2011 - Roster

[Lurker64]

The thing to keep in mind with Kickers is you only boot your guy if you think you can get somebody better. The kickers in the draft don't seem to be an upgrade over Crosby (Forbath from UCLA is probably the consensus #1, and he's not even as special in college as Crosby was) and I don't anticipate a lot of free agent movement in the kicking department.

We might bring a second kicker into camp, if the roster limits are increased from 80 in the CBA negotations (they were allowed to drop down to 80 after the NFLE exemption expired, because the League wanted "bigger rosters" to be a concession that they didn't mind giving up in negotiations).

[RashanGary]

Colledge has finally been consistent. Bulaga is good. Wells is good. Sitton is excellent.

We'll be in search of a starter. With that in mind, I can see your concern. We'll be looking for one starter and it's going to be hard to keep Spitz around as a backup. Someone will pay him to start.


If Lang happens to step up and take over as starting RG and we draft some depth, we'll be in solid shape, but that requires Lang actually stepping up (something far from proven) and us drafting quality depth (no guarantee). It could be a weak spot.

I don't expect disaster, but injury could make it that pretty quick I guess.

[steve823]

Patler, I hope you're wrong. Jenkins a a great 3-4 end. He stout against the run and rushes the passer So I'm hoping TT throws a big front-loaded contract at him.

[Patler]

I want the following:

1. Kicker
2. CB
3. LT or RT
4. Returner
5. ST coach
6. OLB pass rusher

Kicker is #1 on your list. Why, because he "doinked" a 54 yard attempt and the Packers lost?

You know the stats better than I, Understatement of the year, but isnt Crosby a lifetime sub 80% kicker and 1-11 or something like that in game winners?

Yes, Crosby is a sub-80% kicker, but I will pound this drum again. - He attempts more long kicks than most other kickers. In his career he has 127 attempts, and 55 of them have been from 40 yards and farther. 21 of them have been from 50+.

In 3 1/2 years, MM has run him out there 21 times for kicks 50 yards and longer. (In 5 1/2 years Robbie Gould has just 7 attempts from 50+, In 13 1/2 years, Longwell has tried 36, 14 since joining the Vikings and being in the Dome.) Crosby has made 10 of the 21, but his attempts include a bunch from 55+ and one from 65, or whatever it was. When one of every 6 attempts is from 50+ and darn near half are from 40+, his success rate will be lower than those who rarely attempted from 45+, and there are quite a few of those (see Robby Gould, for example).

Longwell has 36 at 50+ in 396 total attempts. One of every 11 attempts.
Crosby has 21 at 50+ in 127 total attempts. One of every 6 attempts.

By using Crosby the way he has, MM has made him look worse than he really is.

I think Crosby could be more "clutch", but that often comes with age and experience. I would be surprised if he has had 11 game winning opportunities, but maybe he has. I will admit he has missed a few. Funny thing is, his very first game as a pro he tied and won with late game kicks. The 56 yarder that hit the upright earlier this year has to have been frustrating for him, especially since he had so much distance on it. It hit 1/2 to 2/3 of the way up the upright. Looked like it was headed to be right down the middle until late in the kick when it took a sharp hook.

I hope Masthay is the answer as a punter, so Crosby can have some consistency in his holders. I looked back at it this off season, and he has had something like 10-12 holders in TC, and I think 5 different holders in regular season games. That sure doesn't help consistency.

[Scott Campbell]

Crosby is a weapon that most teams don't have. He's a keeper.

[Patler]

Patler, I hope you're wrong. Jenkins a a great 3-4 end. He stout against the run and rushes the passer So I'm hoping TT throws a big front-loaded contract at him.

Ya, I hope he stays, too. I just remember last year and this off season when he said being an end in a 3-4 is not something that any pass rushing end wants to do. The kicker was when he mentioned something about 3-4 ends not getting paid the way 4-3 ends do. I have this feeling he may not give the Packers much of a chance to sign him if a 4-3 team shows interest.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Thanks Patler for the Crosby love. I think there's no need to bring in another kicker for competition.

[Joemailman]

I wonder if the people who want to get rid of Crosby also wanted TT to get rid of Jon Ryan.

[3irty1]

Re: 2011 - Roster

I imagine that Jenkins will draw a franchise tag and may then be dealt. A talent like that doesn't simply walk. If Jenkins stays then the DL should remain a major strength.

The OL has put the first leg through the pants of rebuilding by placing Tauscher on IR. I doubt he ever starts again for the Packers. At this point I believe Bulaga's future is still at LT. Spitz will certainly leave. College will likely be back. I see an inevitable showdown between Lang and Newhouse for the RT spot long term. I won't rule out the possibility that the Packers draft an OT high which could mean Bulaga stays at RT.

If I had to rate our draft priorities:
1. OLB - weakest starter on the defense is the guy opposite of Clay right now. Also would put Zombo and Jones into a more appropriately roll as backups/special teamers. With how often we are in nickle I could even justify drafting a pure pass rusher who is platooned with Brad Jones and is rarely asked to cover.

