Understanding the Neal Pick

[pbmax]

Just one small thing. Carrington was noted for his run stopping, holding the point of attack and for the potential to bull rush and collapse the pocket. Its my experience that the last point is scout speak for "cannot rush the passer in the NFL, but we don't have definitive proof of his lack of ability".

It has been noted in several profiles that there is an expectation that Neal can rush the passer with more moves than simply collapsing the pocket. That fact alone, with two otherwise close players, is going to elevate Neal and make him more attractive to the Packers, who needed to increase their pass rush ability. If Neal was the last well regarded interior pass rusher (other than later round potentials) that would explain the 2nd round draft and the reluctance to trade down. As someone pointed out, you don't trade down if there is only one guy left with the qualities and measurables you seek.

It would also explain jumping up in the 3rd for the last Day 2 (formerly Day 1) quality safety. With the early Round 2 run on OLB, the pass rushers were in short supply at OLB. That meant to get NFL ready pass rushing in this draft, there could not have been consideration of safeties or CBs in the 2nd. The Packers then watch as DB help leaves the board too quickly for their liking.

This does not mean T2 jumped completely off the best player bandwagon. But if Neal was the only choice left from the board (grades) and position/skill (D line pass rush) then the draft played out poorly for the Packers in Round 2 and 3.

[rbaloha1]

Why all the second guessing? Lets wait until the pre season.

[swede]

Why all the second guessing? Lets wait until the pre season.

What second guessing?

On this board second guessing is the immediate "He picked WHO? WTF?"

By now we've moved on to suppositions, hypotheticals, comparatives, data analysis and name-calling. I'd say we are easily into fifth and sixth guessing.

[swede]

Just one small thing. Carrington was noted for his run stopping, holding the point of attack and for the potential to bull rush and collapse the pocket. Its my experience that the last point is scout speak for "cannot rush the passer in the NFL, but we don't have definitive proof of his lack of ability".

It has been noted in several profiles that there is an expectation that Neal can rush the passer with more moves than simply collapsing the pocket. That fact alone, with two otherwise close players, is going to elevate Neal and make him more attractive to the Packers, who needed to increase their pass rush ability. If Neal was the last well regarded interior pass rusher (other than later round potentials) that would explain the 2nd round draft and the reluctance to trade down. As someone pointed out, you don't trade down if there is only one guy left with the qualities and measurables you seek.

It would also explain jumping up in the 3rd for the last Day 2 (formerly Day 1) quality safety. With the early Round 2 run on OLB, the pass rushers were in short supply at OLB. That meant to get NFL ready pass rushing in this draft, there could not have been consideration of safeties or CBs in the 2nd. The Packers then watch as DB help leaves the board too quickly for their liking.

This does not mean T2 jumped completely off the best player bandwagon. But if Neal was the only choice left from the board (grades) and position/skill (D line pass rush) then the draft played out poorly for the Packers in Round 2 and 3.

Good post. I think that you are absolutely right about rounds 2-3. If the draft is falling to you badly then you gotta shake things up with a trade or two.

And, if Burnett turns out to be a really good pick then trading up was a great way to trade a couple of Zeppos for a Harpo.

The bolded part reminded me of McCarthy's smoke-blowing during a couple of post-draft interviews. He wanted to assure the fans that every player picked was the highest rated player on the Packers' draft board at the time of selection.

Gosh, Mike...really?

[Gunakor]

Sorry, I guess I really can't argue this one with anybody that can't get past TT's draft board and Mike Neal. I'm not Thompson, and I don't agree with him. I'm not speaking from his perspective. I think he fucked this one up.

Maybe Neal will end up being the better player, but even if he does, that doesn't change my opinion that a serviceable defensive lineman not named Mike Neal plus an additional later round draft pick would have been more valuable than Neal by himself. It's really that extra draft pick that I've been arguing for, not Carrington. I'd have been perfectly okay with Carrington should Neal have been taken as long as I got that extra pick. Beyond that I could care less between the two. They're the same player IMO.

[th87]

TT clearly thinks Neal is better than Carrington + 7th.

By equating Carrington to Neal, you are asserting that you know more than TT about these particular players.

[Gunakor]

TT clearly thinks Neal is better than Carrington + 7th.

By equating Carrington to Neal, you are asserting that you know more than TT about these particular players.

