"Patience While the Packers Grow Up"

[Fritz]

Since teams often do contracts as the deadline for cap money use nears around midseason, it would make sense to wait for a bit to see how players like Kampman and Collins do in this transition to the 3-4.

I would imagine too that if Collins and Kampman adapt about equally well to the new scheme, a "good soldier" like Kampman might get preferential treatment in the pecking order over someone like Collins - if Collins holds out at all from training camp.

I get a sense the team feels like it knows better what it has in Colledge and Spitz and will do their deals first, then wait and see how Kampman and Collins fair in the new scheme.

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.

[vince]

Since teams often do contracts as the deadline for cap money use nears around midseason, it would make sense to wait for a bit to see how players like Kampman and Collins do in this transition to the 3-4.

I would imagine too that if Collins and Kampman adapt about equally well to the new scheme, a "good soldier" like Kampman might get preferential treatment in the pecking order over someone like Collins - if Collins holds out at all from training camp.

I get a sense the team feels like it knows better what it has in Colledge and Spitz and will do their deals first, then wait and see how Kampman and Collins fair in the new scheme.

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.

100% agree with all that. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Pickett now that Raji is on board. My hope would be that TT shows sincere interest in re-upping Pickett, who then shows some loyalty and is a relatively easy signing. He's said many times that he feels at home in Green Bay. I think if he has his way, he'll be motivated to stay in GB, even if faced with the prospects of possibly getting fewer snaps over time.

[Scott Campbell]

I do think people are undervaluing a guy like Pickett. I think he's still fairly young for a defensive lineman, and I think he's an important piece of the puzzle. I believe he's shown what he can do in the interior of the line and might be worth getting a new contract to, maybe in training camp.

I think Pickett counted about $3M against our cap last year. I'm not sure what his cap number is for this year. Even if he got a pretty signficant raise, he wouldn't count that much more against our cap number.

[Scott Campbell]

I think 21.5 million is enough to get this done,

Colledge, Collins, Kampman, Pickett, Spitz, Bigby, Williams, Blackmon, Jolly, Chillar,...

As the devil's advocate, if special teams guy Jarrett Bush got a $1 million signing bonus, Grant with no leverage and a half year starting in got $4 mil, and Rodgers and Jennings got upwards of $10 mil, what do each of these guys warrant under a pay-as-you-go approach? What would you be pushing for if you had the track record of Aaron Kampman? How about Collins coming off what will presumably be 5 years of starting and a pro bowl - all under a rookie contract?

It may be doable, but it'll be very tight and there is a distinct possibility that a guy like Kampman doesn't fit, not to mention the possibility of losing Clifton, Jolly and Chillar altogether (Not that I'm suggesting any of that is catastrophic).

Some of these guys may get pushed into free agency and threaten to go elsewhere or at minimum have their signings go to next year's non-cap year (if that's what happens), and be added to the shorter list of key guys - Driver, Jenkins, Barbre (potentially), Jackson and Crosby. Since Tramon will still be an RFA, perhaps that makes the most sense. I believe Bigby would be an RFA next year as well due to the possible added year of RFA.

Keep in mind that on any new contracts, only a portion of the cap number would eat into our available cap space. Example - if Collins already counts $3M against our cap number this year, granting him an extension that put his cap number at $5M wouldn't reduce our space by $5M. It would reduce it by the incremental value of the new contract - or $2M in this case.

[pbmax]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.

[Fritz]

Which means you could theoretically front load a deal - if you tell him you'll pay him six mill or seven mill this year, you eat up say four more than you would have anyway, Collins gets a big payday in return for future years at a more reasonable price. The understanding would have to be though that this year's big payday would be a front-loading - not that if Collins gets back to the pro bowl he'll say he feels he's underpaid in the next year (when his sal cap number would go down) and want a new contract.

If he did that, he'd be gone.

[vince]

Yes, good point.

Here are each player's current cap number as best as I can determine.

