Pro Bowl Predictions

[Smidgeon]

Pro Bowl voting results and rosters are released today. Of the Packers team, who do you think is on the roster and who isn't because of overzealous Viking fans stuffing the ballot box but deserves to be?

My predictions:

Aaron Rodgers
Charles Woodson
Nick Collins

Deserves to be but won't make it:

Ryan Grant
Johnny Jolly
Clay Matthews

[vince]

I agree with that Smidgeon, except that I'm not sure Grant deserves to be in necessarily.

Barnett and Sitton have also had very good years, but I doubt they'll get much love, along with Jolly...

[HarveyWallbangers]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

Pro Bowl voting results and rosters are released today. Of the Packers team, who do you think is on the roster and who isn't because of overzealous Viking fans stuffing the ballot box but deserves to be?

My predictions:

Aaron Rodgers
Charles Woodson
Nick Collins

Deserves to be but won't make it:

Ryan Grant
Johnny Jolly
Clay Matthews

I tend to agree--although I think Jenkins has been our best DL. Barnett has also played very well this year also.

[mraynrand]

If Finley hadn't missed games, he'd be in there instead of Shank-o or Witten.

[Smidgeon]

I agree with that Smidgeon, except that I'm not sure Grant deserves to be in necessarily.

Barnett and Sitton have also had very good years, but I doubt they'll get much love, along with Jolly...

Ryan Grant is 3rd in the NFC in rushing yards, trailing AP and Steven Jackson, 2nd in the NFC (for RBs) in TDs trailing AP, and leads the NFC in attempts per fumble at 271 without a fumble. The next best is Cadillac Williams at 191 without a fumble.

EDIT: And I agree that Finley would be a "should get in" if he'd played the entire year. As it is, there are too many with year long stats better than his.

[Smidgeon]

If Finley hadn't missed games, he'd be in there instead of Shank-o or Witten.

Although he hasn't scored many TDs (okay, only 1), Witten far and away leads the NFC TE pack in total yards.

[mngolf19]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

Pro Bowl voting results and rosters are released today. Of the Packers team, who do you think is on the roster and who isn't because of overzealous Viking fans stuffing the ballot box but deserves to be?

My predictions:

Aaron Rodgers
Charles Woodson
Nick Collins

Deserves to be but won't make it:

Ryan Grant
Johnny Jolly
Clay Matthews

I agree with your selections but you do know that fan vote is only 1/3 of the selection criteria. So fans have limited affect.

[vince]

I agree with that Smidgeon, except that I'm not sure Grant deserves to be in necessarily.

Barnett and Sitton have also had very good years, but I doubt they'll get much love, along with Jolly...

Ryan Grant is 3rd in the NFC in rushing yards, trailing AP and Steven Jackson, 2nd in the NFC (for RBs) in TDs trailing AP, and leads the NFC in attempts per fumble at 271 without a fumble. The next best is Cadillac Williams at 191 without a fumble.

EDIT: And I agree that Finley would be a "should get in" if he'd played the entire year. As it is, there are too many with year long stats better than his.

He's come on the second half, and I wouldn't put up a strenuous argument against him, but he's still only 12th in the NFC (among rushers with more than 100 carries) in yds./carry, which is a better barometer of productivity and effectiveness. I like Grant and think he fits our running scheme very well. Deangelo Williams and Michael Turner might get some love before Grant, just because they are more of a focal point of their respective offenses.

That's all I got.

[Smidgeon]

I agree with that Smidgeon, except that I'm not sure Grant deserves to be in necessarily.

Barnett and Sitton have also had very good years, but I doubt they'll get much love, along with Jolly...

Ryan Grant is 3rd in the NFC in rushing yards, trailing AP and Steven Jackson, 2nd in the NFC (for RBs) in TDs trailing AP, and leads the NFC in attempts per fumble at 271 without a fumble. The next best is Cadillac Williams at 191 without a fumble.

EDIT: And I agree that Finley would be a "should get in" if he'd played the entire year. As it is, there are too many with year long stats better than his.

He's come on the second half, and I wouldn't put up a strenuous argument against him, but he's still only 12th in the NFC (among rushers with more than 100 carries) in yds./carry, which is a better barometer of productivity and effectiveness. I like Grant and think he fits our running scheme very well. Deangelo Williams and Michael Turner might get some love before Grant, just because they are more of a focal point of their respective offenses.

That's all I got.

I get you. That's why I put him in the "Deserves but won't get it" category.

[Smidgeon]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

Pro Bowl voting results and rosters are released today. Of the Packers team, who do you think is on the roster and who isn't because of overzealous Viking fans stuffing the ballot box but deserves to be?

