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GB Playoff Run: Overachiever/Underachiever Analysis

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  • GB Playoff Run: Overachiever/Underachiever Analysis



    Mike Vandermause column: Green Bay Packers need all cylinders firing in home stretch

    November 28, 2009

    Armed with the No. 2 defense and No. 5 offense in the National Football League, the Green Bay Packers carry an impressive resume into the home stretch of their season.

    But let’s not kid ourselves into believing statistics mean much, considering the Packers have been lucky enough to have the four worst teams in the NFL on their schedule.

    Pummeling the likes of the Detroit Lions (2-9) twice, in addition to the Cleveland Browns (1-9) and St. Louis Rams (1-9), is one surefire way to produce with eye-popping efficiency. Even in a loss to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9), the Packers fattened their numbers.

    Their 7-4 record puts them on solid ground and ahead of the pack of NFC wild-card contenders, but the Packers will need more than gaudy stats to make a deep playoff run.

    It will take significant contributions from several key players if the Packers want to elevate themselves from merely a good team to a bona fide Super Bowl contender that can challenge NFC heavyweights New Orleans and Minnesota. Here is a list of players the Packers need to produce, broken down into three categories:

    OVERACHIEVERS
    (Players that have performed beyond expectations this season)

    ♦ Charles Woodson — Is there any doubt he’s the best Packers cornerback since Herb Adderley? Woodson is on pace to tie the single-season franchise record for interceptions (10), and in less than four years has pulled within one of tying Adderley’s team mark (7) for most career touchdowns on interception returns. Woodson deserves NFL defensive player of the year consideration, and if he keeps this up, the Packers’ hopes will remain high.

    ♦ Aaron Rodgers — He’s on pace to shatter the Packers record for passing yards in a season, and finish with the second-best completion percentage and passer rating of all-time behind Bart Starr. Those are remarkable numbers, and only the large shadow cast by his predecessor, Brett Favre, keeps more fans from appreciating his contributions. But make no mistake, Rodgers’ continued good health and play are a must.

    ♦ Donald Driver — He’s 34 years old but playing like he’s 24. Driver, who is on pace to catch 77 passes for more than 1,200 yards, says he wants to play until he’s 40. At this rate, who can doubt him? And so far this season, who can stop him?

    UNDERACHIEVERS
    (Players that have performed below expectations)

    ♦ Greg Jennings — He’s on pace for 68 catches and 1,050 yards, which isn’t bad. But Jennings is capable of so much more. Part of the problem is that defenses are keying on him, which has benefited Driver. But Jennings is getting paid too much money to serve as a decoy and needs to make more plays.

    ♦ Mason Crosby — The Packers might need him to win a game on a cold December day, but after his 43-yard indoor miss against the Lions on Thanksgiving, coach Mike McCarthy appears to be losing faith. Crosby’s 77 percent field goal accuracy ranks tied for 25th in the NFL and isn’t good enough. Now would be a good time for him to start living up to his potential.

    ♦ Special teamers — The Packers have some of the worst coverage units in the NFL. They rank dead last in net punting average, and only seven teams have allowed more yards per kickoff return than the Packers. This is a major disappointment, considering the heavy emphasis placed on special teams during the offseason.

    ♦ Offensive linemen — After a disastrous first half of the season, this unit has looked better of late. If Mark Tauscher’s knee holds up, and rookie T.J. Lang continues to develop as a capable backup tackle — or starter if necessary — good things might be in store and Rodgers can stop fearing for his life.

    MODEST ACHIEVERS
    (Players who have flashed potential)

    ♦ Jermichael Finley — An injury sidelined him for a month and slowed his progress, but if he breaks loose, the offense could shed its red-zone struggles and become virtually unstoppable.

    ♦ Ryan Grant — He’s on pace to rush for 1,295 yards, which would rank sixth all-time in single-season team history. It would help if he could break a couple long runs and boost his 4.3 average. For as much as Grant has been criticized, a strong finish will justify the contract the Packers gave him last year.

    ♦ B.J. Raji — The ninth overall selection in the draft has been shackled by a nagging ankle injury but seems to be getting healthy. At a time when many rookies hit the wall, Raji must blossom as a run-stuffer and overall stud on the defensive line.
    ______________________________________________

    Snake's Take:

    -#2 Defense and #5 offense? Damn that's crazy. So how are we only 7-4? Oh yeah, we played the 4 worst teams in the NFL so far. But damn those are some stats...
    -I don't believe Arod or Woodson have overachieved. I expected both to have stellar seasons, thus far, and both have been great.
    -Driver has overachieved...at his age, I'd have suspected he'd tail off at this point. He's been better than Jennings so far. Lights out Turkey Day too.
    -I agree with all the underachievers. Jennings has kinda disappeared in games. I really thought he'd be elite this year. There's still time for him to shine, though.
    -As far as Mike's modest achievers...Finley has been hurt, but really good when he's played. I like that guy alot at TE/SE with the matchup problems he presents vs. Donald Lee at TE. He has overachieved, as I don't think anyone expected him to just beast at times (but be overall much improved coming off last season). Grant (most know I'm usually down on Grant) has impressed me the last few weeks. He's done more than I expected by far. BJ was hurt early and really took off the past few weeks (QB pressures, big run stuffs, sacks, etc.) I'm a big BJ fan (look at my sig) but I don't know what to say here, as I think his 1st half was not what I wanted/expected, but suspect he's getting stronger and more confident in the past few games and will be a force by years end. He's really been good the past few games and will be much better by the end of the year, and into 2010 and beyond.
    Snake's Twitter comments would be LEGENDARY.........if I was ugly or gave a shit about Twitter.

