Ryan Grant compared to others

[Patler]

According the JSO, only seven backs have rushed for more yards than Ryan Grant over the the last two seasons. That certainly isn't surprising. What did surprise me is that of the seven who had more yards than Grant, only three had a better average per carry than Grant.

2009 should reveal a lot about whether Grant is closer to the 2007 version, the 2008 version, or something in between.

[Waldo]

Re: Ryan Grant compared to others

According the JSO, only seven backs have rushed for more yards than Ryan Grant over the the last two seasons. That certainly isn't surprising. What did surprise me is that of the seven who had more yards than Grant, only three had a better average per carry than Grant.

2009 should reveal a lot about whether Grant is closer to the 2007 version, the 2008 version, or something in between.

It's that whole scoring thing, or lack thereof, that is Grant's problem.

The ypc, while concerning, isn't that bad.

You expect a back with his workload to threaten double digits. Less than 5 last year is beyond pitiful.

[Patler]

Re: Ryan Grant compared to others

It's that whole scoring thing, or lack thereof, that is Grant's problem.

The ypc, while concerning, isn't that bad.

You expect a back with his workload to threaten double digits. Less than 5 last year is beyond pitiful.

On the other hand, the 8 TDs he had in 2007 on less than 200 carries was pretty good; so again we are faced with the question: Which back is Ryan Grant, the 2007 back or the 2008 back?

[HarveyWallbangers]

He'll be somewhere in between. He won't likely average 5.1 yards/carry again--as he had an unusually large share of long runs in 2007. He was hurt for a good portion of 2008. If I had to guess, I'd say Grant puts up these numbers:

300 carries, 1320 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 25 receptions

[Patler]

He'll be somewhere in between. He won't likely average 5.1 yards/carry again--as he had an unusually large share of long runs in 2007. He was hurt for a good portion of 2008. If I had to guess, I'd say Grant puts up these numbers:

300 carries, 1320 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 25 receptions

That's about what I expect for him too, if he stays healthy. Maybe with a few more TDs simply because I expect the Packer offense to score well and he will have a lot of good scoring opportunities.

I do have concerns about his ability to avoid the nagging injuries. One of the reasons he lost his prominent role at Notre Dame was because of injuries that limited his playing time and/or effectiveness. No one ever seemed to question his toughness, or willingness to play when hurt; he just seemed to have legitimate pulls, sprains and strains that limited him with some regularity.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I'm not too worried. Not much more so than any other player. He stayed healthy in 2007. In 2008 he held out and then got injured right away. That often happens to guys that hold out. Once he got healthy about midseason, he stayed healthy the rest of the year. RBs get injured. They take more punishment than most players on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt, but more because he's a RB and not because I think he's overly injury prone.

[vince]

He'll be somewhere in between. He won't likely average 5.1 yards/carry again--as he had an unusually large share of long runs in 2007. He was hurt for a good portion of 2008. If I had to guess, I'd say Grant puts up these numbers:

300 carries, 1320 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 8 TDs, 25 receptions

If the defense improves and holds up throughout games this year, and if the o-line is more aggressive and effective run blocking which I expect them to be this year, I think he'll be closer to 1500 yards, but I agree with everything else you list there.

[Patler]

I'm not too worried. Not much more so than any other player. He stayed healthy in 2007. In 2008 he held out and then got injured right away. That often happens to guys that hold out. Once he got healthy about midseason, he stayed healthy the rest of the year. RBs get injured. They take more punishment than most players on the field. I wouldn't be surprised if he got hurt, but more because he's a RB and not because I think he's overly injury prone.

I'm not real worried either. However, after watching his career at ND, the start of 2008 seemed very familiar. Something that limited his practice time and limited his effectiveness even without keeping him out of the games completely.

On a side note, Grant was not completely healthy in 2007, either. He came from the Giants with a hamstring problem that kept him limited in practices for a short while, which was then blamed for him not being ready to play the first week even though Jackson was their only healthy back at the time. Besides, he didn't play enough in the first 6 games to get injured,! (Although I recognize injuries come in practices, too.) I think his problem at ND was often hamstrings, too. That was the problem in '08 too, wasn't it?