Kampman.....6,000,000
Pickett..........3,500,000
Collins..........3,000,000
Chillar...........2,025,000
Bigby............1,545,000
Williams..........900,000
Colledge.........855,000
Spitz..............715,000
Blackmon.......638,000
Moll...............566,000
Jolly...............553,000

[Scott Campbell]

Which means you could theoretically front load a deal - if you tell him you'll pay him six mill or seven mill this year, you eat up say four more than you would have anyway, Collins gets a big payday in return for future years at a more reasonable price. The understanding would have to be though that this year's big payday would be a front-loading - not that if Collins gets back to the pro bowl he'll say he feels he's underpaid in the next year (when his sal cap number would go down) and want a new contract.

If he did that, he'd be gone.

Safeties don't get the huge money that other positions do. They're paid more like TE's or FB's.

[vince]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.

I'm trying to throw some numbers out there to figure out what these guys might be demanding. It's easy to say, "Collins should be a priority." or "Colledge should be next up." like many have, as well as "TT will and should never give a safety or guard $7 mil./yr." and one could even agree with both of those statements, but that doesn't get a deal done.

I'm with the "wait and see" camp on Collins, but it's fair to assume he is interested in getting something reasonably close to market rate for his services. What is that? I don't know, but his partner out in Hawaii has had a say in establishing it. Given your statements about TT's likely position, it suggests that signing some of these guys might not be such a slam dunk. What does Colledge think he could fetch on the open market? Hard to say, but I'd like to find some existing comparables for a 4-year solid starter coming off his rookie contract to have some basis for what I think he should be worth in today's continually escalating marketplace. In the time I took, I found Snee. He's likely better than Colledge, but it's at least something to work from.

I will say that I think TT got a steal with Jennings' new deal. I was a little quick in looking at Jennings guaranteed money and suggesting it is his cap number for this season... His cap number for '09 is 8.2 mil according to JSO.

[Lurker64]

Kampman.....6,000,000
Pickett..........3,500,000
Collins..........3,000,000
Chillar...........2,025,000
Bigby............1,545,000
Williams..........900,000
Colledge.........855,000
Spitz..............715,000
Blackmon.......638,000
Moll...............566,000
Jolly...............553,000

Looking towards the future:

Kampman will be reupped or tagged and traded, depending on how he adapts to the new defense. He's a "wait and see" guy, IMO.

Collins is likely a contentious negotiation as I believe Collins thinks he's worth significantly more than TT is willing to pay a safety. This one worries me.

Chillar is likely gone after this year, if not after camp.

Bigby might return, but Smith may surpass him at SS, guys like him aren't exactly special on the FA market, and if he does return he's not looking at a significant raise, as he already makes a fair amount.

Williams is an RFA next year, so you just tender him high and put him down under "next year's business" while working on a long-term deal all the while. Thompson's willingness to compensate him over the ERFA tender should make this a fairly smooth negotiation.

Colledge is reportedly Thompson's #1 priority after Jennings is done, and I think that a roughly $5m per year deal with significant incentives if he ends up starting at tackle should get it done. This is a big raise.

Spitz will return. How much he gets paid depends a lot on whether or not he wins the starting C job in camp, and how he does at it during the season. Provided he wins the job and plays well, he's looking at about 3m per year plus incentives. This is a sizeable raise.

For Blackmon? I'm not sure about him, he'll get paid as a return man and not as a CB, since that's really what he's on the roster for. I'm not honestly sure how much return guys make, excepting that ridiculous contract Hester signed (which is partially justified as they're playing him at WR).

Moll has to fight for a roster spot this year, and the odds of him making the roster aren't great. He's a journeyman, and shouldn't either cost a lot or be terribly missed.

Jolly could be interesting. A lot depends on his legal situation, and how well he plays at DE. He's probably a guy you want to keep and he's looking at a significant raise.

Before the season starts, I think priorities are Colledge and Collins (if he's willing to take a reasonable deal). Most of the rest of the guys are in "wait and see" territory, and wouldn't command huge deals if they hit the open market (as mid-range players often have significant inertia when offers are comparable, and they're happy where they are.)