My predictions:

Aaron Rodgers
Charles Woodson
Nick Collins

Deserves to be but won't make it:

Ryan Grant
Johnny Jolly
Clay Matthews

I agree with your selections but you do know that fan vote is only 1/3 of the selection criteria. So fans have limited affect.

Fan vote is only a third, but that third can be huge. If one player has even a mediocre lead over another, that lead can be completely negated by the fan vote. A player can actually have 73% (math below) of the coach and player vote and still lose his spot in the probowl if the fan third votes for the next guy. Of course that's an extreme example, but it's used to mathematically demonstrate that the fan vote can't be ignored as "limited".

How do fans, most of which who are uneducated about the intricacies of the game (myself included), be given the same weight as regulated voting among coaches and players?

And if fan voting was so limited, how did the Cowboys get 10 in the pro bowl the year they were one and done in the playoffs and the Pack went to the NFC championship with two (I think--might've been 3) pro bowlers?

x = fan vote portion = .33
y = necessary portion to get into probowl (majority rule) = .51
z = combined coach/player votes = .67
? = minimum overall weight necessary for majority if x = maximum
* = portion of coach/player votes possible going to a losing candidate
# = % of votes a player can receive from coaches and players and still lose the overall vote because of fans' overzealousness

  x + ? =   y
.33 + ? = .51
      ? = .51 - .33
      ? = .18

      * =   z -   ?
      * = .67 - .18
      * = .49

      # =   * /   z
      # = .49 / .67
      # = .731

       73%

[mngolf19]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

And if fan voting was so limited, how did the Cowboys get 10 in the pro bowl the year they were one and done in the playoffs and the Pack went to the NFC championship with two (I think--might've been 3) pro bowlers?

Because players and coaches vote on things like popularity, earned it over their career, etc. And because the games still have to be played despite what it says on paper.

[Smidgeon]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

And if fan voting was so limited, how did the Cowboys get 10 in the pro bowl the year they were one and done in the playoffs and the Pack went to the NFC championship with two (I think--might've been 3) pro bowlers?

Because players and coaches vote on things like popularity, earned it over their career, etc. And because the games still have to be played despite what it says on paper.

Sorry. The Cowboys had 13 that year, not 10. And no, 13 probowlers one and done isn't "strong on paper". That's after almost a year of playing. Thirteen probowlers (an NFL record for as long as there has been a probowl) means that should be the best team of all time since it was accomplished during the time the NFL had the most teams and thus should be harder for a team to dominate the probowl.

As for your other point, I read an article recently detailing how players and coaches vote. I've just spent some time looking for the article and can't find it, but the process isn't like what fans go through. The players don't just have an empty ballot to fill. They're limited more to the players in their own conference or the teams they've played (don't remember which or if it was one of those, but it was something like that), so they vote for players they're familiar with. I'm also pretty sure the offense votes for defensive players and the defense votes for offensive players. The coaching and player portion is designed to eliminate as much "popular" voting amongst them as possible and let the true "best" rise to the top. You can't eliminate the popularity portion of it completely, but the NFL has those two portions designed to mitigate it as much as possible. The fan portion screws it all up.

[Smidgeon]

Just read an article posted last December (below) that say each organization does pro bowl voting differently. So maybe what I read was only how the Packers do it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ross_tucker/12/17/tucks-takes/index.html

[mngolf19]

Re: Pro Bowl Predictions

And if fan voting was so limited, how did the Cowboys get 10 in the pro bowl the year they were one and done in the playoffs and the Pack went to the NFC championship with two (I think--might've been 3) pro bowlers?

Because players and coaches vote on things like popularity, earned it over their career, etc. And because the games still have to be played despite what it says on paper.

Sorry. The Cowboys had 13 that year, not 10. And no, 13 probowlers one and done isn't "strong on paper". That's after almost a year of playing. Thirteen probowlers (an NFL record for as long as there has been a probowl) means that should be the best team of all time since it was accomplished during the time the NFL had the most teams and thus should be harder for a team to dominate the probowl.

As for your other point, I read an article recently detailing how players and coaches vote. I've just spent some time looking for the article and can't find it, but the process isn't like what fans go through. The players don't just have an empty ballot to fill. They're limited more to the players in their own conference or the teams they've played (don't remember which or if it was one of those, but it was something like that), so they vote for players they're familiar with. I'm also pretty sure the offense votes for defensive players and the defense votes for offensive players. The coaching and player portion is designed to eliminate as much "popular" voting amongst them as possible and let the true "best" rise to the top. You can't eliminate the popularity portion of it completely, but the NFL has those two portions designed to mitigate it as much as possible. The fan portion screws it all up.

But I keep hearing, and somehwat agree, that the Pack have the most fans around. So why wouldn't that have worked out over the years? Certainly more than the Vikes.

[Smidgeon]

Another story from last December:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/the-politics-of-the-pro-bowl-vote.html&startrow=36