Why did Crabtree fall?

[Guiness]

A cut and paste from a post I made in another thread. Crabtree was touted as the best or second best player available in the draft. Curry goes 4th, but I can see that because LB's just don't get drafted #1 overall. But what was wrong with Crabtree?

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And as far as passing on a dominating receiver...well, a little birdy tells me NFL GM's weren't so sold on him as the writers and public was.

Nine teams passed on Crab, including one that took a WR (ok, forget that. It was Oakland). 3 or 4 of those had a glaring need at WR, and we had the smallest need of any of the nine.

Either the foot thing scares the @#$% out of them, or they can see something we can't. Because it's not a coincidence they all passed. Not saying they're right, but saying it has to mean something.

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[Joemailman]

It was a combination of things. The foot. Bad reviews after his meeting with Cleveland. Concerns about route running ability.

[Lurker64]

There's some serious red flags about Crabtree, not saying he's not going to be good, but there are potential reasons teams passed on him:

1) His production was in a weird, gimmicky offense that was far from a pro style offense. As a result, there's going to be a lot of holes in his route tree. There were no intermediate routes in the entire Texas Tech playbook, it was all short or long. NFL teams run a ton of intermediate stuff.

2) The bust rate for WRs, even highly rated WRs, is notoriously high. Totally whiffing on a Top 10 pick gets you fired, unless you're Al Davis.

3) Wide Receivers influence fewer plays per game than any other position on offense. If you have multiple needs, this may well be the last one worth addressing.

4) NFL caliber WRs can be found in all rounds of the draft, NFL caliber OTs, QBs, and DTs are significantly harder to find.

5) Various reports indicate that Crabtree has some "prototypical WR diva" in them, and "how much of that you're willing to put up with" will vary from team to team. But very talented WRs who are huge headaches don't always work out for teams.

[Patler]

I posted the substance of this in another thread as well. Obviously, just a guess on my part, but my concerns would be:

- he has a pin in his foot, and has not yet begun workouts to see if the problem is fixed or if the pin itself will cause problems
- sometimes foot injuries can be slow to heal and re-occurring
- he already has a healthy dose of ego according to most reports. That might make him a poor fit in a lot of places, causing some teams to pass on him. Could he be the next Terrel Owens, a very talented player who wears on his teammates and wears out his welcome quite quickly?

Quite possibly none of these issues alone would stop you from drafting him. But when you combine them, how high do you want to take him and how much guaranteed money do you want to give him?

For the Packers, would he fit in with a group that thrives as a group, or would he demand to be featured?

[Packnut]

Big 12

In the Big 12, the concept of press coverage is an unknown concept. At TT, the concept of WR's blocking is an unknown concept. Hell, running plays are an unknown concept in Red Raider football.

If your picking a WR in the 1st rd, he had better be the total package!

[Zool]

Moss dropped to 21st in 1998. There's just no way of knowing until you have history behind you. If its just the attitude, then I hope he can get out of his own way. You just don't see college WR's as strong as him very often with the hands he has.

[rbaloha1]

Re: Big 12

In the Big 12, the concept of press coverage is an unknown concept. At TT, the concept of WR's blocking is an unknown concept. Hell, running plays are an unknown concept in Red Raider football.

If your picking a WR in the 1st rd, he had better be the total package!

Many wrs drafted in the first round are not the complete package (ie Ashley Lelie, Dante Stallworth. etc.)

According to sources, Crabtree was number one on the Packers draft board. The rationale for selecting Raji over Crabtree is special big men are rarer than special smaller men. True.

The Big 12 plays poor pass defense. However Crabby shined in big games like Texas. Showed the ability to run all the routes -- bubble screens, slants, posts, etc. The spread does not always have pre designed routes like the NFL. Receivers and qbs are required to read safeties and run the appropriate routes. Crabtree is smart, physical and instinctive player. The transition should be fairly smooth.

Outstanding talent like Fitzgerald. Expect Raji and Crabtree to have wonderful NFL careers.