[pbmax]

Clifton is not going to have the same cap number either, even if he comes back. And I think we'll see a Brett next to Ted in the skybox before T2 gives $7 million or so per year to a guard and safety.

Jennings got nowhere near $10 mil, I understand rounding but that is too far. If he fails to hit incentives, his deal is just over $7 million per year. $7.5/year max.

I'm trying to throw some numbers out there to figure out what these guys might be demanding. It's easy to say, "Collins should be a priority." or "Colledge should be next up." like many have, as well as "TT will and should never give a safety or guard $7 mil./yr." and one could even agree with both of those statements, but that doesn't get a deal done.

I'm with the "wait and see" camp on Collins, but it's fair to assume he is interested in getting something reasonably close to market rate for his services. What is that? I don't know, but his partner out in Hawaii has had a say in establishing it. Given your statements about TT's likely position, it suggests that signing some of these guys might not be such a slam dunk. What does Colledge think he could fetch on the open market? Hard to say, but I'd like to find some existing comparables for a 4-year solid starter coming off his rookie year to have some basis for what I think he should be worth in today's continually escalating marketplace. The closest I could find in the time I took was Snee. He's likely better than Colledge, but it's at least something to work from.

I will say that I think TT got a steal with Jennings' new deal. I was a little quick in looking at Jennings guaranteed money and suggesting it is his cap number for this season... His cap number for '09 is 8.2 mil according to JSO.

And it is possible Colledge gets close to Snee's number, if there is a cap and it keeps going up. If the owners win some savings, then either the cap will not rise for some time or it will need to readjust downward. Snee might have gotten the son-in-law bonus though.

Wilson vs. Collins:

...........Sk.....Int......Yds.....TD......Lng.....PD......FF.....Fmb......FR......Yds.....TD......Tkl.....Ast 
Wilson...2.96....2.88....69.28...0.32....35.00...9.44....2.08....0.00....0.96....21.44...0.32....79.20...18.24

Collins..0.00....2.89....95.21...1.05....29.25...11.02...1.31....0.00....0.00....0.00....0.00....60.59...13.90

Numbers are averages per season, assuming 16 games started (like ERA). A lot depends on whether Collins is the guy from last year or the previous 3. I can see his point more clearly while looking at these stats. He might be unlikely to duplicate that year in a new D, considering it took time in the last one.

[vince]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

So, just in simple pay-as-you-go terms (no front- or back-loading of cap space) and hypothetical round-number contracts with incentives built into the number that increase with the cap increase, I am going to throw some numbers together to see what this all looks like...

.................................................. ............................................Additi onal ’09 cap hit (in $ millions)
Kampman - $ 7 mil. NEXT YEAR.............................................. ......0
Collins - $ 5 mil. (I agree with you, I don’t think he’ll like this…).......2
Colledge - $ 5 mil. .................................................. ...................4
Spitz - $ 4 mil............................................... .............................3.5
Pickett - $ 4 mil............................................... ...........................1
Chillar – GONE.............................................. ..............................0
Bigby - $ 2 mil NEXT YEAR.............................................. .............0
Williams - $ 1.7 mil tender NEXT YEAR............................................0
Blackmon - $ 2 mil............................................... ......................1.5
Jolly - $ 4 mil............................................... ..............................3.5
Rooks............................................. ...........................................7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.................................................. .............................................22.5

I just took a guess with the rookies. I think the allowable cap space last year was $5.5. However, with 2 first rounders this year, that number is sure to rise I would think.

So, assuming the annual contract numbers above and no front- (or back-)loading of cap hit, and likely losing Chillar and Kampman, the players listed can be re-upped this year, give or take. The team will also want to hold onto some contingency cap space also though.

Keeping Kampman, who I believe will be just fine in the new D, and coming to terms with Collins, appear to be the biggest potential sticking points with the list.

