Fosco's Team Rankings

[Fosco33]

Alright everyone - we've had enough debate on TT's crazy moves, the Oline's lack of protection and #4.

For the experienced posters - this will look familiar.

I take key stats on offense, defense and rank them 1-32. I then apply a formula based on the individual stat rankings to figure out the top overall statistical teams.

Yeah, yeah - I know. Stats don't mean crap. But results do. I've won spread pools of 45+ guys with $100 buy-ins and am currently at 60% against the spread (also #5 in the pick 'em pool here). Over the last 5 years, I've been able to predict almost 80% of the playoff teams by week 10 using this system.

Here's the overall ranking:



Interesting items:
Colts, Niners and Bengals are overperforming (winning more than they should).

Ravens and Dolphins are underperforming (winning less than they should).

All other teams are within +/- 5 ranks of their actual winning percentage ranking (performing about as expected).

* there's hope yet for the Packers at #6 overall *


Offensive breakdown:



Defensive breakdown



Time of Possession and Turnover Margin



Points Scored and Allowed

[Partial]

I thoroughly enjoyed your power rankings. If I remember correctly they were quite accurate. Good to see more content.

[Guiness]

Indi seem out of place in the rankings Fosco - shouldn't they be first on the offensive chart? Maybe there are more columns you're not showing us.

[Fosco33]

Indi seem out of place in the rankings Fosco - shouldn't they be first on the offensive chart? Maybe there are more columns you're not showing us.

Indy is # 2 in a few offensive categories: (6.7 yards/play; Cowboys are 6.8), (51% on 3rd down success; Dolphins are an impressive 56%).

Per usual, Indy is low on time of possession (they score quick). In year's past, I've adjusted the formula for the teams that work in no huddle.

Indy is 5th in points scored (Ravens, Giants, Vikings and Saints all score more).

What may be confusing is that I kept the same overall ranking (Indy as #7) for all areas (just for ease of copying/pasting charts and finding teams)... ((look at the 'Rank' Columns to see where a team stacks up instead))

[Maxie the Taxi]

Thanks for posting these. They make sense to me.

I was pleased to see Dallas was put in the proper prospective! The Cowboys ain't as good as they think they are.

The Pack ain't as bad as we might have thought either.

[Fritz]

I am highly curious as to how the Pack will play on Sunday. I would dearly like to see improvement on the offensive line and am frankly hoping that Lang will start at LT. That would give Clifton another week to heal and would give Lang some experience - not much, but some.

Man, if that offensive line can start blocking - pass and run blocking - that'd make me feel a whole lot better.

[get louder at lambeau]

Good stuff, Fosco. Thanks for posting that. Do special teams play a role at all in your rankings?

[bobblehead]

You said you are 60% against the spread...how do you choose who you are going to bet? You can't mean you are 60% and you play every game??

[Fosco33]

You said you are 60% against the spread...how do you choose who you are going to bet? You can't mean you are 60% and you play every game??

Yes, we pick every game (Monday night tiebreaker, with points) using the Tuesday lines.

There's no confidence picks - just total # correct over total games against the spread.

I've used my overall summary rankings to compare against the spread, for example:

Packers are 7.5 point favorites on the road vs. the Browns

Packers statistical ranking is 8.7. Browns are a paltry 25.9.
Since the spread is typically adjusted by Vegas for home field (3 points), I compare the total (10.5) vs. the difference in the ranks (25.9-8.7 = 17.2).

Given the difference in the ranking (17) is much larger than the adjusted spread (10), I take the Packers with the spread.

A better use of the tool: Vikes (8.4) vs. Steelers (12.8) with Pitt favored by 4.5 at home (with the HFA of 3 points).

The comparison (8.4-12.8 or -4.4) is different than the spread (+4.5). Therefore you take the Vikes as a small road dog.

I will make adjustments because I know the formula isn't 100% (bad weather, big spread - take the dog; injured dog QB - take the favorite). There are also teams that are playing over/under their potential (see original post) or lines that are wacky (because of crazy fans and greedy Vegas - aka Dallas and Houston).

I won the pool 2 years ago @61%, too (and am currently at 60%). I'm thinking of creating a free site just to post this stuff... then maybe people will use it and want to pay for it in the future.

[Fosco33]

Good stuff, Fosco. Thanks for posting that. Do special teams play a role at all in your rankings?

I've played with many other metrics- penalties; more breakouts (offensive passing/running; defensive passing/running); sacks; etc.

What I found is as the formula gets adjusted, the end result (overall summary ranking) is about the same. Meaning - I'd waste my time trying to get every stat right as a % of the overall ranking and the results wouldn't change. I use the KISS method (keep it simple, stupid).

[Maxie the Taxi]

Good stuff, Fosco. Thanks for posting that. Do special teams play a role at all in your rankings?

I've played with many other metrics- penalties; more breakouts (offensive passing/running; defensive passing/running); sacks; etc.

What I found is as the formula gets adjusted, the end result (overall summary ranking) is about the same. Meaning - I'd waste my time trying to get every stat right as a % of the overall ranking and the results wouldn't change. I use the KISS method (keep it simple, stupid).