[HarveyWallbangers]

I just think that most full-time RBs are going to have injuries come up. It's whether they can effectively play with those injuries. Ahman Green seemed to be nicked up every year, but he ended up having a great and relatively healthy career for the Pack. Levens was nicked up a lot--once he became a full-time RB. It's a concern with most RBs.

Just look at the top RBs last year who weren't rookies or carrying a full load for the first time. Almost all of them have been injured.

Peterson was injured in 2007 and going back to his college days.
Portis used to get nicked up a lot earlier in his career--although he's been healthier the last two years.
Tomlinson had injuries last year--although he's been really durable in his career.
Thomas Jones has been healthy most of his career.
Jacobs has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Jackson has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Gore has been injured a lot in his career--going back to college.
Jamal Lewis has been healthy most of his career.
Westbrook has been injured a lot in his career.
Ronnie Brown has been injured a lot in his career.
Barber got injuries last year.
Larry Johnson has been injured a lot the last two years.

The rest were pretty much rookies or in their first year as a full-time starter.

[Scott Campbell]

I just think that most full-time RBs are going to have injuries come up. It's whether they can effectively play with those injuries. Ahman Green seemed to be nicked up every year, but he ended up having a great and relatively healthy career for the Pack. Levens was nicked up a lot--once he became a full-time RB. It's a concern with most RBs.

Just look at the top RBs last year who weren't rookies or carrying a full load for the first time. Almost all of them have been injured.

Peterson was injured in 2007 and going back to his college days.
Portis used to get nicked up a lot earlier in his career--although he's been healthier the last two years.
Tomlinson had injuries last year--although he's been really durable in his career.
Thomas Jones has been healthy most of his career.
Jacobs has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Jackson has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Gore has been injured a lot in his career--going back to college.
Jamal Lewis has been healthy most of his career.
Westbrook has been injured a lot in his career.
Ronnie Brown has been injured a lot in his career.
Barber got injuries last year.
Larry Johnson has been injured a lot the last two years.

The rest were pretty much rookies or in their first year as a full-time starter.

You just made a hell of a case for going with a 2 back rotation.

[Patler]

I just think that most full-time RBs are going to have injuries come up. It's whether they can effectively play with those injuries. Ahman Green seemed to be nicked up every year, but he ended up having a great and relatively healthy career for the Pack. Levens was nicked up a lot--once he became a full-time RB. It's a concern with most RBs.

Just look at the top RBs last year who weren't rookies or carrying a full load for the first time. Almost all of them have been injured.

Peterson was injured in 2007 and going back to his college days.
Portis used to get nicked up a lot earlier in his career--although he's been healthier the last two years.
Tomlinson had injuries last year--although he's been really durable in his career.
Thomas Jones has been healthy most of his career.
Jacobs has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Jackson has missed a lot of time the last two years.
Gore has been injured a lot in his career--going back to college.
Jamal Lewis has been healthy most of his career.
Westbrook has been injured a lot in his career.
Ronnie Brown has been injured a lot in his career.
Barber got injuries last year.
Larry Johnson has been injured a lot the last two years.

The rest were pretty much rookies or in their first year as a full-time starter.

Of course Harvey. All starting RBs get banged up, and it is not even uncommon for them to miss games. There was no need to list every running back who was injured, I will gladly concede that they all are, for the most part. It's the nature of the job, and why their effective careers are quite short.

However, in discussing if Grant is likely to be more like 2007 (relatively injury free) or more like 2008 (injury limited to some degree) I can't ignore the fact that what I saw happen in 2008 was what I also saw during most of his career at ND. For much of his ND career he did not perform his best, and it was attributed to injuries. It certainly was never because of an unwillingness to play, or lack of effort, but his speed and quickness just seemed missing at times.

While some backs get injured and seem little affected, and/or are back to full strength in just a couple weeks, Grant's injuries seem to linger longer. He lost his starting spot at ND one year because he wasn't available to practice for quite a while, even though he played in most games. While he didn't lose his starting role in GB, he didn't practice much for all of preseason and well into the regular season in '08, and the consensus seems to be that it was responsible for his very poor early season performance. What we saw in the first half of 2008 was common for him. at ND.

My concern is that he will continue to get the nagging injuries that keep him out of practice and cause him to perform more like in 2008, rather than the somewhat better level that you and I both agree he is capable of.

It's not a question of being injury free.