  • #2
    I've no doubt that we'd have at least 2 more wins, if our special teams were up to snuff.

    The Tampa Bay game was a ST travesty. They scored 17 points on, what, like 30-odd yards off offense during one stretch of the game?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by PlantPage55
      I've no doubt that we'd have at least 2 more wins, if our special teams were up to snuff.

      The Tampa Bay game was a ST travesty. They scored 17 points on, what, like 30-odd yards off offense during one stretch of the game?
      I'd agree with that, PlantPage, as our ST has been atrochious this year. Crosby has been sub-par, those kick coverage teams are out of sync, and Jordy has really underwhelmed. Jordy has had some deece kick returns, but that fumble last week was weak, and totally looks slow on PR. Now that Tramon starts at CB he can't be the PR (and has burst there) where Jordy has none. His straight-line speed is high, but his agility and short burst are lacking. I'm disappointed in the kick coverage and McFatty continually putting Jordy on PR (I think I saw last week where he averages 3.8 yards a PR...that's terrible).

      All the ST woes you pointed out might explain how we dominate at #2 D and #5 O, yet are only 7-4. Somehow, someway I still blame Mike McFatty.
      Snake's Twitter comments would be LEGENDARY.........if I was ugly or gave a shit about Twitter.

      Comment


      • #4
        Grant is on pace to rank sixth all time in single season team history and that makes him mediocre. What's he gotta do to be considered good, Mike?
        "Greatness is not an act... but a habit.Greatness is not an act... but a habit." -Greg Jennings

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        • #5
          Originally posted by MJZiggy
          Grant is on pace to rank sixth all time in single season team history and that makes him mediocre. What's he gotta do to be considered good, Mike?
          I agree with you, Ziggy.

          I think Vandermause was approaching deadline and needed something to write about.

          Woodson, Driver, Rodgers, Jennings and Grant are solid pros. I suspect Jennings is perceived as underachieving because he draws double-teams and special coverage, freeing up Driver, Jones and Nelson.

          Grant has done everything he's been asked to do. Rodgers, Woodson and Driver are All-Pros, dependable in the clutch.

          Patler's made the case for Mason Crosby in another thread.

          A lot of times "underachieving" is a matter of situations and being in a position to succeed. Most of this comes down to what the opponent is doing and how we counter it. We can't control what the opponent does. We can't control injuries, but we can control strategy, our attitude and our personnel. And that is the responsibility of management and the coaching staff.

          Clearly management and the coaching staff has underachieved in this respect.

          Playing for long, chancy field goals instead of field position is a "controllable."

          Deciding on "trick" or "directional" kickoffs instead of asking Mason to just "boom it," is a controllable.

          Abandoning a successful running game in favor of downfield bombs and exposing Rodgers, is a controllable.

          Mental errors and procedure penalties on the LOS are controllables.

          Attitude and motivation are controllables.
          One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
          John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MJZiggy
            Grant is on pace to rank sixth all time in single season team history and that makes him mediocre. What's he gotta do to be considered good, Mike?

            I'd also consider him a mediocre starting #1 RB. If you are a #1 RB the expectations are higher.

            Where would you rate him in terms of the #1 Backs ?

            My guess is he falls in the 15-22 range for most.
            TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MJZiggy
              Grant is on pace to rank sixth all time in single season team history and that makes him mediocre. What's he gotta do to be considered good, Mike?
              Probably breaking the long runs and having more 100 yard games. If he has any runs over 30 yards, he only has one or two. He has none over 40 yards. The good runners tend to break long runs every couple games. This statistic really impresses me considering Grant hasn't broken long runs. To get on that yardage list without the yards from the long runs? Impressive.
              No longer the member of any fan clubs. I'm tired of jinxing players out of the league and into obscurity.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Smidgeon
                Originally posted by MJZiggy
                Grant is on pace to rank sixth all time in single season team history and that makes him mediocre. What's he gotta do to be considered good, Mike?
                Probably breaking the long runs and having more 100 yard games. If he has any runs over 30 yards, he only has one or two. He has none over 40 yards. The good runners tend to break long runs every couple games. This statistic really impresses me considering Grant hasn't broken long runs. To get on that yardage list without the yards from the long runs? Impressive.
                His YPC are not that great. I like Grant. He's alright. But he must be getting a pretty good quanity of carries w/o the big runs.
                TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

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                • #9
                  How do you mention Raji without Matthews?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mission
                    How do you mention Raji without Matthews?
                    Exactly...and I waited til I read the thread before posting finally. How can you not put mathews in the top class...he has been absolutely beastly for us.
                    The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary -- Vince Lombardi

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                    • #11
                      Wonder what round Toby will go in the draft? I watch the game last night. Talk about a RB playing with heart. I would love to have him on the Packers. John Harbaugh loves this guy and I can see why.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by pack4to84
                        Wonder what round Toby will go in the draft? I watch the game last night. Talk about a RB playing with heart. I would love to have him on the Packers. John Harbaugh loves this guy and I can see why.
                        Somewhere in the middle ?? He won't do much... reminds me of another Stanford back: Touchdown Tommy Vardell.

                        Who's the last white running back over 1000 yards? Riggins?

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                        • #13
                          Who is Toby??

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Pugger
                            Who is Toby??
                            Toby Gerhart from Stanford
                            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh6Zz3F8Qyo highlights from last night game. Make sure to see the run at the 3:17 mark

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                            • #15
                              Much of the playoff run depends on Tramon Williams and Jarrett Bush.

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