Are you familiar with BudGoodeSports.com? (http://mule.he.net/~budsport/index.php)

He claims that Yds/Pass Attempt Differential is the best stat for prediction. His weighted prediction tool is scary accurate.

[Fosco33]

Good stuff, Fosco. Thanks for posting that. Do special teams play a role at all in your rankings?

I've played with many other metrics- penalties; more breakouts (offensive passing/running; defensive passing/running); sacks; etc.

What I found is as the formula gets adjusted, the end result (overall summary ranking) is about the same. Meaning - I'd waste my time trying to get every stat right as a % of the overall ranking and the results wouldn't change. I use the KISS method (keep it simple, stupid).

Are you familiar with BudGoodeSports.com? (http://mule.he.net/~budsport/index.php)

He claims that Yds/Pass Attempt Differential is the best stat for prediction. His weighted prediction tool is scary accurate.

Nope - haven't heard of that site. Thanks!

I could do all sorts of other metrics - and I might. I love Turnover Margin and 3rd downs. If you convert (or prevent) 3rd downs, you get the ball. You get the ball (and keep it) - you get more yards/points/wins. Simple stuff.

I checked out and ran their game predictor - funny that the Pack v Browns at 75% confidence played out exactly as I discussed above... I may be onto something here :P

[bobblehead]

You said you are 60% against the spread...how do you choose who you are going to bet? You can't mean you are 60% and you play every game??

Yes, we pick every game (Monday night tiebreaker, with points) using the Tuesday lines.

There's no confidence picks - just total # correct over total games against the spread.

I've used my overall summary rankings to compare against the spread, for example:

Packers are 7.5 point favorites on the road vs. the Browns

Packers statistical ranking is 8.7. Browns are a paltry 25.9.
Since the spread is typically adjusted by Vegas for home field (3 points), I compare the total (10.5) vs. the difference in the ranks (25.9-8.7 = 17.2).

Given the difference in the ranking (17) is much larger than the adjusted spread (10), I take the Packers with the spread.

A better use of the tool: Vikes (8.4) vs. Steelers (12.8) with Pitt favored by 4.5 at home (with the HFA of 3 points).

The comparison (8.4-12.8 or -4.4) is different than the spread (+4.5). Therefore you take the Vikes as a small road dog.

I will make adjustments because I know the formula isn't 100% (bad weather, big spread - take the dog; injured dog QB - take the favorite). There are also teams that are playing over/under their potential (see original post) or lines that are wacky (because of crazy fans and greedy Vegas - aka Dallas and Houston).

I won the pool 2 years ago @61%, too (and am currently at 60%). I'm thinking of creating a free site just to post this stuff... then maybe people will use it and want to pay for it in the future.

PM me your picks for the week. I'll go lay a small amount on every game each week and progress the bets as the season goes on. If you hold 60% for the season I'll send you a check based on how much I make....You have nothing to lose. If I lose money I'll bad mouth you to no end...but I won't actually be mad since I bet NFL plenty anyway. (and I'll likely start at $30 a game so I won't take too big of a bath if it goes bad.)

I only want this so I have a passing interest on every game and you do it anyway.

[Rastak]

Great stuff indeed Fosco....very well done.

[bobblehead]

You said you are 60% against the spread...how do you choose who you are going to bet? You can't mean you are 60% and you play every game??

Yes, we pick every game (Monday night tiebreaker, with points) using the Tuesday lines.

There's no confidence picks - just total # correct over total games against the spread.

I've used my overall summary rankings to compare against the spread, for example:

Packers are 7.5 point favorites on the road vs. the Browns

Packers statistical ranking is 8.7. Browns are a paltry 25.9.
Since the spread is typically adjusted by Vegas for home field (3 points), I compare the total (10.5) vs. the difference in the ranks (25.9-8.7 = 17.2).

Given the difference in the ranking (17) is much larger than the adjusted spread (10), I take the Packers with the spread.

A better use of the tool: Vikes (8.4) vs. Steelers (12.8) with Pitt favored by 4.5 at home (with the HFA of 3 points).

The comparison (8.4-12.8 or -4.4) is different than the spread (+4.5). Therefore you take the Vikes as a small road dog.

I will make adjustments because I know the formula isn't 100% (bad weather, big spread - take the dog; injured dog QB - take the favorite). There are also teams that are playing over/under their potential (see original post) or lines that are wacky (because of crazy fans and greedy Vegas - aka Dallas and Houston).

I won the pool 2 years ago @61%, too (and am currently at 60%). I'm thinking of creating a free site just to post this stuff... then maybe people will use it and want to pay for it in the future.

OK, you confused me just a bit with your explanation. the line for GB was -7.5, and you added 3 to that?

with minn/pitt the line is pitt -4, but you said the adjusted line is pitt -4.5....shouldn't it be pitt -1.5 since they are home? I got lost somewhere, I think I understand, but something isn't clicking....I'll go check your PM and see if I can figure it out, but a better explanation for other rats might help.

edit: what I'm asking is do YOU alter for home field or is it straight numbers. ie. Eagles (10.4) AT skins (19.1)...fosco's line is eagles -8.7, Vegas line is Eagles -6.5

Would you pick the eagles, or would you then adjust your line same as vegas and take 3 off for the eagles being the road team and your line is eagles -5.7. It changes which way you bet.