looking for work quickly after their names are called on draft day.

Let’s look at some of the factors as they apply to Crabtree.

1. Press Coverage
This is the No. 1 factor that hampers rookie wide receivers. In college, the corner play is average. It’s soft, and the lack of physical press coverage is evident on film. In the NFL, every cornerback can play press coverage or he won’t see the field. Rookies are not used to the physical size of NFL corners and their ability to use their long arms to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage.

What about Tampa 2 teams? Well, this is even more evident as Tampa 2 corners are taught to be overly physical at the point of attack and re-route every release inside to the safeties. Once a corner in a Tampa 2 jams at the line efficiently, the route is dead and the quarterback has to look to his second option.

At Tech, Crabtree primarily faced off-man coverage (to respect his speed) or a form of zone coverage — so that defenses could keep everything in front of them without giving up the big play. Not in the NFL. Corners love getting in the face of high-priced rookies and physically whipping them at the line of scrimmage.

2. Reading Defenses
In college, these young receivers don’t read defenses because they’re vanilla as they come, especially when you play against a spread attack like the one at Texas Tech. Crabtree ran to open areas in zone coverage and just waited for the football. Teams didn’t disguise their coverage, and even if they did, Crabtree used his athletic ability — which is special — to get open.

Not going to happen in the pros. Today’s football is centered around attacking defenses that roll their coverage at the snap. As a receiver, if you can’t figure out what the defense is doing, the quarterback is not going to throw you the football — because you won’t be open. QBs in the NFL don’t have time to wait for a wide receiver to figure out where to break his route based on the defense.

3. The Playbook
I’m sure the Texas Tech playbook is impressive, but it’s nothing like an NFL playbook. Not only do you have to know what to do on every play, you also have to know what everyone else is doing on that play — including the run game. The playbooks can rival novels in their size, and you’re expected to know it all.

It’s a very simple principle for rookies at this level — know the playbook by heart or sit on the bench. This is a job now.

4. Length of the SeasonThere are 20 football games in the NFL every year counting the preseason. It’s a grind for rookies, and in this business, you’re expected to produce every Sunday. Rookie WRs begin to fade around Week 9 or 10, and when a team needs them for a playoff push in December, they often disappear.

The physical demand is much greater at the NFL level, and rookies have a hard time adjusting to that, playing through pain and finding a way to produce when their bodies are tired.

5. Athletic Ability
Crabtree was the best athlete on the football field every time he put a uniform on at Texas Tech. Not anymore. Corners and safeties in the NFL all run a 4.4 40s, and they all have better technique than any player in college that Crabtree faced. He’s not going to be able to run playground routes and just try to get open — because he’ll get shut down routinely. The men who play in the secondary in the NFL are just that good.

Crabtree will see when he plays against the Steelers or Ravens that he’s just another guy – someone for them to beat on.

The “Diva” Factor

We all know that most wide receivers in this league are “divas,” and the report that came out of Cleveland on Wednesday was something I’ve heard all offseason about Crabtree. He’s being labeled as a “me-first” guy right now, and that’s not a good thing when you’re about to write him a check for million of dollars. Yes, I understand that Chad Ochocinco and others can be labeled the same way — but I think they’ve proven they can play at this level. Crabtree hasn’t.

Is that a factor for teams? I don’t know, but as our own Michael Lombardi wrote this morning, it looks as if it will be a factor for Eric Mangini and the Browns. When the only thing you’re worried about going into draft day is your wardrobe, well, teams might want to check out someone else.

In my opinion, it plays a big part. Is Crabtree the next guy to love the money instead of the game? It’s something to consider when you’re about to make him a millionaire on Saturday.

Because it can cripple careers before they even begin.

What does this mean for Crabtree?

In my opinion, a lot.

Crabtree is going to struggle against press coverage, he will struggle in a pro-style offense, and he will struggle adjusting to the NFL game — because all rookie wide receivers do.

We don’t know for sure if Cleveland is running a diversion to make sure they get Crabtree on Saturday at No.5, but as Lombardi wrote, they might want to hold on to Braylon Edwards until they make up their minds.

Look, I know Crabtree is a special talent on videotape, and anyone else would say the same thing. He is a phenomenal college football player. I loved watching him play at Texas Tech, and I think he could be a good receiver in the NFL. But we have to be honest with ourselves. He’s coming across as a diva, the history of top 10 wide receivers isn’t good, and no one knows how his game will translate at the pro level.

That’s the truth, whether you like it or not.

And drafting Crabtree — or any other receiver in the top 10 — shows me that teams are once again rolling the dice, throwing money away and making an investment that could kill them financially for the next five seasons.

Because if Michael Crabtree is drafted in the top five, he will become the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. Yes, he will make more money than Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald.

A high price to pay for a guy who has never played a down of professional football and comes from a gimmick college offensive system, don’t you think?

[Fritz]

Yes, Bretsky, it was Odell Thurman that put you over the hump. And I do believe you - heck, bunches of us - were calling for Thompson to get a head examination after passing on Jackson.

This just demonstrates that he knows more than we do. Lots more. How many of us have spent hours and hours in the film room, watching a tight end from Northwestern East Carolina Tech who might be a very good left tackle?

We get what the media gives us - we get names we fall in love with. Heck, I do. I love Jackson. Raji, too. But how much film have I watched? How much time have I spent interviewing either one, how much time have I spent breaking down their film versus, say, that of some South Carolina guy?

The question is how much Thompson knows and how well he compares to his peers. And I think he's much better than most. I'd rather have him running the Packer drafts than just about anyone else.

[Partial]

I don't think a receiver is any bigger of a risk than any other position. Quarterback could be considered a slightly higher risk. Busts exist at every position.

[Fritz]

Uh, Partial, look at this list:

2000
4 Peter Warrick
8 Plaxico Burress
10 Travis Taylor

2001
8 David Terrell
9 Koren Robinson

20002
NONE

2003
2 Charles Rogers.
3 Andre Johnson

2004
3 Larry Fitzgerald
7 Roy Williams
9 Reggie Williams

2005
3 Braylon Edwards
7 Troy Williamson
10 Mike Williams

2006
NONE

2007
2 Calvin Johnson
9 Ted Ginn, Jr.

Can you come up with another position that contains so many busts picked so high?

[Partial]

It's bad, no doubt. I'm not saying thats to be expected.

I'm saying that that is FAR too small of a sample size for one.

Secondly, there are plenty of QB busts. McNown, Mirer, Smith, Smith, Carr, and on and on. There are plenty of RB busts (look at the Bears alone... Salaam, Enis, Texas guy, etc).

Look at all the DEs and DTs drafted high that have fizzled out. There have been plenty. Gerard Warren, DeWayne Robertson, Courtney Brown, Jimmy Kennedy, Damoine Lewis, and those are just a few off the top of my head.

[HarveyWallbangers]

McGinn says that Crabtree is the top rated player on Ted Thompson's board. That would be crazy if Bretsky got his wish. Not sure how McGinn would know this though.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/43659322.html