13-3 season for the Pack? Read this optimistic assessment

[Partial]

So we'll either be really good or really bad

[Joemailman]

The last 2 seasons, I've predicted 10-6, and they've gone 13-3 and 6-10. That pretty much averages out to 10-6, so that's where I'm thinking they'll be this year.

[Deputy Nutz]

The hiring of Capers, and some of the other defensive coaches hired is what has me optimistic about 2009, not the draft. Despite the whole Favre saga, the Packers were so close last year. They lost 7 games in which they had the lead with 5 minutes left. With a record of just 4-3 in those games, they would have been in the playoffs. I believe if Capers had been the Packers DC last year, the Packers would have been a playoff team. I see no reason to expect less this year. Capers has a good record of success in his first year as a team's DC. This suggests he is very good at putting together a defense with enough flexibility that it takes advantage of the talent available. Call it 3-4, 4-3, hybrid, or whatever you want. Doesn't matter.

I am not disagreeing with this, I think this team is going to improve record wise in 2009 from 2008, but I don't see them contending for the conference championship or anything. I am not drinking the kool aid, but I am also not jumping off a bridge calling for anyone's head at the moment. Capers was a great hire, does he have all the pieces, no.

There is some real talent on this team, no doubt. I don't agree with Partial on that. This team has some holes starting at offensive tackle, if Thompson is the GM that everyone he claims he is, he should have someone on the roster that he has drafted that should be capable of filling the spot vacated by Mark Tauscher. He has certainly drafted enough offensive linemen that one can be called a diamond in the rough.

You look at the rest of the offense and the team is pretty stacked. Wide receiver I don't see a team deeper in the NFC. Running back is finally secured with Grant being signed for the long term, coming into camp on time injury free. Jackson looked really good last year, and Wynn??? Who knows maybe Sutton can challenge him. Rodgers will be good, is he cut out of the same mold as Joe Montana, Brett Favre, and John Elway? Or is he more of a Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Jim Kelly quarterback, good numbers but just isn't a QB that you can count on with the ball with two minutes left in the game? Regardless I am happy with Rodgers at qb top ten in the league in 2009.

Defense they are going to slowly get away from the team that was built to run a 4-3. There are going to be adjustments and rough spots, but I think in 2010 this defense is going to be one of the best in the NFC.

[Partial]

Blue Chippers:
2009 - Jennings
2004 - Favre

Red Chippers:
2009 - Driver, Woodson, Harris, Clifton, Kampman, Rodgers
2004 - Driver, Walker, Green, Clifton, Harris, Wahle, Tauscher

I don't see an immense amount of more talent on the roster now than 2004, for example. If Rodgers can develop into a blue chip talent, we'll have a chance annually like we did with Favre.

[Deputy Nutz]

Whats with the chips? Are we playing poker with these guys?

[SnakeLH2006]

I wouldn't be shocked if Harris is gone. HE's old. He's not a great fit in this defense.

I'd rather see him as nickle, but that is my preference.


Blackmon is awful.

Bush is awful.

Lee was awful. Lee appears dumb. This defense seems to rely on smart players being in the right spot at the right time. Lee's best skill coming out was man coverage and this defense should play very little man coverage\

Underwood is a rookie and should be bad at best in year 1


If I had to guess who makes it, I'd go like this:

Woodson
Williams
Harris
Underwood
Lee (ST's)
Bush (ST's)

I really hope Underwood pans out because I have little to no confidence in Blackmon or Lee panning out and Woodson is getting older.

Well you got your 2nd and 3rd chance, eh? Why hate on Lee? One year and didn't really play. Really? Ok?

But Al ain't going anyway unless he really declines, and kinda pushed it last year (did Snake) yet he played as well as EVER in his late games push. He's a guy who may be a service for years as a coach (as a player, you need those old vets who know all the intricitries to help out the young 'uns..) and TWill might step in to start this year, but it's not like Al at $5 million a year will handicap this team. Trading him for a late rounder is a mistake unless TWill really goes nuts in the preseason...else hold onto him. Al's value is far better than a 5th or 6th.

[3irty1]

Nutz you watched the games last year. 6-10 doesn't tell the whole story. Its very doom and gloom to predict that it will continue to rain shit on the Packers.

[Maxie the Taxi]

The hiring of Capers, and some of the other defensive coaches hired is what has me optimistic about 2009, not the draft. Despite the whole Favre saga, the Packers were so close last year. They lost 7 games in which they had the lead with 5 minutes left. With a record of just 4-3 in those games, they would have been in the playoffs. I believe if Capers had been the Packers DC last year, the Packers would have been a playoff team. I see no reason to expect less this year. Capers has a good record of success in his first year as a team's DC. This suggests he is very good at putting together a defense with enough flexibility that it takes advantage of the talent available. Call it 3-4, 4-3, hybrid, or whatever you want. Doesn't matter.

Well said. With all NFL teams able to win or lose on any given Sunday, games are won or loss "on the margin." If a team can fix a particularly vulnerable area, they get marginally better and have a better chance winning the close games.

Offensively, the Packers will score points. Their vulnerability has been defense. If Capers' new scheme can improve our run defense, the entire defense will get marginally better and the Pack will be in a better position to win the close ones in the last minutes. Let's face it, in the NFL most every game is close in the last minutes.