2. WR - Seriously. The future replacement for the future is not on the team unless that guy is Brett Swain. Seems like having a WR who excels in the role of slow WR is a growing trend in this league and our guy is Donald Driver. Its time to get an insurance policy. The nice thing about players in this mold is that they are often great return men as well: Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, etc. A guy like this is a need for the offense IMO.

3. OT - For the reasons mentioned above.

4. DE - I've already got a Justin Harrelly feeling about Neal. Wilson seems like a major find but another guy is needed for this rotation. Having Jolly back would be huge and would allow Pickett to spell Raji. If Jolly comes back then this drops down to 5.

5. CB - I don't think we're as bad off here as one might think. In Woodson's current role he should be able to play for a few more years. Sam Shields has no ceiling and none of the remaining young guys look particularly bad. I doubt that the Packers select a CB unless they find great value in the high rounds (unlikely looking back at all the reaches for CB talent in 2010) or they grab a guy who can return punts and has upside as a CB.

[Guiness]

I imagine that Jenkins will draw a franchise tag and may then be dealt. A talent like that doesn't simply walk. If Jenkins stays then the DL should remain a major strength.

The OL has put the first leg through the pants of rebuilding by placing Tauscher on IR. I doubt he ever starts again for the Packers. At this point I believe Bulaga's future is still at LT. Spitz will certainly leave. College will likely be back. I see an inevitable showdown between Lang and Newhouse for the RT spot long term. I won't rule out the possibility that the Packers draft an OT high which could mean Bulaga stays at RT.

If I had to rate our draft priorities:
1. OLB - weakest starter on the defense is the guy opposite of Clay right now. Also would put Zombo and Jones into a more appropriately roll as backups/special teamers. With how often we are in nickle I could even justify drafting a pure pass rusher who is platooned with Brad Jones and is rarely asked to cover.

2. WR - Seriously. The future replacement for the future is not on the team unless that guy is Brett Swain. Seems like having a WR who excels in the role of slow WR is a growing trend in this league and our guy is Donald Driver. Its time to get an insurance policy. The nice thing about players in this mold is that they are often great return men as well: Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, etc. A guy like this is a need for the offense IMO.

3. OT - For the reasons mentioned above.

4. DE - I've already got a Justin Harrelly feeling about Neal. Wilson seems like a major find but another guy is needed for this rotation. Having Jolly back would be huge and would allow Pickett to spell Raji. If Jolly comes back then this drops down to 5.

5. CB - I don't think we're as bad off here as one might think. In Woodson's current role he should be able to play for a few more years. Sam Shields has no ceiling and none of the remaining young guys look particularly bad. I doubt that the Packers select a CB unless they find great value in the high rounds (unlikely looking back at all the reaches for CB talent in 2010) or they grab a guy who can return punts and has upside as a CB.

Good post 31. I really hope you're out to lunch on Neale though!

Everyone seems to think we need another pass rusher opposite CM, and I wonder about that. How many teams have to legitimate rushers, one from each side? If we just get someone who's solid over there, and can play both sides (so CM can move around) I think we'll be ok. With Chillar back, can't he play outside? I thought he did before. I don't think we're too bad off with him.

[steve823]

Guiness, just think of the Steelers. They have had a dominant defense for years and their secondary is average at best (except Polamalu of course). Their corners are nothing special ,but because they always have 2 great pass rushing OLB's , they got constant pressure. Now the Packers don't need an OLB, but it would really take this defense to the next level and make them a legitimate defense for years to come. I think it'll also allow Dom to get more creative with his blitzing schemes since they can't all focus on Clay if we have another good pass rushing OLB.

Another example is the Vikings. Their D-line used to be dominate and it hid their horrible secondary , but now that their D-line is struggling the whole defense tanked. Imagine what the Pack could do with a lot of pressure + a great secondary.

Just my 2 cents.

[3irty1]

I agree with this when it comes to the 3-4. In the 3-4, except on blitzes where you'd be sending 5+, the OLB opposite Clay will mostly be holding the point against the run and playing in coverage. Brad Jones is just about perfect here and is even an above average threat to rush the passer. We spend the majority of our time in a 2-4 nickel defense which sends both OLB at the same time just to have a four man rush. A larger converted DE type of player would be about perfect here. Ideally the Packers find a KGB type player in the middle rounds of the draft to fill this need as a situation pass rusher.

[Oscar]

Nice post 31. Your points made in parts 2 and 5 really stand out with me. We have Shields returning kicks for now and maybe he is the future there. But, having Tramon Williams returning punts scares me the same way as when Woodson was back there. I hope we find a pure return specialist/#5WR or CB.

Edit.. Forgot about Lee returning kicks. Still hope we find a replacement.

[Guiness]

I wonder how KGB would've looked as a 3-4 OLB?

He might've been a monster, but then again, he might've looked like Kampman.

[3irty1]

KGB in his prime would have been a great fit and might even be still playing today had he landed with a 3-4 team.

Personally I think Kampman's lack of success in our 3-4 wasn't because he was miscast. Truth was he fell off hard for the 2nd half of 2008 too when he was still a DE. He wasn't good in coverage yeah but that wouldn't be such a big issue if he had been good enough at pass rushing that you couldn't not send him at the QB.