Donald Driver

[Fritz]

I find Waldo's thesis regarding the way people evaluate players to be most fascinating. It's really getting into the realm of memory research - how the brain collects and stores information and makes evaluations based upon those impressions it keeps.

This is true in many facets of life. A person can tell you a hundred and ten things that are positive about you - you're smart, you're funny, you're attractive - but if that person once tells you your hair is bad, you're likely to remember that person as being critical of you.

My own impression of Jones is very favorable, despite wondering what the hell TT was doing when he drafted this no-name wide receiver. That impression comes in part from a memory of a play he made - was it against Denver in 07? - in which he made a catch and split defenders then cut back all the way to the end zone. He kinda zig-zagged his way in. I also remember him getting squashed between receivers and having his helmet knocked off, but getting to the end zone any way. That may have been the preseason, I don't know.

But the point is, Waldo is probably correct in terms of how people's impressions are made. But as those impressions change, so does the interpretation. See Favre, Brett.

[Waldo]

You can hypothesize about why he didn't get the ball, but your anlaysis of Koren seems to be limited to your memory of about 5 plays that Favre tried to force the ball to him.

He played 8 games (technically 9, but his first game back he was on the field for 1 offensive play). In that time he was targeted 34 times, which would be about 70 targets over a normal season, an average of more than 4 per game. Over that span, after Greg and Don he was clearly the #3 WR, and pushing Greg for #2 in amount of use (Greg had 84 targets in 2007). Jones had 80 targets in 2007 as well, but almost 60 of them were prior to Koren's return, after Koren returned, his targets were slashed. Unfortunately too, Jones was averaging more than 14 YPR, Koren was averaging 11 YPR. Greg was averaging more than 17 YPR.

[Waldo]

My own impression of Jones is very favorable, despite wondering what the hell TT was doing when he drafted this no-name wide receiver. That impression comes in part from a memory of a play he made - was it against Denver in 07? - in which he made a catch and split defenders then cut back all the way to the end zone. He kinda zig-zagged his way in. I also remember him getting squashed between receivers and having his helmet knocked off, but getting to the end zone any way. That may have been the preseason, I don't know.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

Everybody remembers those 2 very distinct Jones-defining plays.

[Patler]

Don has major holding problems. I believe that he was flagged for it 6 times last year, making him one of the most flagged players on the team, and he was flagged again for holding in PS.

I don't know how many he was flagged for, but he had 3 holding penalties that were accepted last year. There were quite a few players with more accepted penalties than Driver's 5, including the ones you would expect like Colledge, Clifton, Bush and Williams and one you might not expect (because he played little) Tony Moll. Surprisingly, I think Moll lead the team in penalties accepted..

[hoosier]

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

What the play-by-play doesn't show is that the score would have been 14-0 (or 10-0) GB if he doesn't boot those two. Not trying to nitpick, in general I agree with your point about memory being selective by nature.

[Patler]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

[SnakeLH2006]

Everybody remembers those 2 very distinct Jones-defining plays.

While I am on the Jones bandwagon, as well, I agree to the 5 play theory...but I remember good plays. That Minn. game was one game (a very bad one) but his clutch catches are mainly what I take from Jones.

I remember the fumbles, but when I think of JJ, I think of great hands and big-time 1st down catches.

IMO Jordy's agility is poor (as his top speed is very good, but it takes to long to get there) as well as his inability to shake a tackle.

JJ is much like DD with good hands, good strength, and ability to make plays.

I'm all aboard dropping DD to 3rd at some point, but until Jordy matures (he's way to raw yet) or Jones toughens up (hurt too much)...there's no need to drop DD down the depth chart.

Really, I don't think it will matter, as DD might be gone after this year. After he reworked his contract in 2007, he's getting paid $5.9 million this year, and $7.2 in 2010. It's doubtful TT brings him back at that 2010 payrate unless DD has another 90 catch year. Now that is doubtful at 34 for DD.

