Do we keep ALL THREE FULLBACKS?

[OkayKyle]

Hall vs. Kuhn is an interesting battle. At FB, I thought Kuhn was better last year. However, I won't profess to know who is better on special teams, and that will likely determine their fate. Hall was drafted by the Packers. At this point, that likely doesn't matter. Hall is just one year younger than Kuhn. On the surface, Hall has a slight advantage, but I wouldn't be shocked if they kept Kuhn.

I thought that Korey Hall played great last year - I never was a fan of Kuhn as the lead blocker. According to Football's Outsider's Almanac, with Hall in the lineup, Grant averaged 4.2 yards per carry and had a DVOA of -3.2%; without him, Grant averaged 2.9 yards per carry with a DVOA of -26.9%.

DVOA -- Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a simple idea: We take every play from the NFL season and compare it to the league average on the same play, after adjusting for down, distance, game situation, and the quality of the opponent.

So with Hall in the lineup last year, Grant was 3.2% less effective than the league average. Not great, but much better than -26.9%. Hall is extremely effective at cut blocking around the perimeter, but I think Johnson is going to be a bruiser inside. Like many of you, I believe Kuhn is the odd man out.

[Scott Campbell]

Hall vs. Kuhn is an interesting battle. At FB, I thought Kuhn was better last year. However, I won't profess to know who is better on special teams, and that will likely determine their fate. Hall was drafted by the Packers. At this point, that likely doesn't matter. Hall is just one year younger than Kuhn. On the surface, Hall has a slight advantage, but I wouldn't be shocked if they kept Kuhn.

I thought that Korey Hall played great last year - I never was a fan of Kuhn as the lead blocker. According to Football's Outsider's Almanac, with Hall in the lineup, Grant averaged 4.2 yards per carry and had a DVOA of -3.2%; without him, Grant averaged 2.9 yards per carry with a DVOA of -26.9%.

DVOA -- Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a simple idea: We take every play from the NFL season and compare it to the league average on the same play, after adjusting for down, distance, game situation, and the quality of the opponent.

So with Hall in the lineup last year, Grant was 3.2% less effective than the league average. Not great, but much better than -26.9%. Hall is extremely effective at cut blocking around the perimeter, but I think Johnson is going to be a bruiser inside. Like many of you, I believe Kuhn is the odd man out.

Nice post, and very interesting concept. Thanks for the research.

[Scott Campbell]

Hall's problem has been staying healthy; something both Bennett and MM have mentioned at various times about him. In fact, "availability" has been a common theme in many of the coaches remarks. Even TT mentioned it the other day in one of his interviews. I think that some close roster decisions will be made based on that, and Hall vs. Kuhn could be one of those.

Good point. It looks like there are a few battles with little separation of on field performance. And if that's true, Wynn may also be in trouble.

[MichiganPackerFan]

Re: Do we keep ALL THREE FULLBACKS?

I can't see us keeping 3, and my money is on Kuhn as the odd man out. Quinn is a lock to make the roster. IMO

Agreed. Does Kuhn have any trade value? I'd imagine the staff has already been looking into that.

[Patler]

Re: Do we keep ALL THREE FULLBACKS?

I can't see us keeping 3, and my money is on Kuhn as the odd man out. Quinn is a lock to make the roster. IMO

Agreed. Does Kuhn have any trade value? I'd imagine the staff has already been looking into that.

Good question. A lot of teams don't value FBs very highly, and might not want to risk anything more than taking the chance of not getting him after he is released. On the other hand, if you need one now, a 7th in the 2010 draft is a fairly cheep price.

The one thing going for trading Kuhn is his experience. He is what he is. Teams can see what they are getting against NFL competition. He is less of a crap-shoot than a rookie, or someone who has bounced from team to team for a couple years without making final roster, or without playing if he did make one. If someone needs what Kuhn is, a 7th is not much to pay for it, and they can rely on getting a certain performance from Kuhn.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I thought that Korey Hall played great last year - I never was a fan of Kuhn as the lead blocker. According to Football's Outsider's Almanac, with Hall in the lineup, Grant averaged 4.2 yards per carry and had a DVOA of -3.2%; without him, Grant averaged 2.9 yards per carry with a DVOA of -26.9%.

DVOA -- Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It's a simple idea: We take every play from the NFL season and compare it to the league average on the same play, after adjusting for down, distance, game situation, and the quality of the opponent.

So with Hall in the lineup last year, Grant was 3.2% less effective than the league average. Not great, but much better than -26.9%. Hall is extremely effective at cut blocking around the perimeter, but I think Johnson is going to be a bruiser inside. Like many of you, I believe Kuhn is the odd man out.