[rbaloha1]

Re: Big 12

In the Big 12, the concept of press coverage is an unknown concept. At TT, the concept of WR's blocking is an unknown concept. Hell, running plays are an unknown concept in Red Raider football.

If your picking a WR in the 1st rd, he had better be the total package!

Many wrs drafted in the first round are not the complete package (ie Ashley Lelie, Dante Stallworth. etc.)

According to sources, Crabtree was number one on the Packers draft board. The rationale for selecting Raji over Crabtree is special big men are rarer than special smaller men. True.

The Big 12 plays poor pass defense. However Crabby shined in big games like Texas. Showed the ability to run all the routes -- bubble screens, slants, posts, etc. The spread does not always have pre designed routes like the NFL. Receivers and qbs are required to read safeties and run the appropriate routes. Crabtree is smart, physical and instinctive player. The transition should be fairly smooth.

Outstanding talent like Fitzgerald. Expect Raji and Crabtree to have wonderful NFL careers.

[Fritz]

Why did Crabtree drop?

To get to the other side.

[Chevelle2]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/receivers/070425

From 1989-2003, 1st round receivers have a 45% bust rate.

Food for thought.

[red]

he fell because he might have all the talent in the world, but maybe teams see him as the next TO or chad johnson

and maybe teams are getting sick of primadonna, me first, WR's

for what little i've seen of him it looks like he enjoys his bling, talking about how good he is, carrying a large possie, and dressing in fancy digs

there were enough concerns with him

[chain_gang]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/receivers/070425

From 1989-2003, 1st round receivers have a 45% bust rate.

Food for thought.

A little off topic, but I found that very interesting, and decided to do a little digging myself. Using the concept he used for the DT position. This may not be entirely accurate, but should be within a few % pts of the bust rate.

I used DT's selected in the 1st round from 1989 to 2006(I felt pretty comfortable calling John McCargo a Bust, and Bunkley and Ngata not busts)

From 1989-2006 45 DT's were chosen in the 1st round. Using NFL.com for games started per season, career length, and other information, I feel I came up with enough info to determine whether players were busts or not.(I also listed players on the draft history that were listed as DE's but played DT ex. Kevin Willams)

With the 45 DT's chosen from 1989-2006 24 of them graded out as busts. The bust % was 53%, I feel a very high number, but it also goes along the lines with how much harder it is to find a stud DT. So if you have the opportunity to potentially pick a great/solid DT, you better take your chance because they are so few and far between, and the elite ones are even more rare. Which makes me completely understand why TT took Raji over Crabs. Think about it, how many Great wideouts have we seen in the past 20 yrs? Now compare that to the amount of Great DT's we've seen in the past 20 yrs.

Good job TT!!!!

[CaliforniaCheez]

If you are looking at bust rates, even without data I feel comfortable saying
in order the riskiest picks are

1st round QB's
1st round DT's (especially from Florida schools)
1st round WR's

The least bustable picks are on the O-line.


Crabtree did not fall! He was a top 10 pick!

I think it is just the way things lined up.

Detroit and their history of 1st round WR's? Not good politics.
Rams replaced Orlando Pace with a safer pick.

The Chiefs couldn't make a deal so they picked their need rather than BPA
The Chiefs reputation is to ask too high a price for things so nobody dealt with them. They could have dealt if they lowered their price.

Seattle had Curry higher and got Hushmamisspeller in the off season.

The Browns did the right thing and bailed.

The Bengal were risk adverse.

The Raiders deserve more blame than KC.

The Jaguars were risk adverse

The Packers didn't need another WR as much as an NT. I was suprised Raji wasn't taken.

49'ers, great pick.


Blame the Raiders, Jaguars, and Chiefs regarding Crabtree not taken sooner.

WR just are not involved in as many plays as linemen so you don't get your money's worth spending millions on them.

[Partial]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/receivers/070425

From 1989-2003, 1st round receivers have a 45% bust rate.

Food for thought.

What is the bust rate for quarterbacks

[CaliforniaCheez]

1st round QB's is 30% success and 70% failure since 1999.

Brian Billick gave the numbers on NFL network.