WR's get paid for yards and TD's. DD's yards have dwindled recently and he's NEVER been a TD machine. Thus, I believe it's all moot, as DD prob. won't be back in 2010 at 35 years old, unless he reworks a contract for under $5 million or so....

[sharpe1027]

He played 8 games (technically 9, but his first game back he was on the field for 1 offensive play). In that time he was targeted 34 times, which would be about 70 targets over a normal season, an average of more than 4 per game. Over that span, after Greg and Don he was clearly the #3 WR, and pushing Greg for #2 in amount of use (Greg had 84 targets in 2007). Jones had 80 targets in 2007 as well, but almost 60 of them were prior to Koren's return, after Koren returned, his targets were slashed. Unfortunately too, Jones was averaging more than 14 YPR, Koren was averaging 11 YPR. Greg was averaging more than 17 YPR.

Cause and effect logic? Koren returned...Jones had less oppurtunities...therefore Koren was responsible for his drop in production. Yet, you can almost always use this logic. I mean if a player is used less, another player is almost always going to get more balls. So, did Jones lose oppurtunities because of Koren or did Koren gain oppurtunities because the staff and/or Favre lost trust in JJ? IDK, but the stats simply don't answer that question.

The league is full of players that looked good in limited action. Look at Najeh Davenport, for awhile he got some play as a backkup and had very good YPC. Statistically speaking, one could have projected his stats for the season and put him in the probowl. Problem is, it is not that simple.

So regardless of everything you've said, I still say that JJ has yet to put it all together. In particular, I have reservations about whether he can maintain the stats you are using to compare, assuming he were to become a #1 or #2. For instance, I would guess that a primary target for a particular play will get more difficult-to-catch balls (e.g., they would be thrown to even where the coverage is tight) than a player that is the second or third option. Therefore, it would seem natural that, all things being equal, a third option would catch a higher percentage of passes. Other factors are the quality of the coverage on the third WR is often much less. Most team's nickel DB's are not on par with T. Williams.

Yeah, this is all hypothetical, but my point has always been the jury is out on JJ. He has shown flashes, but we'll have to see if he's got more than that.

[MJZiggy]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

I remember that. It's here somewhere. I think Green's "fumbleitis" was "cured" when they got him new pads or took them off or something and then you didn't hear about it as much.

[Freak Out]

The 5 play theory strikes again.

(People's impressions of most players are based on nothing more really than about 5 plays. It is hard to recall more, almost every attribute that you give to the player from memory can be found in those 5 plays. Those 5 plays can change, new ones added and old ones swept away.)

Bigby gets a lot of stupid penalties because he kicked a football around week 11 of 2007. Never mind looking up how many penalties that Bigby actually has gotten, and what the trend is.

Jones has fumbling issues. He has lost 2 fumbles in has career, both were within 5 minutes of each other, about week 6 of his rookie year, he hasn't lost a fumble since. He is blamed for losing the game, yet a glance at the play by play shows it had virtually no impact on the game, GB got the ball back after the 2nd one with the score still 0-0.

Jones needs more plays like the bomb past Champ and the safety debilitating, helmet losing play against Cincy, to sweep away those fumbles, then he won't have fumbling problems anymore.

The way people recall non statistic based football data is really weird. Instead of remembering minor parts of many plays, people tend to recall fairly vivid details of only a few, and base their evaluations of players almost solely on these few plays.

I have argued the same thing for years regarding Ahman Green's fumbles. Sure, he fumbled more than many backs, but for the number of touches he had, he fumbled no more often that a number of prominent backs who were/are not known as fumblers. The story was that Holmgren traded him because he fumbled too much (3 in 120+ touches in Seattle), so every time he fumbled in GB, the fans and writers would say. "See....he's a fumbler." In reality, he was not an extraordinary fumbler by any means, even if he did fumble more than some who were/are extremely secure with the ball.

I even posted a list one time (here or on JSO) of "touches/fumble" and Green had some very prominent company.

I remember that. It's here somewhere. I think Green's "fumbleitis" was "cured" when they got him new pads or took them off or something and then you didn't hear about it as much.