Interesting stats and they are good to read. I won't call them useless because they differ from my opinion. I just wonder what the stats behind the stats say. Hall missed 5 games last year. In those 5 games, Green Bay played teams that gave up ypc of 3.4, 4.0, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.9. Three of the game he missed were early in the year when Grant was getting over his injury. In the 5 games he started, Green Bay played teams that gave up ypc of 4.2, 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, and 5.1. Now, looking at the numbers, the difference can't be explained away by opponent only, but it points to some of the reasons why Hall looked better. Also, to my untrained eye it seemed like Kuhn was the FB more on short yardage plays. That would skew the stats a bit also--as you are less likely to get a higher ypc if you higher proportion of plays on the goalline or in short yardage situations.

The coaches know a lot more than me in evaluating the FBs and special teams play. Ultimately, we'll know who they think is a better player by who they keep. I expect it will be Hall, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kuhn is judged to be more valuable. I don't think there is a lot that separates the two players.

[sharpe1027]

Interesting discussion. If you are correct that, Kuhn was used more on short yardage than other situations it would make a difference. Desite compensation for down/distance/opponent in the OP's stat, I would guess that Green Bay was below the league average on short-yardage last year. Thus, I would agree that Kuhn would get a disproportionate skewing of his stats; that is, unless you think Kuhn was the main cause of their failure on short yardage...

[KYPack]

Yeah, if I'm breaking down the fullback race, I see us keeping two and I see Kuhn as the odd man out. There's no way any NFL team keeps 3 fullbacks, unless one of their fullbacks was their primary running back (like McClain in Baltimore). Each of the fullbacks has their strengths and weaknesses, and I think the best package is Hall and Johnson.

Quinn is the biggest hammer of the bunch, and is the most physical and imposing. Probably already the most punishing lead blocker of the bunch, but every part of his game needs seasoning.

Hall is reliable and dependable. He's not a great lead-blocker, but he's solid in blitz pickup, he's our best receiving FB, and he's a core special teamer.

Kuhn is bigger and more physical than Hall, has slightly more lapses, and is a good special teamer but not really better than Hall. Where Kuhn made his money on the roster over the last couple years was "best lead blocking FB" and "best ballcarrier at FB".

I see Kuhn's advantage over Hall as a better lead blocker being made mostly irrelevant by Johnson, and Kuhn's ability to carry the ball out of the back field being considered inessential, as the FB dive was never a very successful play on short yardage for us anyway. Kuhns a pretty good player though, if anybody else around the league could use a traditional FB, he's worth a look.

Lurk, that's a good post. I don't like Hall, but him and Johnson will probably stick.

The post with the analysis from FO is an example of why I'm gradually souring on that site. FO is a liar figuring and figures that bullshit you from time to time.

All 3 FB's have big gaps in their game

Hall is a very poor lead blocker and picks 'em up sometimes but misses blitz pick-up too much for me. He's a poor runner, but a nifty little pass catcher. he was pretty good on ST in '07, but I've seen him get out of his lane and miss a lot on ST since then

Kuhn can basically only block.

Johnson is a good kid and a hammer of a blocker. He can't catch and is a rookie. I'd hate to have a rookie responsible for blitz pick-up when ARod means so much to us + we have no back-up QB.

I'd guess Hall & Johnson stick on the roster, but I'd like to see us get a LeRon McClain type guy in the future. The present scheme of the moose type fullback is like playing 10 on 11 much of the time. A FB that can block, catch passes and run effectively would do so much for MM and his gameplan, it ain't funny.

[DonHutson]

I see Kuhn's advantage over Hall as a better lead blocker being made mostly irrelevant by Johnson

That's a much more concise way of stating what I was trying to say.

[mraynrand]

The real question is which guy will be the guy to run the 'fullback blast' or the 'fullback dive' when the game is on the line and McCarthy wants to put the ball in the hands of his playmaker FB on a critical fourth and 1.

[retailguy]

The real question is which guy will be the guy to run the 'fullback blast' or the 'fullback dive' when the game is on the line and McCarthy wants to put the ball in the hands of his playmaker FB on a critical fourth and 1.

lol

[rbaloha1]

Hall makes it over Kuhn due to special teams. QJ is the next Wil Henderson.

[CaptainKickass]

The real question is which guy will be the guy to run the 'fullback blast' or the 'fullback dive' when the game is on the line and McCarthy wants to put the ball in the hands of his playmaker FB on a critical fourth and 1.

lol

I'd give it to the bruiser, rookie or not, Johnson hammers it for the one important yard. This is one of the the simplest most fundamental plays and we need a big, physical hard hittin' Mofo to pick up that 1 yard. Quinn Johnson is that dude.

.

[Bossman641]

The real question is which guy will be the guy to run the 'fullback blast' or the 'fullback dive' when the game is on the line and McCarthy wants to put the ball in the hands of his playmaker FB on a critical fourth and 1.

Did you have to remind me??

[MichiganPackerFan]

The real question is which guy will be the guy to run the 'fullback blast' or the 'fullback dive' when the game is on the line and McCarthy wants to put the ball in the hands of his playmaker FB on a critical fourth and 1.

If he calls that again, I will have to buy a new tv after I'm done throwing everything in sight. (I think there's a thread in the romper room that could help....)