[Deputy Nutz]

Nutz you watched the games last year. 6-10 doesn't tell the whole story. Its very doom and gloom to predict that it will continue to rain shit on the Packers.

We if you read what I wrote in reference to the "mailman's" post, it isn't all doom and gloom. We are one year further ahead on offense, we just don't have an actual right tackle and our left tackle is a boarderline cripple who can manage one maybe two practices a week and it is really starting to get under the skin of McCarthy.

The defense had two really big problems last year, injuries, and Bob Sanders. The loss of Jenkins really put this team in poor position, the consistent injuries and lackluster performances from Harrell really created a hole at tackle, Barnett blew his knee out, but he really wasn't playing all that well to begin the season. The Packers had a revolving door at strong safety due to injuries. Bob Sanders was simply overmatched as a coordinator in 2008. 90% of the time he was in a straight up 4-3, no different alignment from his line, not twists, no stunts, no zone blitz. Thats what I noticed, not the lack of blitzing, but the lack of creativity with the defensive line that every program from high school on up does.

Well injuries were last year, and Sanders is gone, but there is a whole new scheme to etch out. It is not going to be easy, Capers is a great coach, but a lot of the first year is going to be teaching, locking down responsibilities to memory. I hope it is a slow process, meaning the transition to the 3-4, I think he really needs to bastardize it to give guys like Kampman a chance of being productive. I am not sold on Hawk being a middle linebacker in this scheme, and I am certainly not pleased with seeing Barnett in this scheme. I understand the concept of one gap responsibility in Capers 3-4, but Barnett is still going to need to take on blockers something he fails at regularly.

Offensively if this team can get the tackles straightened out, something no team wants on their "to do" list at the beginning of the season, but if they can get some consistent production out of Clifton and the new right tackle this offense is going to be fun to watch. It could be the next "Greatest Show on Turf".

[Partial]

Nutz you watched the games last year. 6-10 doesn't tell the whole story. Its very doom and gloom to predict that it will continue to rain shit on the Packers.

How doesn't that tell the story? They started out hot then faded big time. It's a very accurate representation because it IS the only representation.

[Fritz]

I don't think Clifton was a red chipper last year. I do think Collins was, however.

I believe that the core of this team will improve, mostly, and this team will be successful this year. I think we're going to be feeling good next offseason.

[sharpe1027]

Blue Chippers:
2009 - Jennings
2004 - Favre

Red Chippers:
2009 - Driver, Woodson, Harris, Clifton, Kampman, Rodgers
2004 - Driver, Walker, Green, Clifton, Harris, Wahle, Tauscher

I don't see an immense amount of more talent on the roster now than 2004, for example. If Rodgers can develop into a blue chip talent, we'll have a chance annually like we did with Favre.

Woodson was in the running for Defensive player of the year. Collins had a great year, even if it was only one good year after several shaky ones, you gave J. Walker credit for one good year. Clifton was not very good last year.

[Gunakor]

What leads anyone to think that all of a sudden this team is going to jump to the top of the NFL?

I can't be sure if it happens all of a sudden. I kinda doubt it. But I am encouraged by the direction the team has taken defensively this offseason, and I do expect remarkable improvement. We don't have to be the #1 ranked defense in the NFL right away for me to be satisfied with the work done over the past couple of months. If we become a top 10 defense in the next year or two, partly as a result of the moves made both on the coaching staff and the roster this offseason, I'm happy.

I expect us to contend for a division title this year, but that's the extent of my expectation for this season. Anything beyond that is, as you say, just hope. But, looking forward, taking into account the expected development of the players we have now in addition to further expected upgrades at certain positions in upcoming seasons, that hope should become expectation sooner rather than later. That seems reasonable.

[Deputy Nutz]

I guess I would have liked our moves on defense a little bit better if Thompson would have brought in a couple of free agents that have worked in a 3-4 system, and I am not talking about a third rate safety either. This whole roster is filled with defensive players that have only played in a 3-4 at the NFL level. I think they can transition but not completely in one year. More bads than good in my opinion.

I love Dom Capers and was the guy I wanted to be hired, and again he is a great coach, but 2009 is carrying way too many expectations based on just the hire and two draft picks.

[Gunakor]

I guess I would have liked our moves on defense a little bit better if Thompson would have brought in a couple of free agents that have worked in a 3-4 system, and I am not talking about a third rate safety either. This whole roster is filled with defensive players that have only played in a 3-4 at the NFL level. I think they can transition but not completely in one year. More bads than good in my opinion.

I love Dom Capers and was the guy I wanted to be hired, and again he is a great coach, but 2009 is carrying way too many expectations based on just the hire and two draft picks.

2009 isn't the year of expectations. If you expect us to dominate everyone that lines up across from us THIS year, you are likely setting yourself up for disappointment. This particular season - the 2009 season - isn't the one I'm looking forward to. My hope and expectation is that this season shows real improvement, making future seasons worth looking forward to.

To anyone who thinks this draft and this coaching staff is going to amount to an immediate turnaround and make this team a SB contender right away, Nutz is right. We just switched over to a hybrid look on defense, and will probably phase the hybrid out as we become more of a pure 3-4 team. It's gonna take some time to iron out the wrinkles. I warn you not to place too much expectation on 2009 alone.