Clay Matthews

[Waldo]

Crossing tier lines is expensive.

Now this sounds like "step on a crack, break your mother's back." Do you really think GMs are superstitous?

I imagine GMs look strictly at draft position, don't give a hoot about round numbers. Maybe you are right somehow, that there is a lot of symbolism and irrational decision making, but that surprises me.

Prospects are broken down in tiers by teams. Most trading is done within a tier, a team accepts a trade to move back to get lass variety, but isn't really losing much in the way of player value.

To cross a tier line however, a team is giving up player value, they are clearly getting lesser prospects with those picks. Teams don't like to do it and often require extra value to do so. 26 to 41 is a huge trade down for NE, they definitely crossed a tier line on their draft board.

I don't think that TT has dropped the tier value of any pick that he has traded back yet, just moving to later int he tier and getting less variety of roughly equal prospects.

[pbmax]

I just get the vibe of desperation with this pick. The fact that a TV guy, Mayock, had Senior Bowl tape with Matthews having problems with his hand placement (they were always low and late) and shedding yet the Packers are raving about hand placement and his ability to hold the point of attack make me think they have talked themselves into this pick. My first considered reaction is that it was panic due to the defensive changeover.

I hope he continues to improve.

[Harlan Huckleby]

To cross a tier line however, a team is giving up player value, they are clearly getting lesser prospects with those picks. Teams don't like to do it and often require extra value to do so. 26 to 41 is a huge trade down for NE, they definitely crossed a tier line on their draft board.

Oh, OK, I see what you were saying. By "tier" you meant players grouped according to similar value.

ya, I suppose NE might have seen a big drop in the there.

[Fritz]

I'd be curious to know what trade value chart the Packers use. Here's the one from the NFL Draft Tracker: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

Based upon that one, the Packers gave up the equivalent of an extra third round pick, about a 2/3's-of-the-way-through the third round type of pick.

But as I said elsewhere, TT must've really, really liked Matthews. An awful lot. TT could've waited and traded up for Barwin as well, who was evaluated as monstrously athletic but very raw. Hew could've waited and just took Barwin, but my point is that if he'd fallen in love with Barwin TT could've waited a bit longer, gave up far less, and still have gotten Barwin.

But he didn't. Thus, it sounds like TT and the scouts absolutely loved Matthews.

Let's hope he stays healthy. That's one of the big risks of trading up and giving up so much - if your guy doesn't pan out, you've lost not one player but theone or two others you'd have been able to draft.

[sheepshead]

Dan Pompei Chicago Tribune-for what it's worth:


Packers: GM Ted Thompson was running the draft, but with the way it played out Dom Capers could have been. The new Packers defensive coordinator must have had some clout in the draft room because Thompson gave Capers a nose tackle in B.J. Raji and a pass-rushing outside linebacker in Clay Matthews.

Both were needs, but both also were value picks. The draft laid out very well indeed for the Packers, who unquestionably became a better team Saturday.

[Waldo]

I just get the vibe of desperation with this pick. The fact that a TV guy, Mayock, had Senior Bowl tape with Matthews having problems with his hand placement (they were always low and late) and shedding yet the Packers are raving about hand placement and his ability to hold the point of attack make me think they have talked themselves into this pick. My first considered reaction is that it was panic due to the defensive changeover.

I hope he continues to improve.

This is the same Mayock that is firmly convinced that Robert Ayers, a guy with marginal athleticism, poor production, off the field and motivation issues is the best defender in the draft.

You can't teach a 240+ lb guy to run a 10 yd split <1.5. The only pass rusher in the league in any form of defense that I am aware of that had a faster split than Clay is Freeney. You can teach a guy hand technique.

Clay did have some good looking pass rush moves at the Senior Bowl, most were shocked at how smooth he was with them.

[Packnut]

Mathews

but he had the best 10-yard split of any rush linebacker prospect at the scouting combine and will immediately threaten for the team lead in sacks


The above is an MSNBC analysis.

[Harlan Huckleby]

Let's hope he stays healthy. That's one of the big risks of

Ya, this is my problem with effectively trading 3 players for 1. If Clay Mathews breaks an ankle this summer, its the equivalent of three guys breaking their ankle.

Wait a minute, now I'm the one who sounds like Floyd the Barber.

Let me attempt a recovery: even if you can predict how good a player is going to be, injuries will occur randomly. So in a violent sport like football, you need to spread out your risks, not put too much value in a single player.

[Fritz]

I just get the vibe of desperation with this pick. The fact that a TV guy, Mayock, had Senior Bowl tape with Matthews having problems with his hand placement (they were always low and late) and shedding yet the Packers are raving about hand placement and his ability to hold the point of attack make me think they have talked themselves into this pick. My first considered reaction is that it was panic due to the defensive changeover.

I hope he continues to improve.

This is the same Mayock that is firmly convinced that Robert Ayers, a guy with marginal athleticism, poor production, off the field and motivation issues is the best defender in the draft.

You can't teach a 240+ lb guy to run a 10 yd split <1.5. The only pass rusher in the league in any form of defense that I am aware of that had a faster split than Clay is Freeney. You can teach a guy hand technique.

Clay did have some good looking pass rush moves at the Senior Bowl, most were shocked at how smooth he was with them.

