Playoff Probabilities

[HarveyWallbangers]

Interesting read. If we go 3-3 and finish at 10-6, there's a 40% chance that we won't make the playoffs. If we go 4-2 and finish at 11-5, there's a 97% chance that we will make the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/packerswhatif.html

Interestingly, we have a higher probability of making the playoffs than the Bears (despite them holding the tiebreaker at the moment)--in large part because we play them at home and are probably favored to switch that home field advantage.

The probability ratings show that we'll win the NFC North, but get the #3 seed and host the Bears in the playoffs.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

1 Atlanta
2 Philadelphia

6 Chicago at 3 Green Bay
5 New Orleans at 4 Seattle

Tampa Bay finishes #7 and NY Giants finishes #8.

If we beat the Bears, we'd then travel to Philadelphia.

[Fred's Slacks]

Interesting. It says we could finish 8-8 and still have a tiny chance (< 1%) for a first round bye.

[channtheman]

I would NOT want to beat the Bears and then play them again the next week. Enough of losing in the playoffs to the team we just beat.

Interesting. It says we could finish 8-8 and still have a tiny chance (< 1%) for a first round bye.

Wouldn't that be something?

[Badgerinmaine]

It would be something that would seemingly require the retirement to become a monk by half of the Falcons, Giants, Bears, Eagles and a few others.

[Badgerinmaine]

(snip) Interestingly, we have a higher probability of making the playoffs than the Bears (despite them holding the tiebreaker at the moment)--in large part because we play them at home and are probably favored to switch that home field advantage.

That's probably it, because their schedules are extremely similar. The record of the Bears' future opponents so far this season is 35-25; the packers' future opponents are 34-26. Both play at Detroit, and both play the Patriots, too. The Jets-Bears game in Week 16 could have some really interesting implications in both conferences.

[Fosco33]

I like our chances for a 2 seed.

Bears have 2 - 3 wins left. Pack will win NFCN.

Eagles have an inspired Cowboy team twice.

[superfan]

The evil fan in me enjoys seeing the Vikings at <1% across the board.

Nice find.

[Brando19]

Here's my prediction (based on remaining schedule):

1. Philadelphia
2. Green Bay

6. Chicago @ 3. Atlanta
5. New Orleans @ 4. St. Louis (I think Seattle blows it down the stretch)

[Guiness]

Here's my prediction (based on remaining schedule):

1. Philadelphia
2. Green Bay

6. Chicago @ 3. Atlanta
5. New Orleans @ 4. St. Louis (I think Seattle blows it down the stretch)

Chicago in and NYG out? Not so sure about that, but things are bad in the big apple.

St-Louis in...*sigh*

[CaptainKickass]

1 Atlanta
2 Philadelphia

6 Chicago at 3 Green Bay
5 New Orleans at 4 Seattle

Tampa Bay finishes #7 and NY Giants finishes #8.

If we beat the Bears, we'd then travel to Philadelphia.

I saw this and as a gut reaction said "Fuck, if Seattle actually makes the playoffs, I bet we'll host 'em at Lambeau again"

[sheepshead]

I dont think the Bears will hold up. That last game will be a non issue. The wild card doesnt come out of the NFC North. Just a prediction based on Chicago's personnel.

[bobblehead]

Pack goes 5-1 the rest of the way....you heatd it here first. No one is playing better right now. Chiily and wade got the wrong matchup at the wrong time.

[Fred's Slacks]

I understand the whole division winners get in thing, it makes sense but when you have a division as bad as the west it really makes me question how a team like Seattle or St Louis can host a playoff game at maybe 8-8? They need to institute a minimum of 9 wins to get the top 4 spots. Unless of course only 3 teams have more than 9 wins. I don't know, I like the system they have but I think it needs one small tweak like this to make it a little better. Can you imagine we (or someone else) could finish 11-5 and not get in. Mean while Seattle or St Louis gets to host a game? Rediculous.

[channtheman]

I understand the whole division winners get in thing, it makes sense but when you have a division as bad as the west it really makes me question how a team like Seattle or St Louis can host a playoff game at maybe 8-8? They need to institute a minimum of 9 wins to get the top 4 spots. Unless of course only 3 teams have more than 9 wins. I don't know, I like the system they have but I think it needs one small tweak like this to make it a little better. Can you imagine we (or someone else) could finish 11-5 and not get in. Mean while Seattle or St Louis gets to host a game? Rediculous.

The easy solution is that every division winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, but not necessarily a home game. They are still seeded 1-6 based on record and other applicable tiebreakers.

[Tarlam!]

The easy solution is that every division winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, but not necessarily a home game. They are still seeded 1-6 based on record and other applicable tiebreakers.

I like it. Make it so, Roger!