The Argument For Passing More

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The Colts O line is very average. Manning is responsible for a lot of sack avoidance. The point of the article is that there is still more value to be gained by extra passing than there is with the current balance. That is not the same as saying that passing alone will win.

As far as post-season records, many teams fare poorly in the post-season compared to their regular season record. That is because the quality of competition goes up, not because the running game is magical. There is one exception; running the ball, play to play, is less likely to lead to a lost fumble. And turnovers can make the difference when teams are close. However, if that was all there was, then the Jets would have won it all.

The run is an important statistical indicator of success (as opposed to good game strategy) in two ways; early in the game, if you are gaining good yardage (almost regardless of attempts), that is an indication you will succeed. The other, better indicator, is the number of attempts you have late in the game. Because that is what teams do when they have the lead.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause

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It's funny how now people look back at Holmgren as a coach who conceived and supported a good running game. At the time, many people - myself included - were apoplectic about his insistence on constantly passing the ball...I remember a few television announcers telling us that Holmgren considered the five yard pass a running play.

Holmgren's teams were far closer to a pass-run balance than McCarthy's are...especially in the postseason when it matters.

At first glance yes...

McCarthy Runs Passes

2009(1) 20 47
2007(2) 49 59
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Total 69 106
Pass Ratio= 60%
Playoff Record: 1-2


Holmgren

1998 28 36
1997 84 103
1996 120 78
1995 69 108
1994 58 86
1993 38 73
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Total 397 484

Pass Ratio= 54% Pass
Playoff Record: 9-5

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But even if running indicated winning (correlation), it is not causation (must run to win).

McCarthy Playoff Wins

SEA(07) 35 24
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Pass Ratio= 40%


McCarthy Playoff Losses

GNT(07) 14 35
ARZ(09) 20 47
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Total 34 82
Pass Ratio= 70%


Holmgren Playoff Losses

DAL(93) 13 47
DAL(94) 23 47
DAL(95) 12 43
DEN(97) 20 43
SFO(98) 28 36
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Total 96 216
Pass Ratio= 69%

Holmgren Playoff Wins

Total 301 268
Pass Ratio= 47%


Now there are two ways you can interpret this data. Coaches are dumb and ill-prepared and tilt to the passing game on mere whimsy, ego or panic.

Or teams pass when they are behind and they run when they are winning.

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From Football Outsiders, here is the technical explanation of some of that second set of playoff win/loss numbers:

So far, evidence would seem to suggest that establishing the run isn't really that important for winning games in today's NFL. The evidence also seems to back those who say that winning teams build their rushing totals while running out their leads. But in the interest of space, I've given a lot of top five and bottom five lists. What about the other 22 teams?
As it turns out, looking at all 32 teams together reinforces what we've seen so far: that more rushing attempts early don't indicate a winning team, but rushing attempts late do.

Statisticians have a concept called the correlation coefficient that measures how much one variable influences another variable. A correlation of 1 means the two variables are completely connected; 0 means they have no connection.

The correlation between first quarter rushing attempts and team wins is a measly .171. That means there is almost no connection between running a lot in the first quarter, and winning a lot of games. The correlation between fourth quarter rushing attempts and team wins, on the other hand, is .750. That's a sizeable relationship.

By the way, the correlation for first quarter rushing yards and team wins is a bit higher, though still not substantial, at .260. The correlation for fourth quarter rushing yards and team wins is a much lower, at .486. So early in games, it is more important to gain yards than just to run the ball for the heck of it, but at the end of the game the number of runs is more important than how many yards they gain.

From: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...ishment-clause