Waldo, I know you were really high on Connor Barwin. How do you feel about the Packers passing up on Barwin and giving up both thirds for Matthews? You down with that?

[pbmax]

I just get the vibe of desperation with this pick. The fact that a TV guy, Mayock, had Senior Bowl tape with Matthews having problems with his hand placement (they were always low and late) and shedding yet the Packers are raving about hand placement and his ability to hold the point of attack make me think they have talked themselves into this pick. My first considered reaction is that it was panic due to the defensive changeover.

I hope he continues to improve.

This is the same Mayock that is firmly convinced that Robert Ayers, a guy with marginal athleticism, poor production, off the field and motivation issues is the best defender in the draft.

You can't teach a 240+ lb guy to run a 10 yd split <1.5. The only pass rusher in the league in any form of defense that I am aware of that had a faster split than Clay is Freeney.

Clay did have some good looking pass rush moves at the Senior Bowl, most were shocked at how smooth he was with them.

Yes, its hard to separate out wheat from chaff when I (or we) haven't seen this guy in actual games. I am not saying Mayock is the know all see all end all, but the tape matched exactly what he was describing, unlike several other instances where he was talking out of his posterior while the tape showing something completely different.

So that issue is one we need to see for our own eyes. Second is pass rush. From what I saw (agree with you), that was his positive and thought we reached to get both pass rush and the right body for OLB in this defense. But then Kevin Greene said he had a good base for pass rushing, but needed work here. he also seemed to imply that Matthews was farther along in holding the point that rushing the passer.

Now Greene is one person who could take a natural pass rusher and tell you without blinking there is room for improvement. You would have to believe #3 all time sack leader. But I have no feel where this guy is in his development, which is odd for a well covered first round pick.

As for Ayers, I posted that blurb a while ago. Mayock has a history of picking a couple guys and hitting on them (he was Ryan's biggest booster last year and loved Mayo) so I thought it was interesting, but he is probably wrong as often as teams are.

[RashanGary]

Matthews reminds me a lot of Jordy Nelson (position difference aside).



Nelson was a late bloomer. He was a great kid, driven so succeed and earned every opportunity. He had a fantastic senior season. He's physically gifted with all of the skills that translate to his position. He's an old school, tough football player. That's my view of him. He's a great blocker. He almost seems to love it. He's blocks great on ST's too, which is a pretty tough job. He played reckless and tough in college too.


Matthews was a late bloomer. His dad coached him in high school and didn't even start him. He didn't get scholarships to any schools but JUCO. He walked on at USC and played ST's for three years. He finally got his chance because of an injury and had a great senior year. He showed all of the skills that translate to his position. He's a great kid and a hard worker, driven to establish his own name. He's a tough, old school football player. He plays leverage football, with nasty demeanor. Ted said, this guy can fight blocks and stay on his feet when most guys can't. Said he was remarkable on tape. This guy is a demon on ST's, loves to get physical.


Obviously different positions but I compare Jordy to Hines Ward in that he's a smart, tough receiver that can do it all. I don't really know who to compare this guy to, but he's a tough, nasty defender that can rush the passer and hold the point better than guys his size are supposed to be able. Any old school player like that, that's who this guy is like.

[pbmax]

Wait a minute, now I'm the one who sounds like Floyd the Barber.

You are old for using this simile and I am old for getting the reference.


Fritz and Ras, are you with us? I know KYP and Shadow are in on the joke.

[RashanGary]

Now Greene is one person who could take a natural pass rusher and tell you without blinking there is room for improvement. You would have to believe #3 all time sack leader. But I have no feel where this guy is in his development, which is odd for a well covered first round pick.

Pass rushing is kind of an art. The great ones seem to break laws of age and get better as they get older. Greene was a true master. Something tells me he has a pretty high standard when it comes to the art of rushing the passer. That impression you got could be more about Greene's high standard than how this guy compares to other rookies. That was the impression I got anyway. Seems like Greene thinks he can shape this guy into a brute, and isn't ready to anoint him anything until he works to earn it like the best players do.

[Waldo]

I was higher on Matthews. I think that he's the only legit day 1 starter at WOLB.

He and English were 2a and 2b (behind Curry) as to my favorite 3-4 OLB's.

Barwin and Maybin were next.

English and Clay have things you can't measure (tough, relentless, drive, football IQ). Connor and Maybin are perfect specimens with a ruler and stopwatch, but don't quite have the "it" factor about them that Clay and Larry have.

I was resigned to the fact though that I couldn't have Clay or Larry in this draft.

[wist43]

Wist, I don't think there's any way Matthews would have been there with the #41 pick, because I think Belichick would would have taken him at #26 if he couldn't swing the trade. I think TT knew it, and that's why he was willing to give up as much as he did.

Then fine... let them take him at 26.

There are an awful lot of good football players being taken in this 2-3 round range that TT spit on in favor of Matthews.

As I said, I haven't looked at him much b/c 1) I thought teams would value him in an area we didn't pick, and; 2) From what I did see of him, I thought he was being way, way, way overvalued.

He does look like he can press the corner, he has room to get bigger/put on weight, and he does seem to have upside... that said, if he doesn't get some sand in his ass, I see him getting run over quite a bit at the NFL level.

At this point he looks like a major project.