I also think Jolly may not be re-upped, but that's just my personal opinion, and that is contingent on Harrell contributing. He could be another guy that gets pushed into next year or is lost to FA.

[vince]

Pushing Kampman, Bigby and Williams into next year makes re-uppiing the 2010 list of key players more challenging, although I have no idea how much cap space the team currently has committed for 2010.

Contracts Set to Expire in 2010
Donald Driver $6 mil
Cullen Jenkins $6 mil
Brandon Jackson $2 mil
James Jones $2 mil
Aaron Rouse $ 1.5 mil
Alan Barbre $ 3.5 mil
Corey Hall $ 1.5 mil
Desmond Bishop $ 1 mil
Mason Crosby $ 2 mil
Brett Goode $ .5 mil
Danny Lansanah $ 1 mil
Anthony Smith $ 2 mil
Duke Preston $ 2 mil
Projected
Aaron Kampman $10 mil
Atari Bigby $2 mil
Tramon Williams $2 mil

Of this list, I'd say Driver, Jenkins, Jackson, Kampman, Barbre, Crosby, Bigby (or Smith), and Williams would project to be key players. While it's only 8 guys instead of 11 from this year (including Jennings), Driver, Jenkins, and Kampman would all project to be in the $6 - $10 mil range, so while it maybe gets simpler with fewer guys, there are still some potentially serious dollars likely to go out the door.

While it appears doable while maintaining the established pay-as-you-go principles, thanks again to some cap carry-forward, things are certainly tightening up in the personnel budget department for the foreseeable future.

[Scott Campbell]

I think Collins biggest gripe may be that he's in the last year of his deal, and its his turn. $3M isn't bad for a safety that's performed the way he has. A modest per year increase could be secondary to cashing in on the accompanying signing bonus from his perspective.

[Lurker64]

Thank you Lurk. You skipped Pickett though… How do you see that playing out?

That's a wait and see, IMO. Personally, I think that the reason they've had Raji at DE and not at the Nose is that he's not ready to play NT in the NFL. He's got the body-type for it, but not the mindset or the experience. DE is, in a certain sense "easier", as he's going to see fewer complicated blocking schemes, and he'll be playing in a spot where his natural leverage is more of an advantage. It's definitely less of an adjustment for Raji who usually played in the B-gap in college, as he'll be lining up maybe a foot from where he's used to lining up (and "contain" isn't one of his jobs.)

Pickett is definitely a guy you feel okay about playing in the A-Gap, but he's not going to be a pro-bowler or a superstar.

So I think they evaluate the following things:
1) How ready is Raji to play the NT spot?
2) How effective is the Raji/Pickett tandem at DE/NT in the base defense?
3) How are we doing for depth at DE/NT?

I think that the more ready Raji is to play NT (which will be his eventual position) and the less effective having Raji playing next to Pickett, the better odds we have of just letting Pickett walk. We have a lot more guys with a shot to make the roster than can play DE (Jolly, Jenkins, Raji, Harrell, Malone, Wynn, Montgomery) than we do to play NT (Pickett, Raji, Harrell). Muhtadi and Toribio are purely PS players at this point. Generally, you want to have 4 DEs, 2 NTs, and one guy who can play both DE and NT for your DL spots. So if Muhtadi or Toribio progresses well on the PS this year, and both Raji and Harrell play well, Pickett may be gone.

Also, working in favor of the "Pickett is gone" theory is that the 2010 draft appears to be absolutely stacked with DT talent. Depending on various unpredictable draft factors, Pickett may be expendable if Raji is ready to start at the nose; as the NT is already a specialist position and the backup usually doesn't see a lot of play. At the very least, the number of quality DTs in the draft probably hurts Pickett's value on the open market.

If we do decide to keep Pickett, I could see his cap number being in the $5-$6 million range, a la Marcus Stroud or Kris Jenkins ($2-3 million or so signing bonus, and a salary that jumps around plus some incentives), and I believe his cap number last year was $3 million, but I don't know what it was for this year.