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

[retailguy]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.

[pbmax]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.

The neoprene vs. standard white pads were the second explanation offered by Sherman regarding how they were going to deal with the fumbles. Sherm felt he sweat too much for neoprene to be effective. I would hate to be the guy measuring that test.

Football Outsiders has 2009 Jennings at a catch rate of 75% and Driver at 57%. Jones not listed, not enough catches to make the list.

2008: GJ 57%, DD 64%, JN 61%, Jones 67%

2007: Jennings 63%, 67%, Jones 59%, RM 57%, KR 62%

2006: DD 53%, GJ 43%, RM 49%, KR 44%, RF 38%

These are all catch rates. The play by play does not count drops. I can't believe Driver had no drops last year, as we dropped passes in every game I can remember. but someone is going to have to comb through McGinn's season ending wrapup to find his numbers for drops.

[Waldo]

He used to wear those black neoprene looking forearm things and when they were wet he would fumble more....allegedly.

I've always thought that it was the fact that he always carried the ball in his left arm. Most RB's switch arms based on where the hit/pressure comes from. I always believed it led to an opportunity to dislodge the ball that didn't happen as often with most other RB's.

The neoprene vs. standard white pads were the second explanation offered by Sherman regarding how they were going to deal with the fumbles. Sherm felt he sweat too much for neoprene to be effective. I would hate to be the guy measuring that test.

Football Outsiders has 2009 Jennings at a catch rate of 75% and Driver at 57%. Jones not listed, not enough catches to make the list.

2008: GJ 57%, DD 64%, JN 61%, Jones 67%

2007: Jennings 63%, 67%, Jones 59%, RM 57%, KR 62%

2006: DD 53%, GJ 43%, RM 49%, KR 44%, RF 38%

These are all catch rates. The play by play does not count drops. I can't believe Driver had no drops last year, as we dropped passes in every game I can remember. but someone is going to have to comb through McGinn's season ending wrapup to find his numbers for drops.

2009 #'s probably aren't a very good guide. Jones and Jordy haven't yet caught any passes.

Anyway, I got McGinn's analysis bookmarked:

Donald Driver dropped seven of 113 (6.2%)

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/36986949.html

LIS though, there is a fundamental problem with the drop stat. It is a judgement call as to what is and isn't catchable, and it fails to take into account that some WR's are better than others at getting their hands to touch the ball, and there is a fairly significant difference. (for example, Chi's WR's, they don't get drops for the times the stopped on a route, but that still affects their catch %).

[HarveyWallbangers]

for anyone questioning DD's hands I have one thing to say:

ZERO: The number of dropped passes by DD in 2008!

64.3 - The % of targeted passes Don caught in 2008.

69.0 - The % of targeted passes Jones caught in 2008.

And if you are want to argue that Jones caught more dumpoffs and Don caught tougher passes, each one averaged 13.7 YPR last year. Each pass on average gained the same number of yards between the two players.

Each CATCH averaged the same gain. We don't know how far down the field each incompletion was. Also, Jones didn't get a lot of balls thrown his way because he wasn't healthy. Small sample size. Going by your stats, you are stating that an injured Jones was better than a healthy Driver last year.


The stats also don't tell you who covered each respective receiver. Driver got his stats going against a team's #1 or #2 corner and with occasional double teams. Jones got his stats mostly going against a team's #3 or #4 corner (nickelback or dimeback) and with little help.

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) is the % of times a receiver didn't get open enough for the QB to target him. You can use stats however you want, but you also have to evaluate the player.

[Waldo]

The other thing that the % of targeted passes caught doesn't show (besides who was covering him and what type of coverage he had) is the % of times a receiver didn't get open enough for the QB to target him. You can use stats however you want, but you also have to evaluate the player.

But you also have to be aware of how unobjective the evaluation of a popular player is by virtually all fans.

Stats can do a good job to help maintain objectivity when evaluating, pointing out characteristics to pay attention to.