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A little blip that Peter King wrote (referencing a Football Outsider statistic) got me thinking. He said that Nick Collins had dropped eight interceptions over the last two years and that no other defender had dropped more than six.
This intrigued me. After all, Collins has been in the Top 5 in interceptions made in the last two years already (tied for fifth in 2009 and tied for second in 2008). So if nobody in the league dropped an interception, would Collins have the most interceptions in the league over the last two years?
First, there were a couple things to consider: making an interception isn't a judgment call as far as statistics go. It isn't like tackles or missed tackles. Every site should have the same accurate number of interceptions for each player. Dropping an interception, however, is a judgment call. In this case, I had to trust that the people making the comparison (Football Outsiders) were consistent.
Now for the analysis. I first took the data for the top 50 players with completed interceptions from 2008 and 2009 and added them together before re-ranking them.
Things of note after the re-ranking: Woodson leads the league with 16 over the last two years and Collins is tied for second with Asante Samuel with 13. However, Collins is already the top safety by four interceptions.
So I then added eight dropped interceptions to Collins' log and six to everyone else's. Now, it is unrealistic that everyone else dropped six or even that the other players at the top missed that many since they all have a reputation for hanging onto interceptions (Woodson, Samuel, Revis, Goodman, Finnegan, Rodgers-Cromartie), but for the purpose of statistically assessing this, I must assume that everyone else did (since King didn't say who had six).
So in terms of interceptions and possible interceptions, the following are my findings:
Nick collins would have had 21 interceptions in two years if he had caught the eight he dropped. Assuming Woodson had dropped six (unlikely, but statistically necessary) and caught them, he would have ended with 22. The number 1 and number 2 players statistically in the league in terms of getting their hands on the ball for a possible interception (and the only ones over 20). Samuel came in third and Revis fourth before a logjam at fifth.
It can go without saying that these two players are good at getting their hands on the ball. But there is no one in the league better than these two in terms of putting themselves in the position to have the opportunity to catch a ball. Woodson does it with his wiles and Collins with his deceptive speed.
Two reasons why I'm not too concerned about the pass defense for 2010.
This intrigued me. After all, Collins has been in the Top 5 in interceptions made in the last two years already (tied for fifth in 2009 and tied for second in 2008). So if nobody in the league dropped an interception, would Collins have the most interceptions in the league over the last two years?
First, there were a couple things to consider: making an interception isn't a judgment call as far as statistics go. It isn't like tackles or missed tackles. Every site should have the same accurate number of interceptions for each player. Dropping an interception, however, is a judgment call. In this case, I had to trust that the people making the comparison (Football Outsiders) were consistent.
Now for the analysis. I first took the data for the top 50 players with completed interceptions from 2008 and 2009 and added them together before re-ranking them.
Things of note after the re-ranking: Woodson leads the league with 16 over the last two years and Collins is tied for second with Asante Samuel with 13. However, Collins is already the top safety by four interceptions.
So I then added eight dropped interceptions to Collins' log and six to everyone else's. Now, it is unrealistic that everyone else dropped six or even that the other players at the top missed that many since they all have a reputation for hanging onto interceptions (Woodson, Samuel, Revis, Goodman, Finnegan, Rodgers-Cromartie), but for the purpose of statistically assessing this, I must assume that everyone else did (since King didn't say who had six).
So in terms of interceptions and possible interceptions, the following are my findings:
Nick collins would have had 21 interceptions in two years if he had caught the eight he dropped. Assuming Woodson had dropped six (unlikely, but statistically necessary) and caught them, he would have ended with 22. The number 1 and number 2 players statistically in the league in terms of getting their hands on the ball for a possible interception (and the only ones over 20). Samuel came in third and Revis fourth before a logjam at fifth.
It can go without saying that these two players are good at getting their hands on the ball. But there is no one in the league better than these two in terms of putting themselves in the position to have the opportunity to catch a ball. Woodson does it with his wiles and Collins with his deceptive speed.
Two reasons why I'm not too concerned about the pass defense for 2010.
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