I know what I see. I'm not asserting I know more than Thompson, I'm stating that I disagree with him on what the real value of that pick was.

Thompson obviously knows more than I. That doesn't mean I am just going to put my blind faith in him. It doesn't mean he still isn't capable of making a mistake. It doesn't make me wrong or him right, it's doesn't make me an idiot or him a genious. It simply means his board said one thing and mine said another. From my perspective, he could have gotten more with that pick.

But thanks for acknowledging my point at least, one that everybody else can't understand. You are the first one to add the extra pick I've been stressing as the real value into your argument. Everybody else is simply stuck on Neal vs. Carrington with no thought whatsoever given to the extra pick we'd get. At least you get where I'm coming from.

[Bretsky]

I'm not sure why a 7th got thrown into this equation. Look at the trades around round two; in all probability we'd have been picking up a 4th for a trade down. There were no fire sale on draft picks. A 4th allows us to get a nice OLB with pass rush skills or a decent QB....Several went top of round five.

I also don't buy the you know more than TT mojo; if we don't question moves around here the analysis part goes out the window.

We just have to agree with everything TT does because he's the GM. TT makes plenty of wrong calls and plenty of right calls. Just because we don't agree doesn't makes us smarter than TT.........although.........deep down.........

I know I might be

[Tarlam!]

But thanks for acknowledging my point at least, one that everybody else can't understand. You are the first one to add the extra pick I've been stressing as the real value into your argument. Everybody else is simply stuck on Neal vs. Carrington with no thought whatsoever given to the extra pick we'd get. At least you get where I'm coming from.

Poor, misunderstood, Gunny.

Of course we got your message, including your trade and differing board etc. But what is being argued is that Neal probably wouldn't have been there had TT traded down and the extra pick plus Carrington is probably not going to be better than Neal.

At the end of it all, we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?

[pbmax]

Why all the second guessing? Lets wait until the pre season.

How much playoff hockey or basketball do you think I can watch? I have time to kill.

[Joemailman]

Sorry, I guess I really can't argue this one with anybody that can't get past TT's draft board and Mike Neal. I'm not Thompson, and I don't agree with him. I'm not speaking from his perspective. I think he fucked this one up.

Maybe Neal will end up being the better player, but even if he does, that doesn't change my opinion that a serviceable defensive lineman not named Mike Neal plus an additional later round draft pick would have been more valuable than Neal by himself. It's really that extra draft pick that I've been arguing for, not Carrington. I'd have been perfectly okay with Carrington should Neal have been taken as long as I got that extra pick. Beyond that I could care less between the two. They're the same player IMO.

Carrington is seen by many as a boom or bust pick. A better athlete than football player. Your argument that Carrington + 4th round pick is better than Neal makes sense if you feel that Neal and Carrington are comparable players. However, I suspect that TT had Carrington downgraded because of his lack of production at times, and may not have had much interest in him at all.

http://warroom.sportingnews.com/nfl/draft/2010/players/9646.html

[rbaloha1]

Why all the second guessing? Lets wait until the pre season.

How much playoff hockey or basketball do you think I can watch? I have time to kill.

Makes sense.

[CaptainKickass]

I had a vision the other day while taking peyote and meditating in the forest while wearing my trusty Packer T-shirt.

In this vision I saw TT & Dom in the draft war room. TT turns around to pass a rolled and lit "cigarette" to Dom and looks him in the eye.

He said "Ok, Dom - I lost that bet with you last year, so as promised I told you I'd let you tell me what to do here. It's time to go defense, how should I handle this?"

"kneel" said Dom.

....and the rest is history!

[swede]

I had a vision the other day while taking peyote and meditating in the forest while wearing my trusty Packer T-shirt.

In this vision I saw TT & Dom in the draft war room. TT turns around to pass a rolled and lit "cigarette" to Dom and looks him in the eye.

He said "Ok, Dom - I lost that bet with you last year, so as promised I told you I'd let you tell me what to do here. It's time to go defense, how should I handle this?"

"kneel" said Dom.

....and the rest is history!

Shaman you!

[Lurker64]

Bob McGinn weighed in on the JSO

• It's nonsense to think the Packers could have gotten end Mike Neal later than the second round. How can you know what 31 other teams think about a guy?

If you have a guy rated at that spot, the odds are at least one other team does as well. That's why you just go with your board. You can't be concerned about what other teams do. That's why the Packers are good at what they do.