Clutch Quarterback Play

[vince]

Here's a meaty article from Football Outsiders that cuts through the misleading 4th quarter comeback trackers and provides a comprehensive analysis for measuring a quarterback’s performance in potential game-winning or game-tying situations.

While the hacks at the JS have loved to rip on Rodgers for not finishing games, this deeper analysis turns that misnomer on its head. It turns out that he's actually been very good in the clutch over the last 2 years. He's 5th best among all QB's with at least 30 qualifying drives since 1998 according to this analysis, and his clutch QB rating is #1 among all quarterbacks the last 12 years.

Adjusted Comeback Efficiency Article

[Bossman641]

It's like this sentence was specifically written for Rodgers' 08 season.

If the quarterback leads his team on a drive to take the lead with one minute left, and then his defense subsequently surrenders a touchdown, shouldn’t he still get credit for that drive?

Good find and it backs up what many of us already know. Only those looking at the numbers on the surface think Rodgers can't get it done in clutch time.

[channtheman]

Even more surprising (well not really) is Favre's lack of success at being a clutch QB. In a time where he is often used as a prime example of a clutch QB and Rodgers is looked upon as not clutch it really is interesting to see that it is actually the opposite.

[Fritz]

Facts and analysis, facts and analysis. Sheesh. I'm so, so tired of this shit.

Can't we get back to the senseless, repetetive bashing?

[Joemailman]

Facts and analysis, facts and analysis. Sheesh. I'm so, so tired of this shit.

Can't we get back to the senseless, repetetive bashing?

Shut up, moron.

[sharpe1027]

Facts and analysis, facts and analysis. Sheesh. I'm so, so tired of this shit.

Can't we get back to the senseless, repetetive bashing?

Shut up, moron.

Shut up, moron. (Now it is repetitive.)

[cheesner]

Facts and analysis, facts and analysis. Sheesh. I'm so, so tired of this shit.

Can't we get back to the senseless, repetetive bashing?

Shut up, moron.

Shut up, moron. (Now it is repetitive.)

[Fritz]

Since I threw the thread off track I'll try to get it back on.

Weirdest name near the top of the list for me: Trent Green.

[Pugger]

Facts and analysis, facts and analysis. Sheesh. I'm so, so tired of this shit.

Can't we get back to the senseless, repetetive bashing?

[get louder at lambeau]

Since I threw the thread off track I'll try to get it back on.

Weirdest name near the top of the list for me: Trent Green.

Other surprising guys who outrank our former QB at clutchiness-
Plummer
Delhomme
Culpepper
Brooks
Testaverde
Flutie
Batch
Garrard
Frerrotte
Fiedler
Chandler
Collins
Bledsoe
Vick
Banks
Leftwich
Brunell

At least Faver outperformed Tim Couch, even if it was only by .01 on their scale.

[arcilite]

Can't take anything seriously that has Eli Manning #1

[jmbarnes101]

Can't take anything seriously that has Eli Manning #1

The problem with that logic is that it's the only area of the game that he's really good at. He is the epitome of a clutch QB. As much as the rest of his game sucks if his team can keep it close they have a very good chance to win at the end. That Super Bowl march was about 8-10 weeks of doing exactly this; not only staying in the playoff hunt but than winning as a wildcard team and even in the game against the Patriots. Obviously, other people had to step up as well but he put them in the position to succeed on those drives.

Otherwise, Eli isn't very good.

[Fritz]

That list did make me wonder if a guy who otherwise is pretty mediocre can somehow excel at clutch time. If so, you wonder what that "it" is that that guy would have at those times and not at others.

[get louder at lambeau]

That list did make me wonder if a guy who otherwise is pretty mediocre can somehow excel at clutch time. If so, you wonder what that "it" is that that guy would have at those times and not at others.

I figure it's just that some people get all panicky under pressure, others get focused.

[vince]

Re: Clutch Quarterback Play

Can't take anything seriously that has Eli Manning #1

If you would have shown either the method or the data used to be invalid in some respect, you may have some ground for this statement, but you didn't. "Understanding" without foundation, or based on incomplete or pre-selected data and/or an invalid method of analysis is the reason for the advent of the scientific method in the first place. It very often leads to wrong conclusions.

While the hacks at the JS have loved to rip on Rodgers for not finishing games, this deeper analysis turns that misnomer on its head. It turns out that he's actually been very good in the clutch over the last 2 years. He's 5th best among all QB's with at least 30 qualifying drives since 1998 according to this analysis, and his clutch QB rating is #1 among all quarterbacks the last 12 years.

I'd like to re-evaluate (thanks Fritz) my statement above about the clutch QB rating. The QB rating listed in the study is the overall QB rating. My bad on that.

As you'd expect, most of the QB's that perform well overall also perform well in the clutch and vice-versa, but Eli Manning and Brett Favre are a couple notable exceptions.

Without having data, I would say that Favre's clutch rating would be far higher for the beginning of his career - up until about '98 - when the data in this study begins. Favre's status on and off the field vaulted into the stratosphere at that time, and that could have impacted his focus on the task at hand in game-defining situations over the second two-thirds of his career. Success may well have gotten into his head.

It's not surprising that clutch QB play is important in the playoffs, but it's interesting to see just how vitally important it is - both for QB's and defenses - to playoff success. The last four Super Bowls have been won by the QB's with the top 3 ratings. Peyton Manning could make it five in a row this year, but even if the Saints win, Drew Brees is also a highly rated clutch QB. The author also mentions that both the Colts and Saints have been very strong in clutch situations on both sides of the ball.